IDP Spotlight: ILB D.J. Williams, Denver Broncos

  Posted 8/13 by Jene Bramel - Exclusive to Footballguys.com

During his first five seasons in the league, D.J. Williams has been moved from weak side linebacker to strong side linebacker to middle linebacker and back to weak side linebacker under a number of different defensive coordinators. After struggling statistically during his first three seasons as a SLB in the base defense only, Williams finally put his athletic ability to use as the Broncos' MLB in 2007 when he racked up 106 solos and a top five fantasy finish in most leagues. Last season, Williams was again off to a solid start after being moved to the weak side before a midseason knee injury cost him five games. This season, Williams again finds himself in a new playbook with a new defensive coordination in a new position, as the WILB in Mike Nolan's 3-4 base defense.

This offseason, Williams has evoked strong opinions during discussions about his 2009 potential.

Those optimistic for another strong statistical season argue that Williams has proven capable of big tackle numbers when put in a position to succeed. He was able to take advantage of a very favorable MLB role in Jim Bates' defense in 2007 and remained productive as an every-down WLB on a defense flush with tackle opportunity last year. His situation this season will mirror both of his big years. Mike Nolan brings a 3-4 front that functions much like a 4-3, and the WILB role Williams is slated to play is often a big tackle producing spot. Players like Keith Brooking, Ray Lewis, Donnie Edwards and Patrick Willis have all had 100+ solo tackle seasons from this WILB position. With the Denver defense in transition, Williams should again see plenty of tackle opportunity. It's a prime setup for big numbers.

Those not so optimistic have a number of legitimate concerns. First, Williams has shown plenty of athleticism but still has yet to display strong football instincts. The new scheme should allow Williams to flow to the ball and keep false steps from hurting him too much, but the lack of instincts may still cost him tackle opportunities. Second, what looks to be a relatively weak defensive line could force Williams to shed more blockers, another area in which he has struggled. Finally, Williams missed much of OTAs after having surgery to repair a rotator cuff injury. Shoulder injuries can be tough to recover from and sometimes limit the ability to effectively wrap and tackle. The missed OTA practices may also hurt his transition to the new scheme.

The FBG consensus ranking has Williams 5th overall among linebackers in mid-July, with the majority of staffers holding the more optimistic opinion. Williams has overcome his limitations during times of above-average opportunity in past seasons and is expected to be cleared to practice fully during training camp. He will undoubtedly have a top ten ADP among linebackers. Expect to draft him soon after the consensus top three linebackers have come off the board if you want him as your LB1.

Positives

• Has been productive at multiple linebacker positions
• Favorable role at WILB in a 1-gap 3-4 front
• Likely to have well above-average team tackle opportunity

Negatives

• Relatively weak defensive line could hurt his ability to flow to the ball
• Shoulder surgery set him back in OTAs and cost him snaps during 3-4 transition
• If Broncos struggle, a switch back to the 4-3 could limit his opportunity at OLB
  

Final Thoughts

Williams is in a very strong situation for fantasy production this year. He'll play a favorable position in the new Denver 3-4 front, surrounded by teammates unlikely to put up big competition for tackles on a defense likely to see plenty of opportunity. Williams could disappoint if he struggles to successfully transition or is unable to recover fully from offseason shoulder surgery, but neither concern seems particularly likely. Consensus opinions have Williams well into the LB1 tier. He's a strong bet to meet those expectations and finish in the top ten in 2009.

Quotes from the IDP Spotlight Message Thread

To view the entire thread, click here.

5Rings:
"I think he has a legitimate shot of being LB1 overall. I generally love LBs on bad teams, and boy oh boy do the Broncos fit the bill. This D has so little talent, DJ might get 200 tackles by midseason. Seriously...I see many parallels between DJ this year and Patrick Willis in the last few years:

• DJ is in the prime 3-4 WILB spot
• DJ has no competition for tackles from a weak LB corps
• Denver is a poor team and I see them likely losing the time of possession battle = more tackle opportunities
• Denver DL won't steal tackles

The negative is his health--can he last 16 games? Not many big plays, but the dude will be cleaning up all year long."

Choke:
"The prime spot is the SILB... or more correctly the LILB spot... of the 3-4. No doubt about it. His position gets lots of coverage responsibility at RILB.

As for my thoughts on DJ, I think he is very miscast in the 3-4. Which is opposite of what most everyone is saying. Whenever I've watched him he always appeared very small or light in the pants for a LB. Not a good thing in a 3-4 in my estimation. But his size is listed at 6'1", 240lbs which really isn't bad. He has obviously added weight over the past couple years. Last year he had 4 of his 11 games show 9+ solos. Not sure if that's going to happen again with his new position.

I don't have DJ as a #1 (top 12) LB. A solid #2 with a very nice ceiling. No one should overlook him averaging a phenomenal 8.5 tackles per contest over the past 2 seasons."

Jene Bramel:
"There's a strong statistical argument that the WILB in a 1-gap 3-4 front (which Mike Nolan has favored when he's run the 3-4) is a very favorable position for tackle production. Keith Brooking, Ray Lewis and Patrick Willis have all racked up tackles from that spot in recent years. Knock D.J. Williams for his questionable instincts if you want, but you can't ignore his athleticism, which will serve him well in this role, or his recent history of production when he's been an every-down player. It's another perfect storm of sorts -- a favorable role on a defense likely to see well above-average tackle opportunity with no obvious competition for tackles from his teammates. I'd expand my stud LB tier to include him as the fourth wheel (with Ruud, Willis and Beason) if not for durability concerns and the small chance that Nolan uses enough 4-3 in the base defense to cut down on some opportunity.

I don't think there's much chance of a Vilma-like fall. DJ Williams has better size, hasn't shown any signs of whining about a position change (which he's done nearly every season of his career now), will play in a more friendly 3-4 scheme and his shoulder injury isn't likely to have the impact that Vilma's knee injury did."

MAC_32:
"I see a repeat of Jonathan Vilma's clash with the 3-4...maybe not that severely, but enough that I'd pass or be selling high."

bigal0303:
"DJ Williams is definitely a ball hawk but you have to be an extreme elite backer in a 3-4. I had Willis last year and he is elite. DJ Williams has injury issues and a defense who if healthy may give tackles to other backers plus the acquisition of Brian Dawkins a tackle specialist. I think DJ falls a little. Yes he would be a stud in a 4-3."

Birdie048:
"I am leery of him returning to 100% after his injury last year. That he has not been cleared medically to participate yet is not a good sign. It might be just a formality, but he could not join the OTAs (watched from sideline).

• Positives:
  Talent (2004 #17 pick)
  Physical attributes (6'1" 242 lbs)
  Age (27 next week)
  Soft NT (Fields is 5th round talent)
• Negatives:
  Andra Davis next to him
  Injury History / Recovery
  Team turmoil
  New coaches
  No big play ability (2 Int & 6 sacks in 5 yr career)

In tackle-heavy leagues, he could/should be Top 15. In leagues with scoring of big play bonuses, he drops to mid-20 value. He just does not excite me as a great value. Will he last 16 games in a new scheme? Too many questions IMO."

bcr8f:
"I like him this year in that scheme too. He may get that tackle 8 yards downfield, but get them I think he will."

Buffaloes:
"Unfortunately, the DL does not look as if it has improved so Williams may have to deal with more congestion while in 3-4 sets. It's not clear how often the team will play out of an odd front but I would think that Williams' production might take a slight hit when they do. That being said, he is a tackle machine and should still be a top option in tackle heavy leagues due to the fact he is a 3-down LB and has the luxury of playing Will in the 4-3 and WILB in the 3-4. A steady performance in tackle heavy leagues can be expected."

Projections

IDP Scoring System

• 1.5 pts per Solo Tackle
• 0.75 pts per Assisted Tackle
• 4 pts per Sack
• 4 pts per Forced Fumble
• 4 pts per Fumble Recovery
• 5 pts per Interception
• 1.5 pts per Pass Defensed
• 6 pts per Touchdown
• 2 pts per Safety