IDP Spotlight: ILB Curtis Lofton, Atlanta Falcons

  Posted 8/6 by Jene Bramel - Exclusive to Footballguys.com

When compared to the recent monster debut seasons from linebackers DeMeco Ryans, Patrick Willis and Jerod Mayo, Curtis Lofton's 2008 rookie numbers were hugely disappointing. Lofton managed only 67 solo tackles and finished well out of the top 25 fantasy linebackers. At first glance, it appears that Lofton may not become the great NFL and IDP talent many hoped last year. However, a closer look at his numbers tells a very reassuring tale.

Most who follow IDP developments closely were aware early in 2008 that Lofton wasn't playing in Atlanta's subpackages on passing downs. Here at FBG, we've shown in the past just how damaging the loss of nickel snaps can be to a linebacker's production. In Lofton's case, the player participation logs at profootballfocus.com hammer the point home with authority. In 2008, the logs show that the Falcon defense was on the field for 1119 snaps. Lofton was on the sidelines for 491 of them. That's 44% of his team's defensive snaps. In that context, Lofton's 67 solos are no longer a disappointment. They're extremely impressive and absolutely in line with the talent many saw in him entering the NFL.

Very early this offseason, the Falcons committed to Lofton as the leader of their defense, elevating him to an every-down role while handing him the keys to the defensive huddle. That all but assures Lofton of nearly twice as much playing time this season. They also decided not to re-sign outside linebackers Keith Brooking and Michael Boley and strong safety Lawyer Milloy, the team's most productive tacklers in 2007 and 2008. None of their replacements is likely to provide big competition for tackles.

To be clear, it's probably too optimistic to simply project Lofton's 2008 numbers over 1119 snaps and expect him to approach 120 solo tackles. Lofton has yet to prove that he can handle an every-down role and hold up well enough in coverage to make plays. Certainly, not all defensive snaps are alike. Lofton isn't likely to make tackles at the same rate in subpackages as he did in the base defense. Given the overall situational changes, though, it's relatively easy to project Lofton to 90 or more solos this season. He may have considerably more upside than that.

Despite his poor finish in the IDP rankings last season, Lofton is still garnering plenty of attention in 2009. Dynasty owners with any experience know better than to give up on a player like Lofton. Many are aware of the missed nickel snaps in 2008. As we enter July, Lofton is the 13th ranked linebacker among the FBG IDP staff. He's not likely to come cheaply. It's likely that his ADP later this summer will be that of a top twenty linebacker. Shrewd owners may still get him as their LB2, but it's not safe to assume that he'll fall out of the top twenty backers off the board unless you're in a weaker league.

Positives

• All-around fundamental talent who proved himself an effective run-stopper as a rookie
• Now an every-down linebacker with a clear role in all subpackages
• Turnover at OLB and SS may decrease his competition for tackles

Negatives

• Has not proven himself in coverage
• Full time duty could work against him if tired legs hurt his run support numbers
• Still plenty of hype may hurt his value in drafts
  

Final Thoughts

Lofton is a stud talent whose rookie numbers were hurt tremendously because he sat in passing situations. His per snap tackle rate in the base defense and new role as an every-down player point to a much higher stat line this year. Lofton can arguably be projected to 100 solo tackles if he plays to 2008 form and thrives in the nickel. There's some risk in assuming LB2+ numbers from a player who has yet to fully prove himself, but Lofton's talent makes him a safe gamble. Lofton has a big name and enough hype that it may be difficult to target him as a late value play in your draft, so be prepared to go get him after the first 10-12 linebackers are drafted. Those lucky enough to land him as a LB3 or later will be extremely pleased with the value he'll give them.

Quotes from the IDP Spotlight Message Thread

To view the entire thread, click here.

Choke:
"I remain big on Lofton. Last year could have been expected with plenty of veteran options still on the team. Now he controls the inside and doesn't have a bunch of competition for the tackles in Atlanta. Big, strong and aggressive, he should now be able to add some focus and understanding to his physical tools. He could put up very lofty numbers, though his offense being second in the league in rushing attempts and twelfth in overall time of possession (something that could very much improve with Matt Ryan's maturation) may work against him in some respects. Not sure if big plays are in his immediate future, but his tackle numbers certainly could be higher than my current projection."

pnewtonjr:
"Now that he knows the scheme and Peterson is there to help him I believe that Lofton could challenge for the #1 LB spot this year if his big plays increase. I believe that they will with the additions of both Shockey (basically) and Winslow to the division."

Jene Bramel:
"For a guy who made only 67 solos in 2008, Curtis Lofton isn't flying under the radar at all this year. And he shouldn't be. 67 solos in part-time duty (only 60% of his defense's snaps) last year, a clear path to every-down duty this season, turnover at both OLB positions and at strong safety, a young and improving offense that should have the Falcons playing from ahead more often than not and all kinds of talent will come together in a perfect storm for Lofton this season.

Regarding the Falcons offense, playing ahead might bring Lofton a little more big play opportunity. When you're looking at a marginal talent, more rushing attempts against may be a factor. When you've got a big time talent without clear competition for tackles, however, a little extra big play value pushes that player higher in a given tier for me. Though it sounds counter-intuitive, I think this is something that has worked in the favor of guys like Ray Lewis in past seasons."

FUBAR:
"My only concern as a Lofton owner is if the offense is able to control the ball too much, the opposing offense ends up throwing more as they play from behind, so I don't know about the 100 solos. Only 5 players netted 100 solos last year, and out of those only Ruud played for a team whose offense wasn't in the bottom 10 in plays."

Bob Magaw:
"Lofton is a legit talent...he impressed me on film... a New Orleans-based independent scout once told me that the single most important trait he looked for in a LB prospect was their first step... he has a good one (& looks instinctive). ATL offense is ahead of the defense so they could be on the field a lot, which should equal bigger numbers. He seems destined to crack the top 20 LBs with top 10 & even top 5 possible."

J Giles Band:
"Lofton was maybe even better than advertised as a rookie. Despite playing only as a 2-down LB, he managed 94 tackles. What's changed: 3-down LB role, expected offensive improvement, Mike Peterson addition, no Keith Brooking, no Michael Boley. Discussion in this forum has repeatedly focused on Lofton's ability to make 94 stops when playing only 60% of the Falcons defensive snaps, and with good reason.

Prediction: with even static tackle opportunity in 2009, it isn't hard to see why a breakout season is almost a certainty. With more passing situations an increase in glory stats should accompany a substantial tackle increase. The benefit of an every down LB role should provide Lofton a LB1 ceiling and a LB2 floor. The top 10 is a distinct possibility."

Projections

IDP Scoring System

• 1.5 pts per Solo Tackle
• 0.75 pts per Assisted Tackle
• 4 pts per Sack
• 4 pts per Forced Fumble
• 4 pts per Fumble Recovery
• 5 pts per Interception
• 1.5 pts per Pass Defensed
• 6 pts per Touchdown
• 2 pts per Safety