IDP Spotlight: DE Chris Long, St. Louis Rams

  Posted 8/13 by Aaron Rudnicki - Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Chris Long clearly has an exciting skill set that helped encourage the Rams to select him with the #2 overall pick in the 2008 draft. As the son of Howie Long, he has Hall of Fame bloodlines that suggest he will have the temperament and work ethic to get the most out of his natural talent. While at Virginia, Long did not really get a ton of attention until his senior season. He had been a good player up until that point, but was only credited with 7 sacks over his first 3 seasons. He exploded during his senior season, however, and finished the year ranked 3rd in the country with 14 sacks while also averaging an impressive 6+ tackles per game.

Long has ideal size for the DE position and he is also an impressive athlete with an explosive first step. He is a high motor player who never gives up on a play, which allows him to make plays in pursuit; but he also has good functional strength to anchor against the run. It is not at all uncommon for rookie defensive ends to struggle early in their careers as they build strength and develop their pass rush techniques. Long had a strong start to his rookie season with 20 solo tackles and 4 sacks in his first 7 games, but he only managed 12 solo tackles and 0 sacks in the last 9 games. In his defense, the Rams were not a very good team last year and he has very little talent surrounding him.

This year, the Rams have brought in a new coaching staff led by head coach Steve Spagnuolo, who brings a very aggressive approach that he developed during his time with the Eagles and Giants. The new scheme figures to focus heavily on putting pressure on opposing QBs and it seems apparent that Long will become a focal point of this approach. Spagnuolo helped bring out big sack numbers from defensive players like Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, and Mathias Kiwanuka over the past couple seasons so his addition should certainly benefit Long as well. The offense also figures to take a more conservative approach this year that relies heavily on the running game, which should keep the defense in more games and give players like Long more opportunities to rush the passer. The level of surrounding talent is still an issue but the Rams have made some moves to address that by drafting MLB James Laurinaitis and signing SS James Butler. Both should help solidify the middle of the Rams defense and give the defense more 3rd and long opportunities.

Positives

• Very intense, athletic, and intelligent player who has the potential to develop into one of the league's elite pass rushers
• Coaching change should result in a lot more pressure being put on opposing QBs and a significant upgrade in Long's sack total
• His 1st half production as a rookie last year (23 solos, 5 assists, and 4 sacks) ranked him among the best fantasy DL in the league so he's already proven that he can be a productive an effective fantasy option

Negatives

• Faded badly down the stretch last year, registering only 9 solos, 3 assists, and 0 sacks in his last 8 games
• Corner play has shown potential but remains a question mark
• Needs improved overall play from his defensive linemates like Leonard Little and Adam Carriker to limit the attention he sees from blockers
  

Final Thoughts

Based on the early success we saw from Chris Long last year, I think he's a good bet to put up similar numbers this year but sustain it for the entire year. The coaching change and the full year of experience should give him a good opportunity to be successful. I'm not sure he'll be able to reach double digit sacks until the Rams become considerably better as a team, both offensively and defensively, but he clearly is one of the more exciting young DE talents in the league and I would be surprised if he's not a top-5 player within the next 2 or 3 years. I expect a DL2-type season with DL1 upside if many of the players around him wind up having very successful seasons.

Quotes from the IDP Spotlight Message Thread

To view the entire thread, click here.

Benchwarmers:
"Chris Long should be much better in year 2. He should be in the top 15 of DL and finish with 11 sacks."

HMH:
Benchwarmer, as a Rams fan I like your enthusiasm, but 11 sacks might be a reach. I would be happy to see 7 to 8 out of Long. The D-Line is still a work in progress, but Spag's presence should help out a great bit. On the other side, I think if Little can stay healthy and the move of Will Witherspoon back to WILL this year will help take some of the pressure off from a pass rushing aspect. I'm going to be a little more conservative and say he winds up with 7 sacks."

5Rings:
"Chris Long is a fantasy enigma. He's the best player on a terrible Rams D, but his numbers will be affected by:

1. Teams will scheme for him
2. Decreased sack opportunities since the Rams will be noncompetitive in most games
3. Increased tackle opportunities

I predict he will finish with 6 sacks but still be a solid DL1 in tackle-heavy leagues"

Choke:
"I like what I'm seeing from others on Long. Solid player with a high ceiling who has some obstacles that derive from his team. In 2008, Long had almost all of his production in the first half (28/4) of the season and his second half was horrible (12/0). Did he hit the rookie wall? Look for him to be a very solid choice as a DL3 in his sophomore campaign."

Projections

IDP Scoring System

• 1.5 pts per Solo Tackle
• 0.75 pts per Assisted Tackle
• 4 pts per Sack
• 4 pts per Forced Fumble
• 4 pts per Fumble Recovery
• 5 pts per Interception
• 1.5 pts per Pass Defensed
• 6 pts per Touchdown
• 2 pts per Safety