IDP Spotlight: S Brian Dawkins, Denver Broncos

  Posted 8/13 by Jeff Pasquino - Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Brian Dawkins left Philadelphia under confusing terms at the outset of free agency this past March, finding himself a member of the Denver Broncos when the dust had settled. Both the Eagles and Dawkins were surprised by the end result, as Philadelphia thought that they would have the cap room and money to sign him for certain - but at a reasonable price. Once they learned that Denver was throwing $5 million a year type numbers at him (the contract is five years on paper but it is really a two-year deal) they decided that he was not worth that price tag. The front office of the Eagles decided that a few days' worth of fan reaction and bad press at letting the defensive squad leader leave would be worth it rather and overpaying for the 36-year old veteran.

So why did the Eagles not pursue Dawkins harder - and more importantly, if he was so valuable, why did they even allow him to get to free agency in the first place? Surely the could have done something in February before it got to the point where they could lose him. Did they want him to leave? I believe that they did, and that free agency was a convenient excuse to let him go.

Those who watched the Eagles closely last year saw that Dawkins was a defensive liability on passing downs. Teams like the Cardinals and the Cowboys would spread the field and put three or four wide receivers on the field to force Dawkins into a one on one matchup. Single coverage is exactly where you want a heavy hitting, virtual linebacker who wears a defensive back jersey to be when you are on offense. The teams that could dictate to the Eagles' secondary did just that and targeted the WR opposite of Dawkins.

Now we find Dawkins in the Mile High City on a team that needs both a heavy hitter at strong safety and some leadership both on and off the field. Dawkins can definitely do the latter, but he is in foreign territory as he switches teams for the first time as a pro football player. How he adjusts remains to be seen, as well as how the Denver defense incorporates him into the mix.

Positives

• Denver is a team that could improve on defense and still be below average - which is great news from a fantasy standpoint.
• Dawkins will be looked upon as an emotional player and on the field leader. He should be between the white lines nearly every down.
• The schedule should be favorable as Dawkins and the Broncos will be playing the NFC East this year, along with Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers (twice) and Matt Cassel (twice) - all quarterbacks that could easily drop back 30 or more times a game.
• Dawkins will be motivated to show that he still has plenty to give back, and a return trip to Philadelphia in Week 16 could provide a venue for a big performance.

Negatives

• Switching from Philadelphia, where Dawkins played his entire NFL career, to Denver will be a huge change.
• While a true locker room leader and a great on the field motivator, many who watched Dawkins play last season (including myself) would say that he has lost a step - possibly two - and is not the same player he once was.
• The Eagles may have botched the negotiations with Dawkins, but there was clearly a reason that they let him at least get to free agency. I believe that I am not alone in thinking that they would be fine if Dawkins left, as Quintin Mikell was ready to step right in at strong safety
• It remains to be seen how the Broncos utilize Dawkins. During his 10 seasons with the Eagles, Dawkins freelanced more and was allowed to play closer to the line of scrimmage, which is his strength. If Denver gets cute and asks him to drop back and play in coverage, Dawkins will likely struggle.
  

Final Thoughts

Brian Dawkins enters his 11th year in the NFL, but the veteran is facing the challenge of switching teams for the first time. Dawkins was a Top 10 safety in four of his past seven campaigns as an Eagle, but Philadelphia had him coming up more towards the line and into the box for run support rather than playing deep and in coverage. While Eagles fans lament the loss of their defensive on the field leader, several observers (including myself) believe that he was become more and more of a liability on defense, especially in coverage. The aged veteran has always been known for hitting hard, but combining that with what appeared to be the loss of a step in his quickness led to many borderline late hits last season. Dawkins was also targeted often when opposing teams went to three and four wide receiver packages due to his weakness in coverage. As long as Denver employs him as what he does best - creeping up and into the box and bringing a big hit on occasion - Dawkins should be fine and could put of DB1 fantasy numbers.

Quotes from the IDP Spotlight Message Thread

To view the entire thread, click here.

Jene Bramel:
"Brian Dawkins will turn 36 during the season and is moving to a new team and a new scheme this year. Rumors of his demise are everywhere. But there's plenty to like about him this year. From his roaming free safety role, he was still able to put up 64 solos last year. The big play numbers that usually buoyed those so-so tackle stats rebounded some last year after a shaky 2007 (three sacks, six forced fumbles and six passes defensed). He's moving to a team that should provide plenty of tackle opportunity and he's expected to shift into more of a run support role as the Broncos' likely SS. You could do worse at DB3 late in your draft."

Aaron Rudnicki:
"Dawkins has finished as a #1 fantasy safety 5 times in the past 7 seasons and the only two misses (2003, 2007) came during injury-shortened seasons. He'll turn 36 years old in October, but he finished the 2008 season extremely strong with 28 solo tackles, 2 sacks, and 3 forced fumbles in his last 5 games including 3 in the playoffs. The Broncos defense lacks the personnel to make a quick transition to a 3-4 scheme and will likely struggle both generating pressure and getting off the field. That should help out Dawkins, who will get his fair share of blitzing opportunities and plenty of tackles as a result. He suffered a broken hand that could force him to miss most of the preseason but reports indicate he should be ready to go for the season opener and he's a veteran who should be able to pick up the new defense pretty quickly."

Projections

IDP Scoring System

• 1.5 pts per Solo Tackle
• 0.75 pts per Assisted Tackle
• 4 pts per Sack
• 4 pts per Forced Fumble
• 4 pts per Fumble Recovery
• 5 pts per Interception
• 1.5 pts per Pass Defensed
• 6 pts per Touchdown
• 2 pts per Safety