IDP Spotlight: ILB Barrett Ruud, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  Posted 8/6 by Jene Bramel - Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Barrett Ruud was a highly regarded second round draft pick in 2005 and many IDP observers had high hopes for big fantasy production. Ruud found himself stuck behind veteran Shelton Quarles during his first two seasons, then got off to a hot start in his first year as a starter before a knee injury limited him during the second half of 2007. Ruud's supporters were finally rewarded last year with a 100+ solo tackle, two sack and three interception performance that has put him squarely in any conversation about the top tier of fantasy linebackers this season. It might seem overly optimistic to project still more improvement for Ruud in 2009, but there's a strong argument that this season will be his best yet.

That argument begins with the new direction the Tampa Bay defense will take this season. Gone is Monte Kiffin and his Tampa-2 playbook, which often sends the middle linebacker sprinting back in coverage and out of the prime areas for tackles. Instead, the Buccaneers have hired Jim Bates as their defensive coordinator, who will install a playbook that has been extremely favorable to middle linebackers in the past. Most recently, Denver's D.J. Williams put up over 100 solos in a Bates defense, but the list of stud middle linebackers who have benefited from this playbook also includes Zach Thomas and Nick Barnett in recent season among others over the past two decades. The defense funnels ballcarriers back inside rather than forcing them outside toward pursuit as the Tampa-2 did. It's a major upgrade in potential tackle opportunity for Ruud.

Also gone are veteran rangy outside linebackers Derrick Brooks and Cato June. Their replacements have yet to prove themselves durable, fundamentally sound options. Angelo Crowell could be an effective SLB, but there are significant durability concerns after a knee injury last preseason that may not yet be fully healed. Last season's strong safety Jermaine Phillips is the early favorite to play WLB, but he's unproven and undersized. Backups Quincy Black and Geno Hayes have yet to prove themselves ready for starting duty. The transition at the OLB and strong safety spots may also provide Ruud with added pursuit opportunities.

Finding the potential negatives in Ruud's situation this season is a difficult task. Ruud put any significant durability concerns aside with a healthy 2008 season. Even unexpectedly good seasons from his teammates at outside linebackers shouldn't put a major dent in his tackle production in this scheme. Ruud could be hindered by a relatively weak defensive tackle rotation that is shallow and undersized for the Bates defensive philosophy. If the tackle rotation cannot keep Ruud free to fill gaps and bring down ballcarriers, the upper limits of Ruud's upside may prove unreachable.

Positives

• Proven stud with two seasons of solid production
• New defensive scheme extremely favorable to MLBs
• Marginal competition for tackles at OLB and SS

Negatives

• Better than expected OLB play could hurt his pursuit opportunity
• Shaky defensive tackle group could force him to shed blocks frequently
  

Final Thoughts

Ruud looks like a lock for LB1 production this year. His all-around talent, favorable defensive scheme and unproven surrounding cast put 100 or more solo tackles within reach again in 2009. His situation is so favorable that the rarefied air of 110+ solos is also well within reach. He could rightfully be considered alongside Patrick Willis and Jon Beason as the first linebacker off the board this year. Prospective owners should have no concerns making him the cornerstone of their IDP roster this year.

Quotes from the IDP Spotlight Message Thread

To view the entire thread, click here.

J Giles Band:
"Ruud had a terrific 2008 with 137 total tackles and a nice mixture of glory stats (3 sacks, 2 INT, 6 PDs). He was easily a LB1 in any format.

• What's changed: new coach, new defensive coordinator (Jim Bates), new scheme, no Derrick Brooks, no Jeff Garcia. Between the scheme change going away from the Tampa-2 (thus now funneling plays to the middle), loss of Brooks, flux & inexperience at the OLB spots, and expected regression on the offensive side of the ball (McCown, Leftwich or Freeman at QB), Ruud should see better than average tackle opportunity, certainly better than any point in his career.
• Prediction: a 137 tackle season is difficult to top, but expect Ruud's tackle numbers to increase across the board. He will be a strong candidate to lead the league in tackles in 2009. Along with this increase, I predict a slight decrease in his glory stats as the Bucs play more from behind than in recent years. Regardless, he remains a certain LB1 and is as sure a lock to be a top 5 LB as there is. The #1 overall LB is not out of the question."

Jene Bramel:
"Long time readers of the forum know the argument here. A solid talent in the middle of a Jim Bates defense without obvious competition for tackles is in line for a huge solo tackle season. In this case, that solid talent is Barrett Ruud -- a player who was on pace for 100+ solos before a knee injury slowed him during the second half of 2007 and who topped 100 solos in 2008. If you trust the history of this scheme, Ruud could well top 110 solos this season. I think he's the #1 IDP this season."

Larry Thomas:
"Ruud is not a thumper and struggles shedding blockers, but he's better-than average athletically while also smart, active, and always around the ball. In 2008 Ruud had double digit tackles in five of his final 9 games, a 112 solo pace over that span. I agree with Jene that he is line for a big year."

bigal0303:
"I have dropped Ruud to the 4th spot at LB. Looking at the team, I see Angelo Crowell stealing a lot of his tackles and a healthy run-stopping Jermaine Phillips will fight for tackles as well."

Projections

IDP Scoring System

• 1.5 pts per Solo Tackle
• 0.75 pts per Assisted Tackle
• 4 pts per Sack
• 4 pts per Forced Fumble
• 4 pts per Fumble Recovery
• 5 pts per Interception
• 1.5 pts per Pass Defensed
• 6 pts per Touchdown
• 2 pts per Safety