IDP Spotlight: DE Aaron Schobel, Buffalo Bills

  Posted 8/6 by Aaron Rudnicki - Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Aaron Schobel averaged over 10 sacks/year from 2002 to 2007 and only missed 1 game during those 6 years. Unfortunately, however, he got off to a slow start in 2008 and then suffered a LisFranc sprain that wound up ending his season. Given that he will be 32 years old when the season starts and is coming off a serious foot injury, can he get back to his normal level of production?

Throughout most of his career, Schobel has been a very streaky player. He has gotten off to slow starts in the past but usually finished strong. However, he has just 7.5 sacks in his last 21 games played. That negative trend is cause for some concern and raises some doubts about how he is being used in the Bills defense, but he did enjoy his best season as a pro in 2006 during defensive coordinator Perry Fewell's first year with the team. He also managed to play in the Pro Bowl following his last two healthy seasons.

Schobel is a very good athlete, but it's obvious that his pass rush effectiveness will be limited if he's not at full strength. Initial reports this preseason indicate that he's playing well and creating pressure in practices. If that holds up, there is a good chance that he should wind up among the most productive fantasy defensive ends in the league once again. Even if he doesn't get back to double digit sacks, Schobel is a reliable run defender who frequently ranks among the best at his position in solo tackles as well.

Part of the problem for Schobel in recent years is that the Bills have lacked any secondary pass rushers that could take some pressure and attention away from him. Offenses frequently slid their protection to his side of the field or ran plays away from him to neutralize him because they weren't afraid of anyone else. To address this point, the Bills spent their first round draft pick on Aaron Maybin out of Penn State. Although undersized, he was regarded as the best pure pass rusher in this year's draft and could help make things difficult for opposing QBs in passing situations. The presence of Marcus Stroud inside should also help free up Schobel.

The Bills are also expected to show significant improvement on offense this season, primarily due to the signing of Terrell Owens. While the rebuilt offensive line remains a major question mark, Owens should help the Bills become more explosive and productive on offense. That, in turn should force opposing teams to have to pass more against the Bills, creating more pass rush opportunities for Schobel and his teammates.

Positives

• Averaged 42.5 solo tackles and 10 sacks/year for 6 straight seasons from 2002 to 2007.
• Strong against the run and pass, which allows him to play in all situations.
• Drafting of Aaron Maybin should make things easier for him.
• Terrell Owens and improved offense should create more pass rush opportunities for the Bills defense.

Negatives

• 32 year old player coming off a serious foot injury that could linger.
• Even before the injury, his sack totals were disappointing with just 7.5 in his last 21 games.
• Bills rotate their defensive linemen actively and appear to have plenty of depth at DE, which could limit the number of snaps that Schobel gets.
  

Final Thoughts

The defensive end position in fantasy football is not very deep. Given the growing numbers of teams that use a 3-4 front, there are fewer players out there that are playing DE in a 4-3 front and even fewer who play on the more favorable right side of the line. Schobel is one of those such players and he has proven himself to be a reliable and productive fantasy option in the past. While the foot injury is a major concern, initial reports are optimistic that he'll be back to normal by the time the season arrives. While a top-10 season is probably unlikely, I think he'll make a very good DE2 with plenty of upside in most scoring systems. His value has probably never been lower so he should be relatively easy to acquire if you are willing to accept some risk.

Quotes from the IDP Spotlight Message Thread

To view the entire thread, click here.

therokie0070:
"Schobel is 32 and had a serious injury last year. This alone is enough to scare me, however when healthy he can be a force and is proven. I think if he is healthy, the addition of Maybin will help his stats."

Jene Bramel:
"Schobel is a tough player to project this season. There are strong arguments to rank him near the top ten or out of the top twenty. Optimistically, his history of two way production, robust quarterback hit numbers despite low sack numbers and reportedly successful recovery from last season's Lisfranc injury could put him back in the top ten. Realistically, his age, recent significant injury and inability to finish in the pocket should temper expectations. I like Schobel to rebound, but would be leery rostering him as my DL1."

Sigmund Bloom:
"I agree with Jene, a bounce back to historical levels is hard to expect. Maybe if Maybin is hot out of the gate, the Bills can fluster opposing offensive lines, but it's just as likely that Maybin gets manhandled early as he learns the ropes. Schobel elected to NOT have surgery on his injury - I'm not sure what to make of that, except that if he has even a little issue early, I'll bail on him in any leagues that I own him."

Projections

IDP Scoring System

• 1.5 pts per Solo Tackle
• 0.75 pts per Assisted Tackle
• 4 pts per Sack
• 4 pts per Forced Fumble
• 4 pts per Fumble Recovery
• 5 pts per Interception
• 1.5 pts per Pass Defensed
• 6 pts per Touchdown
• 2 pts per Safety