2009 IDP Overvalued Players

Posted 8/24 by the FBG IDP Staff - Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Defensive Linemen

DE Justin Tuck, NYG (ADP: DL3)

Jeff Pasquino - Tuck could certainly be a Top 10 DE for 2009, but third overall? For a part-time player, that's a high risk draft choice for me. Osi Umenyiora and Mathias Kiwanuka will steal some playing time from Tuck, and the Giants' defensive tackles can also do some damage. Tuck had over 50 solo tackles and double-digit sacks last year, but that was the first time in his career for both of those levels - and that was without Umenyiora. With a three-man rotation likely, Tuck's totals from 2009 could drop 20-25% which will make it difficult for him to remain atop the DE fantasy list.

DE Gaines Adams, TB (ADP: DL10)

Larry Thomas - Ranked #10 among defensive lineman, Adams has the potential, just too risky to take as a DL 1. Should thrive in the new Jim Bates scheme, but I'd take more of a conservative approach with him and land him as your DL 2.

DE Justin Smith, SF (ADP: DL11)

John Norton - Much of Smith's value/production last season was directly related to the fact that he lined up at OLB fairly often. His role has changed heading into this season and Smith is now a full time 3-4 end. There were only three true 3-4 ends in the top 30 last season and none inside the top 15. The role change hurts Smith's chances considerably.

DT Albert Haynesworth, WAS (ADP: DL12)

Jene Bramel - Haynesworth didn't put together a consistent statistical season until it was time to play for a paycheck. He's never played more than 14 games in a season. He's rarely projected to more than 40 solos or five sacks. And he has no business being drafted in the top twelve in DL combined leagues, even in a pretty weak DL group this year.

Anthony Borbely - Haynesworth's current ADP is DL12, which is a spot usually reserved for stud DEs. Interior linemen occasionally have a big fantasy season like Haynesworth did last year, but very few do it regularly. Aside from that, Haynesworth is no longer motivated to play for a contract and that is a major concern to me. Let someone else draft him as a DL1.

DT Shaun Rogers, CLE (ADP: DL15)

Sigmund Bloom - Rogers finally played up to his massive potential last year, but who knows how long that will last on a Cleveland team that is going nowhere. Rogers already tried to get traded elsewhere this offseason, and former teammate Shaun Smith said Rogers wishes he was back in Detroit. That gives you all the insight into his state of mind that you'll ever need.

DE Dwight Freeney, IND (ADP: DL16)

Bob Magaw - Freeney is a textbook example of a player often more valuable in real football than for IDP purposes (where he is still disruptive enough to command frequent double team attention, thus freeing up his teammates to make more plays, but perhaps not as explosive as he used to be in converting sacks himself). He is notorious for having little interest in run support and putting up anemic tackle numbers which leave a razor thin margin for error if he doesn't produce at a DD sack clip... such as in two of the last three seasons. AFC South divisional rivals TEN, JAX and HOU all appear capable of sporting formidable ground games, which doesn't exactly play to Freeney's strengths. Let somebody else choke on the inherent volatility risk of his high sack, low tackle diet. Not much discernible upside at his current rank, but potentially considerable downside unless he lights up the sack column. Alas, this isn't as much of a given as it was earlier in his career.

Sigmund Bloom - Freeney will have his share of big games, and he might even finish as the league leader in sacks. Still, his lack of presence in the run defense makes his box score presence too sporadic to trust as a starter in IDP leagues.

DE Mathias Kiwanuka, NYG (ADP: DL18)

Aaron Rudnicki - The Giants have the deepest group of defensive linemen in recent memory. Osi Umenyiora is back, the team signed Chris Canty in free agency, and they drafted a similar player in Clint Sintim. He's unlikely to see much playing time on run downs and will have plenty of competition for snaps on passing downs as well. He seems like the player most likely to be hurt by the rotation so a top-20 season is probably unrealistic unless there is an injury or two.

Anthony Borbely - Kiwanuka is likely to play fewer snaps this year with Osi Umenyiora returning. The 35-solos/8.5 sacks he recorded last year will be hard to repeat and that will make it difficult for Kiwanuka to hit his ADP of DL18.

DE Darryl Tapp, SEA (ADP: DL20)

John Norton - Just a couple of weeks ago I would have agreed with Jeff Pasquino that Tapp was under valued at #20. However, upon scouting the Seahawks first game I was surprised if not shocked to see that Tapp was on the field ONLY in the nickel package. Cory Redding and Lawrence Jackson saw all the action with the first team in the base defense. Granted this could all change but if it doesn't Tapp could be a huge disappointment.

Bob Magaw - Two words (not counting those two, and these self-referential eight)... Cory Redding.

DE Derrick Burgess, NE (ADP: DL35)

Aaron Rudnicki - After trading Mike Vrabel to the Chiefs in the offseason, the Patriots had a big need for a pass rusher. So they traded for Burgess who recently had 35.5 sacks from 2005 to 2007, but he's expected to move from his natural position of DE to OLB in the Patriots 3-4 defense. So, there's a good chance that he could see his position eligibility shift to LB which would render him nearly useless. Even if he remains at DL, he's learning a new position and new defense at 31 years old and will probably not contribute as much more than a pass-rush specialist this year.

Linebackers

OLB DeMarcus Ware, DAL (ADP: LB3)

John Norton - Ware had a great 2008 season but how often does any player repeat a 20 sack season? Ware and James Harrison have set the bar for 3-4 outside linebackers in the fantasy game but I just can't put that kind of value on any linebacker who doesn't even reach 70 solo tackles. Ware is worthy of a top 12 ranking but you will never convince me to take him ahead of Willis, Beason, Ruud, D.J Williams and a few other very consistent linebackers.

Aaron Rudnicki - Well, I picked him in this same spot a year ago before Ware went out and recorded one of the best sack totals in NFL history. Can he repeat that type of production? It seems unlikely. The Cowboys dumped Terrell Owens in the offseason so the offense figures to be more conservative and focused on the ground game this year. I think there are much safer options to choose from, but Ware clearly is a special talent with added value in sack-heavy scoring systems.

Anthony Borbely - Ware had a career high 20 sacks last year and added 69 solos. It will be difficult to repeat those numbers again, but 60 solos/15 sacks is not out of the question. Prior to James Harrison's last two years, 3-4 OLBs simply did not put up consistent fantasy numbers. Knowing that, I'll let someone else draft Ware at his ADP of LB3.

ILB D'Qwell Jackson, CLE (ADP: LB6)

Jene Bramel - Jackson hit career highs in nearly every category last year, but the only number that truly stood out among his peers was his ridiculously high assisted tackle total. Jackson's much more likely to come down to earth this year than to repeat his 154 total tackle performance. Counting on him as your LB1 is risky enough, taking him ahead of DeMeco Ryans, D.J. Williams, Jonathan Vilma and a host of other stronger options is insane.

Anthony Borbely - Jackson had a huge year in 2008, racking up 96 solos and an astounding 58 assists. I just can't see him repeating those numbers, especially the 58 assists. An ADP of LB7 is way too rich for my blood. I see a LB2 season out of Jackson.

ILB Kirk Morrison, OAK (ADP: LB11)

Sigmund Bloom - Morrison's ADP is sure to drop with the news of his dislocated elbow, but it won't drop enough. He was already embroiled in a position battle with Ricky Brown at MLB, now Brown will have a chance to seize the job in his absence. Morrison should have been going as a low-end LB2 before, now he's barely worth draft in the top 30 LBs.

Larry Thomas - Morrison may very well finish close to his 11th place ranking, however he is too risky to take as a LB 1. Oakland again toyed with moving Morrison outside and all is not settled there yet. He may start the season in the middle, but due to injuries or performance, he may finish at strong side. Buyer beware.

OLB Shawne Merriman, SD (ADP: LB13)

Bob Magaw - While Merriman undeniably has potential upside from his current mid-teens ADP, he arguably has as much or more downside given the severity and extent of his knee injury. With prized 1st round converted DE/3-4 OLB Larry English in the fold, the Chargers might be inclined to both ease him back into action early, and to lighten his workload as the season wends along later. Early reports on English have been favorable, a trend which, if it continues, could make the above risks more tangible and manifest. Depending on your level of risk aversion, there are probably other LBs carrying similar value that also offer upside (albeit perhaps not as high) without as much downside risk. For instance, MLBs such as E.J. Henderson and Lofa Tatupu occupy approximately the same modestly pricey ADP real estate.

Sigmund Bloom - I'm just as excited to see Merriman back in the lineup as any non-Chargers fan, but I would never trust him as a top-end LB2. We don't know how his knee will hold up, and 3-4 OLBs not named Harrison or Ware are terribly inconsistent when it comes to week-to-week presence in the box score.

Larry Thomas - Until Merriman is back on the field and looking like the Merriman of old, he is a LB 3-4 at best for me. Merriman is currently ranked 13th, and without question has the skill set to finish there, providing he is fully recovered from last years season ending knee surgery.

OLB Chad Greenway, MIN (ADP: LB20)

John Norton - I really like Greenway and believe he will be productive. However, his 2008 numbers were inflated by the injury to E.J. Henderson. Greenway is lining up at SLB in most base defensive sets and sometimes sits in favor of Ben Leber in the nickel packages. #20 puts him in the LB2 range, I don't see him being better than a decent LB3 who might struggle a little with inconsistency now that Henderson will be back in action and sucking up tackles.

Jene Bramel - I like Greenway, but drafting him at LB20 is drafting him at the height of his likely upside. E.J. Henderson is back at MLB and there's no guarantee that Greenway, already aligned to the tougher strong side position, will play a full time role. There's no reason to reach for him as your LB2 when there are so many equal or better options on the board.

OLB Aaron Kampman, GB (ADP: LB25)

Bob Magaw - Considering where he is going, there are safer, more conventional LB options. Extra-Steeler projections of former 4-3 DEs to 3-4 OLBs is more dark art than rigorous science, and a practice fraught with peril. Any transition which is less than automatic, effortless and immediate (and it could be asking a lot to teach a nearly 30 year old dog new tricks) could negatively impact his bottom line year-end totals.

Jeff Pasquino - When is a linebacker not really a linebacker? When he is a former DE now standing up in a 3-4. Kampman was a Pro Bowl at DE but now he has to get used to playing off of the line and will have some coverage responsibilities. While he has not changed teams, changing schemes can be just as disorienting. Do not expect him to be a Top 25 LB this season as he learns to adjust to the new position.

OLB Lamarr Woodley, PIT (ADP: LB28)

Aaron Rudnicki - Woodley had a great season in 2008 with 11.5 sacks but he still failed to crack the top-30 in FBG scoring. He's a boom or bust type who will put up strong numbers in weeks when he has a sack but his tackle numbers are too low to rely on him as an every-week starter. He averaged just 2 solo tackles and 4 fantasy points per game in the 7 weeks when he failed to register a sack last year.

ILB Nick Barnett, GB (ADP: LB42)

Jeff Pasquino - Barnett is still on the mend from his ACL surgery and is adapting to playing a 3-4 instead of the middle linebacker in a 4-3 scheme. Green Bay's defense should be very good, but the tackle numbers have to be expected to drop for him as he splits the middle with A.J. Hawk. Taking Barnett as an LB3 has double-risk of downside performance and also the possibility of him not being at 100% come Week 1.

Defensive Backs

S Eric Weddle, SD (ADP: DB1)

Jene Bramel - Like LB D'Qwell Jackson, Weddle will be drafted on his 2008 numbers without regard for the bigger picture. The Charger defense had a team tackle opportunity figure dominated by pass completions against. Weddle is a nice player and may still finish among the top twelve DBs this year, but there's no way he tops 100 solos again and has very little chance of living up to such a gaudy ADP.

Sigmund Bloom - Weddle and the Chargers D faced an inordinate amount of passes downfield last year, but that should hopefully change with the return of Shawne Merriman. Weddle is also the best suited safety in San Diego to stay stranded in deep coverage. His chances of repeating last year's high tackle total are low.

S Gibril Wilson, MIA (ADP: DB3)

John Norton - When Wilson went to Oakland last year I was at the front of the line trying to tell everyone that the situation he was entering was even better than the one he left with the Giants. I can't say that with this move. Yeremiah Bell will continue to work at SS and while I still believe Wilson will be productive and probably a decent DB1, there is a lot more risk with this move and his numbers are very likely to take a significant hit. At the very least he and Bell (ADP: DB7) should trade places.

Jeff Pasquino - Dorothy, this isn't Kansas anymore, and it isn't Oakland either. Wilson put up huge numbers while playing down in the box for the Black and Silver, but he won't be doing similar work in Miami. Taking him as a Top 5 DB in your draft is very little upside and huge downside risk.

S Troy Polamalu, PIT (ADP: DB4)

Aaron Rudnicki - While he is certainly a great player and one of the best safeties in the NFL, that hasn't always translated into fantasy success. Polamalu has seen his average solo tackles/game steadily drop every year from 4.6 in 2005 all the way down to 3.4 in 2008. He made up for that with an impressive 7 interceptions last year, but he had just 5 total in the 3 seasons prior. Polamalu also has a troubling history of concussions and has missed significant time in 2 of the past 3 seasons.

S Ed Reed, BAL (ADP: DB8)

Anthony Borbely - Even with Reed's insane interception numbers, he has not been a big fantasy scorer for several years, mainly because his tackle numbers are very low. At his ADP of DB7, I think he is the most overvalued IDP this year.

Larry Thomas - Love Ed Reed, but not as a DB1, he's just too inconsistent. Arguably the best big play IDP in the game, a great choice for survivor/ best ball leagues. The Raven defense will still be very good even without Rex Ryan, so opportunities will be limited. He's a threat to take a pick or fumble recovery to the house every time. I'm more comfortable with him as a DB3 than DB1.

Sigmund Bloom - Reed has great name-brand value, but he's not even worth drafting as a starting DB, forget about making him a DB1! He does have the potential to pick a pass and take it to the house in any given week, but his neck ailment has kept him in the red non-contact jersey for a good part of training camp, and he admitted he has considered retirement. One bad hit and Reed's career could be over.

CB Chris Gamble, CAR (ADP: DB9)

Aaron Rudnicki - Gamble is a very talented and athletic corner who is clearly capable of living up to this draft position if everything goes well. But, last year looks more like an aberration than a norm for him. He finished with 83 solo tackles which was nearly double his total from the year before. Also, with the smaller and less proven Richard Marshall taking over the starting spot opposite him this year, Gamble might see less action on his side of the field.

Anthony Borbely - Gamble's huge fantasy season last year was largely due to his 83 solos. Considering his previous best was 66, expecting a repeat of last year's numbers is asking too much. I think a top ten ADP is much too high for Gamble.

S Brandon Meriweather, NE (ADP: DB11)

Jene Bramel - Meriweather might surprise if he plays a traditional strong safety role, but a DB11 price tag is too high to pay for that potential. He's best suited as a DB3 with upside late in your draft.

S Bob Sanders, IND (ADP: DB12)

John Norton - We all know how good Sanders is and what he's capable of doing, but how can we trust him enough to make him a top 12 DB pick when the guy has missed 36 games in the last 5 seasons and has just one top 20 finish in his career? There is just way too much risk to gamble on Sanders this high.

Bob Magaw - It is only with the greatest reluctance that Sanders is listed in this unfortunate category. It would be remiss to not mention, at least in passing, that he is easily one of the top individual defensive talents in the NFL (during their Super Bowl run the Colts went from being one of the worst run defenses in the league in his absence to one of the best IMMEDIATELY upon his insertion). That's the good. The bad? In five seasons, Sanders has played 14 or more games in the regular season twice, and six or fewer games three times. Burn me once, shame on you, Bob... burn me thrice, put my head in a vice, like the inimitable Joe Pesci in Casino (or something like that). Now the latest reports from camp indicate a knee slow to heal in the wake of offseason surgery. Maybe the chickens are coming home to roost, as many scouts predicted that his stature was too small for his game. The reckless intensity and ruthless, wanton, positively medieval disregard for the safety of others and himself sometimes causes him to write checks his body can't cash. The intended take away point here... the guy misses nearly as many games as a personally imploding Sly Stone missed gigs circa Riot/Fresh. Can't give any rec other than a steer clear here.

Larry Thomas - Plays spectator role far too often to be considered a DB 1. Not clear when Sanders will be good to go. Hearing Caldwell say things like..."he will be in due time. How much time that will be, I'm not certain," and "when he's back, he's back" and Team president Bill Polian say..."The regular season is 16 games. He's coming back during the regular season, probably for the vast majority of them. This doesn't sound real encouraging. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see him start the season on PUP. Starting to hear him comparisons to Dan Morgan. None-the less when healthy, he's a good as it gets.

S Patrick Chung, NE (ADP: DB29)

Bob Magaw - The New England deep patrol currently presents a crowded and very fuzzy picture in attempting to parse the division of labor (at least IDP fans can count on HC Belichick's frequent glibly illuminating disclosures for some clarity on the state of the secondary and his future intentions - OOF!). Chung is a much better dynasty than redraft prospect. His tools, skill set, physicality and toughness (which are somewhat reminiscent of Rodney Harrison) make him a definite candidate to eventually inherit some form of Harrison-like role. But drafting him too early this year could lead to disappointment, as his exact role in 2009 is still very much shrouded in uncertainty, and his playing time very well may not be as extensive as some are optimistically forecasting