2009 IDP Deep Sleepers

Posted 8/24 by the FBG IDP Staff - Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Defensive Linemen

DE Robert Ayers, DEN (ADP: DL39)

Sigmund Bloom - Ayers is going to spend a lot of time standing up as a 3-4 OLB in Denver's new defense. In leagues that lag behind and keep him designated as a defensive lineman, he'll be a sneaky DL2 with DL1 upside.

DE Leonard Little, STL (ADP: DL45)

John Norton - Little is pretty long in the tooth and it was anticipated that his role would be reduced this season because of it. From what we have seen so far in the preseason that is not going to be the case. He worked in an every down role in the preseason opener, recording a sack and forcing a fumble while looking great in general. After a couple of injury-plagued seasons, Little is finally healthy and if he can stay that way could return to the top 20.

Bob Magaw - Little is a few injury-riddled seasons away from about a half decade span where he terrorized QBs at a level reached by just a handful of DEs at that time (names like Michael Strahan and Simeon Rice). If he can stay healthy (admittedly a BIG if... but that is how a former Pro Bowler lands in the Deep Sleeper section), he could have surprising upside. New HC Spagnuolo did have the benefit of a stellar cast on the DL with the Giants, but he should also receive some credit for his innovative schemes and pressure packages (a trendsetter with his unorthodox four-DE DL deployment in some passing situations). If Spags can work his magic with Little, 2008 2nd overall pick Chris Long and former Lion James Hall, the Rams lone remaining connection to the Super Bowl years could have his career rejuvenated.

Anthony Borbely - Little will be 35 years old in a couple of months, but by all accounts, he has been great in training camp and regularly abusing the St. Louis offensive linemen. At his current ADP of DL45 (168th overall), a player with Little's credentials is well worth the pick. There simply aren't many DL drafted that late who have the potential that Little has.

DE Greg Ellis, OAK (ADP: DL46)

John Norton - Talk about a steal! I have to think this ADP reflects some early drafts that happened before Ellis became a Raider. How else can a guy with 20 sacks in the last two seasons fall all the way to #46? The last time he played DE in a 4-3, Ellis went 44-15-9. The Raiders have given him an every down role and you can trust me when I say that he hasn't forgotten how to play the position.

Aaron Rudnicki - Although Ellis was not always a full-time player in Dallas, he still managed to register 20 sacks combined over the past two seasons. In Oakland, he has an opportunity to become an every-down DE and he clearly remains a very effective pass rusher. The trade of Derrick Burgess to New England frees up additional snaps for him and he should have little difficulty leading the team in sacks. 35 solo tackles and 7 or 8 sacks are within reach and would make him a very solid DE2 in most leagues.

DE Jason Jones, TEN (ADP: DL47)

Aaron Rudnicki - Jones is a DE/DT tweener who looks like he'll get an opportunity to try and replace Albert Haynesworth in the Titans starting lineup. At 280 pounds, Jones is not exactly the run-stuffing type of DT so he should get plenty of opportunities to penetrate and cause havoc behind the line of scrimmage. He flashed his potential in a week 16 game against the eventual Super Bowl champion Steelers last year when he registered 3 sacks and 3 forced fumbles. With regular playing time, he may wind up with as many as 40 solo tackles and 8 sacks, which would be great production for a player drafted this late who may also wind up with DT eligibility in some leagues.

DT Kelly Gregg, BAL (ADP: DL54)

Aaron Rudnicki - From 2002 to 2007, Gregg played in all but 3 games and averaged 48 solo tackles, 19 assists, and 2.5 sacks. That pretty much makes him one of the most productive DTs in the league, which is even more impressive when you consider that he came from NFL Europe and normally lines up as a NT for the Ravens. Unfortunately, Gregg wound up missing the entire 2008 season with a knee injury that required microfracture surgery. That's certainly a concern for a 32-year old player, but he's expected to be ready for the season opener and could provide excellent value at this point in the draft.

Sigmund Bloom - Gregg shouldn't be a sleeper, he was an elite DT in leagues that require the position in 2006 and 2007 before suffering a knee injury that cost him all of 2008. He's even worth rostering in leagues that only require starting DL that play anywhere on the line, because his consistent presence in the box score making tackles in run defense makes him a safe bye week/injury replacement.

DE Anthony Hargrove, NO (ADP: Unranked)

John Norton - If Hargrove can continue down the path he seems to be on, he will be a candidate for comeback player of the year. He has been the talk of the New Orleans offseason and will have an opportunity to carry that into the regular season when Will Smith and Charles Grant are expected to miss the first four games. Hargrove has the ability to be an excellent pass rusher from the DE position and the versatility to move inside when asked to do so. If he continues to impress he may end up starting at end for the first month then lining up beside Sedrick Ellis at tackle the rest of the year. Does anyone remember when La'Roi Glover recorded 18 sacks and was the #1 fantasy DL while lining up at DT in NO?

DE Jimmy Wilkerson, TB (ADP: Unranked)

Jene Bramel - After languishing in a deep rotational role in Kansas City for years, Wilkerson broke through with an impressive five sacks in limited duty in Tampa Bay last year and earned a starting job this year. He's not likely to play himself into DL2 numbers, but he has a chance to be a very solid spot-starting DL3 with 40 solos and 5-6 sacks this year.

DE William Hayes, TEN (ADP: Unranked)

Larry Thomas - A small school player (Winston-Salem State) who the Titans traded up in the fourth round in 2008 to get. Titans defensive line coach Jim Washburn is very good at developing young talent. Better dynasty prospect than redraft.

Linebackers

ILB Larry Foote, DET (ADP: LB55)

John Norton - Foote is not a flashy player but is a proven NFL starter with a club that is trying to rebound/rebuild from the worst season in NFL history. The first preseason game revealed that Foote will remain on the field in nickel packages which is huge. We should also consider that Paris Lenon posted back to back 80+ tackles seasons and a pair of top 20 finishes here over the last two years. Foote is a big improvement over Lenon and a strong candidate to lead the Lions in tackles.

OLB Akeem Jordan, PHI (ADP: LB61)

Jeff Pasquino - While the IDP world wonders who will step in for the injured Stewart Bradley, the real IDP value winner was Akeem Jordan. Jordan now is likely to be on the field for all three downs on the weak side, the position he took over in the second half of 2008 for Philadelphia, where he racked up 38 solo tackles in Weeks 12-17. That effort plus his bigger role now projects Jordan to gather up 75-80 solo tackles, which is immense value after 50-60 LBs are already selected.

Aaron Rudnicki - After making the team as an undrafted free agent in 2007, Jordan didn't take long to earn a starting job when he replaced Omar Gaither midway through the 2008 season. Over a 6 week stretch to end the season when he faced strong running teams like the Ravens, Giants, Redskins, and Cowboys, he averaged 6.3 solo tackles per game. While that is probably not sustainable over a full season, he figures to get a bump in playing time and production this year due to the uncertainty at MLB after Stewart Bradley suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason. He looks like the Eagles linebacker with the best chance to finish as an every-week starter right now.

Sigmund Bloom - Jordan will be the Eagles only three-down LB, and he averaged over six solos a game in the last six games of 2008, after he took over for Omar Gaither as the staring weak-side linebacker. Jordan is at worst a high-end LB4, and you can get him for the price of an LB5/6.

Bob Magaw - WLB Jordan beat out Omar Gaither decisively in 2009 and didn't look back. Prorating his last month, he would have finished as a near top 20 LB in some scoring systems. The NFC Beast is a smash mouth-friendly division (with RBs like Brandon Jacobs, Marion Barber and a bulked up, 220+ lb., LB-like Clinton Portis), so there should be no shortage of tackle opportunities. The torn ACL that ended good looking, up and coming MLB Stewart Bradley's season prematurely could lead to a further spike in opportunities (if replacement Joe Mays has lesser range). The defense as a whole could be on the field more, as they will likely also miss the fire and intensity of former defensive heartbeat Brian Dawkins.

OLB Rocky McIntosh, WAS (ADP: LB68)

Anthony Borbely - McIntosh was on pace for 80 solos 2 years ago, with 3 sacks and 3 FFs. He was not recovered from his torn ACL last year. It was similar to Chad Greenway's situation two years ago. It takes time for a LB especially to get his range and speed back. I have him as a high LB4 with upside and he is dirt-cheap right now. His current ADP is LB68 (171st overall) and there is no risk, high reward since he is drafted so late. I would not be surprised if he rose to the LB2 area. There are simply not 170 better IDPs than McIntosh.

Sigmund Bloom - McIntosh is a rangy playmaker who can make a difference a pass rusher. He wasn't completely himself last year, only a year removed from ACL surgery, but he should be full speed in the new look Redskins offense. The addition of Albert Haynesworth should only enhance McIntosh's chances for big games.

OLB Mike Peterson, JAX (ADP: Unranked)

John Norton - Peterson may not be the same player he was a few years ago but he seems to have found new life in Atlanta. He's taken on a leadership role with the young defense and is working as an every down linebacker. Peterson looked strong in the Falcons first preseason game and is a very solid late round sleeper who should put up 80+ solo stops with a handful of big plays to go with them.

Bob Magaw - Peterson was fairly recently one of the top WLB/MLBs in the game, first with the Colts, later with the Jaguars... before a few ill-timed injuries and landing in HC Jack Del Rio's doghouse conspired to cause his stock to seriously tumble. By joining Atlanta he is not only reunited with his former DC Mike Smith from Jacksonville, but also returns to the WLB position he excelled at in Indianapolis (and in college at Florida). The stars could be aligned for a rebound season. Peterson is a good athlete who could rack up a few extra points on big plays, with the ability to generate sacks, INTs and FFs.

ILB Kevin Burnett, SDC (ADP: Unranked)

Jene Bramel - Burnett began taking snaps with the first team defense at WILB last week. Already a starter in the Charger nickel, Burnett looks ready to assume a full time role at a favorable tackle spot. He'll have to prove he's durable enough, but most non-FBGs won't have him anywhere on their radar. Grab him as your LB5 and hope he hits his LB3+ upside.

ILB Jonathan Goff, NYG (ADP: Unranked)

Larry Thomas - The Giants feel Goff is the heir apparent to Antonio Pierce. Pierce is signed through 2010, but carries a high cap figure next year and could become cap causality should the Giants feel Goff is ready. He's smart, athletic, with a nose for the ball with the opportunity to play behind the best defensive line in football.

ILB Corey Mays, KC (ADP: Unranked)

Larry Thomas - A run and hit LB who has impressed head coach Todd Haley and the Chief coaching staff. In pre season game Vs Houston he was all over the field making plays. If he continues at this pace, he could hold off Zach Thomas, at the very least, he could take over at some point during the season.

Defensive Backs

S Tyrell Johnson, MIN (ADP: DB54)

Bob Magaw - Tyrell "Corporation" Johnson has the physical tools, athleticism and strong safety skill set of a Nexus-6 series replicant. Like fellow high profile DB from the class of 2008 Brandon Flowers, the NFL channel's resident in-house scout Mike Mayock graded him out very highly, calling him probably the best tackling safety in his class. With Darren Sharper moving on to New Orleans, the second year athletic prodigy is poised on the threshold of a breakout season. He has enviable surrounding talent in the Minnesota secondary... wealthy bookend CBs Antoine Winfield and Cedric Griffin, as well as FS Madieu Williams comprise an outstanding supporting cast with the coverage skills to free up Johnson to make a lot of plays in run support. The Vikings have an extremely stout run defense, which could invite more passes from a talented trio of NFC North rival signal callers (Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler and Matthew Stafford) and keep the second year phenom even busier. A potentially explosive offense may have become weaponized with the additions of Brett Favre and Percy Harvin, which could also lead to a lot of tackles in the passing game. BIG (top 10-20 DB) UPSIDE!

S Bryan Scott, BUF (ADP: DB58)

John Norton - The Bills have moved Donte Whitner to FS with Scott expected to get the nod at SS if he can get back on the field soon (he has missed some time with a minor injury). Scott has been productive in the past when given an opportunity, including last season when he posted 25 solo stops over the final four weeks of the season.

Sigmund Bloom - Scott should get to line up in the box a lot if the preseason games are any indication. He has already shown his potential IDP worth in the past with Atlanta, and opponents will want to establish the run to keep their defenses from getting worn out against the Bills no huddle offense.

S Tyvon Branch, OAK (ADP: DB59)

Jene Bramel - Every year, camp brings us a few names that could emerge as solid IDP options but don't see huge jumps in ADP because of their late summer bloom. Branch is now locked into a very strong SS job in Oakland and could approach 80 solos. Similar options here include Tyrell Johnson (DB54) and Bryan Scott (DB59).

Aaron Rudnicki - Many were surprised when the Raiders released Gibril Wilson in the offseason after a 96-solo tackle season, and they were all surprised again when they drafted Michael Mitchell in the 2nd round. It was initially assumed that Mitchell would take over at SS and put up big fantasy numbers right away, but Branch is throwing a wrench into the works. A former cornerback in college, Branch has excellent speed, good instincts, and is a reliable tackler. With Mitchell injured in the preseason and Branch playing well, it looks like Branch will enter the season with a strong grip on the SS job. If the Raiders continue to struggle stopping the run, a breakout season for Branch seems very likely.

Sigmund Bloom - Second-round pick Michael Mitchell's hamstring doesn't seem to be getting any better, and Branch has probably had a good enough camp to hold him off anyway. The Raiders will face a ton of runs against their leaky front seven, and Branch will be there to clean up the mess.

Larry Thomas - Starting at SS as second round draft choice Michael Mitchell continues to miss time. Branch is very similar to Mitchell, but has better coverage skills. Could move to FS if Mitchell can bounce him out of the starting SS role. Better than his 59 ranking, DB-3-4 with upside.

S Michael Johnson, NYG (ADP: DB60)

Aaron Rudnicki - Johnson is expected to take over a full-time role in the Giants defense this year after James Butler signed with the Rams. Although Kenny Phillips is the more talented player, he's also much better in coverage so he could wind up seeing more time playing deep. That would allow Johnson, a big, physical safety, to move up closer to the line of scrimmage and contribute in run support. The Giants also have such an amazing collection of pass rushing talent, that there should be plenty of playmaking opportunities.

S Roy Williams, CIN (ADP: DB65)

John Norton - Most people have written Williams off as a fantasy option. That may come back to bite them. Williams is reunited with defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer who was his coordinator in Dallas for most of Williams' five Pro Bowl seasons. Zimmer is one of the few who never lost confidence in Williams and was instrumental in bringing him to Cincinnati. In the first two preseason games Williams not only started at SS but remained on the field and was effective in the nickel packages. The safety positions in Cincinnati have been very productive in recent years so Williams could prove a huge surprise.

S Jim Leonhard, NYJ (ADP: Unranked)

Larry Thomas - Leonard knows the system having played for Ryan in Baltimore. He's a solid, starting, over achieving strong safety with surprisingly big play ability. His familiarity in the scheme will give him an edge.

S Quintin Demps, PHI (ADP: Unranked)

Jeff Pasquino - Quintin Demps is well off the IDP radar because (A) the Eagles added Sean Jones and (B) the other Quintin (Mikell) is getting most of the attention. Do not sleep on Demps, for he is much more likely to start than Sean Jones for Philadelphia. The Eagles use both of their safeties interchangeably, so "strong" and "free" safety starters mean very little. Demps can also cover in nickel or dime coverage even against top wideouts (I distinctly remember him covering Anquan Boldin on several plays) and is a nice bet for 40 tackles and a handful of interceptions.

S Matt Giordano, IND (ADP: Unranked)

Larry Thomas - His 11 solos Vs Minnesota in Indy's pre season opener was an attention getter for sure. Blue collar type with limited coverage skills. Guy to keep an eye on in redraft leagues should opportunity knock due to injuries.