Predicting the Top 20 Running Backs for 2009

  Posted 8/12 by Jeff Haseley - Exclusive to Footballguys.com

The answer is quite simple. It's all in the carries. Over the last five years, 75% of all RBs who reached 200 carries, finished in the Top 20 for that year. So now the question really is, predicting who will reach 200 carries. Last year, 24 RBs had 200 carries or more. Five of those 24 did not finish in the Top 20 in 2008 (Ryan Grant, Jamal Lewis, Cedric Benson, Justin Fargas and Willie Parker). Only one RB finished in the Top 20 in 2008 that did not have at least 200 carries - Maurice Jones-Drew with 197 carries.

Calculations suggest as carries increase, the greater percentage of predicting the RB Top 20 also increases.

Over the last five years (non-PPR)

• 200+ carries has resulted in a 75% chance of making the Top 20
• 220+ carries = 78%
• 240+ carries = 81%
• 260+ carries = 89%
• 280+ carries = 95%

Is there a big difference between who's in the Top 20 for PPR vs. Non-PPR?
Last year, 18 of 20 RBs who were in the Top 20 in Non-PPR leagues were also in the Top 20 in PPR leagues. The only difference was Pierre Thomas and Derrick Ward made the list for PPR, but not Non-PPR and Le'Ron McClain and LenDale White made the list for Non-PPR, but not PPR. Everyone else was in both Top 20 lists, including the entire Top 10.

Looking Back at 2008

• 24 RBs had at least 200 carries
• Non-PPR - 19 of 24 RBs with at least 200 carries finished in the Top 20 - 79%
• PPR - 17 of 24 RBs with at least 200 carries finished in the Top 20 - 71%

Results From 2008 Predictions

My 2008 projected Top 20 RBs (finishing rank in parenthesis)

1. LaDainian Tomlinson (7)
2. Clinton Portis (8)
3. Larry Johnson (29)
4. Marshawn Lynch (15)
5. Jamal Lewis (25)
6. Adrian Peterson (3)
7. Joseph Addai (39)
8. Steven Jackson (13)
9. Edgerrin James (52)
10. Michael Turner (2)
11. Frank Gore (14)
12. Willis McGahee (32)
13. LenDale White (19)
14. Brian Westbrook (10)
15. Ryan Grant (22)
16. Marion Barber III (16)
17. Earnest Graham (44)
18. Darren McFadden (45)
19. Maurice Jones-Drew (9)
20. Kevin Smith (18)

Correct: 12
Incorrect: 8

The eight RBs who finished in the Top 20 that were not on my list

1. DeAngelo Williams
4. Matt Forte
5. Thomas Jones
6. Steve Slaton
11. Chris Johnson
12. Brandon Jacobs
17. Ronnie Brown
20. Le'Ron McClain

Footballguys' 2009 RB Projections

From our early August projections:

• 28 RBs projected to have at least 200 carries
• 22 projected to have at least 220 carries
• 16 projected to have at least 240 carries
• 9 projected to have at least 260 carries
• 6 projected to have at least 280 carries

Note some players are included in the projected 200 carry list, but are not in the projected Top 20 FP list.

• Cedric Benson
• Knowshon Moreno
• Jamal Lewis
• Willie Parker
• Larry Johnson
• Marshawn Lynch
• Ray Rice
• Derrick Ward

Some players or situations that bear mentioning as possible surprises

• Fred Taylor, NE - If he receives the majority of New England's carry carousel, he could make the list
• LenDale White, TEN - There's been a lot of talk of White losing weight and being more fit. It might keep Chris Johnson at bay. They both could finish in the Top 20, just like last season.
• Felix Jones, DAL - His problem might be the amount of carries, but Pierre Thomas nearly made the list last year with only 129 carries. It is possible.
• Joseph Addai or Donald Brown, IND - Depending on how the Colts will use both backs, they both have a shot at the Top 20
• Ray Rice or Willis McGahee, BAL - Will Rice have enough to sustain a Top 20 finish or will McGahee or Le'Ron McClain have just enough of a role to keep all three out?
• Earnest Graham, TB - He has scored 10 TDs in a season before and he has a tenure with the team that Derrick Ward doesn't have.
• Marshawn Lynch or Fred Jackson, BUF - Jackson will have the first three games to showcase himself. If he is ultra impressive, he could squeeze Lynch for serious playing time.
• LeSean McCoy, PHI - If Westbrook struggles to stay healthy and McCoy is as good as advertised, he could make this list at seasons end
• Leon Washington or Shonn Greene, NYJ - Will Father Time finally catch up to the Thomas Jones? The Jets drafted Greene for a reason, plus Washington is no slouch for a change of pace back.
• Jonathan Stewart, CAR - His Achilles problems suggest DeAngelo Williams will still be the team's primary back, but don't forget, Stewart had 10 TDs last year.
• Jamal Lewis or James Davis, CLE - Davis could easily take away carries from Lewis this year. If Davis gets his chance and he plays exceptional, he's got an outside chance. Don't forget Jerome Harrison either.
• Larry Johnson or Jamaal Charles, KC - Will the Chiefs bring along Charles enough so that Johnson has to battle for carries?
• Willie Parker or Rashard Mendenhall, PIT - How will the Steelers utilize Mendenhall this year? Will he be productive? How will that affect Parker's carries?

Formulating a Prediction

The best way to make a prediction is to involve multiple people and groups. We have the Footballguys projections, but what about a mass group of other people's opinions? For this, I asked the Footballguys Message Boards to assist me with who they thought would be in the 2009 RB Top 20 list and this is what they came up with. Forty-four people submitted an entry. I calculated how many times a particular player was included for each of the entries. Here's the breakdown.

• 44 of 44 votes
  • Frank Gore, SF
  • Matt Forte, CHI
  • Steven Jackson, STL
  • Adrian Peterson, MIN
  • Clinton Portis, WAS
  • LaDainian Tomlinson, SD
• 43 of 44 votes
  • Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC
  • Michael Turner, ATL
• 42 of 44 votes
  • Brandon Jacobs, NYG
  • Chris Johnson, TEN
• 40 of 44 votes
  • DeAngelo Williams, CAR
• 39 of 44 votes
  • Ronnie Brown, MIA
  • Steve Slaton, HOU
• 31 of 44 votes
  • Ryan Grant, GB
• 30 of 44 votes
  • Brian Westbrook, PHI
  • Pierre Thomas, NO
• 28 of 44 votes
  • Knowshon Moreno, DEN
• 27 of 44 votes
  • Kevin Smith, DET
• 24 of 44 votes
  • Marion Barber, DAL
• 20 of 44 votes
  • Chris Wells, ARI

Top 20 Cutoff

• 19 of 44 votes
  • Darren McFadden, OAK
• 18 of 44 votes
  • Larry Johnson, KC
• 16 of 44 votes
  • Derrick Ward, TB
• 13 of 44 votes
  • Jonathan Stewart, CAR
• 9 of 44 votes
  • Joseph Addai, IND
  • Felix Jones, DAL
  • Ray Rice, BAL
• 8 of 44 votes
  • Reggie Bush, NO
  • Willie Parker, PIT
• 7 of 44 votes
  • Marshawn Lynch, BUF
• 5 of 44 votes
  • Donald Brown, IND
• 4 of 44 votes
  • Thomas Jones, NYJ
  • Rashard Mendenhall, PIT
• 3 of 44 votes
  • Cedric Benson, CIN
  • Julius Jones, SEA
  • LenDale White, TEN
• 2 of 44 votes
  • Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG
  • Michael Bush, OAK
  • Earnest Graham, TB
  • Jamal Lewis, CLE
  • Willis McGahee, BAL
  • Leon Washington, NYJ
• 1 of 44 votes
  • Jamaal Charles, KC
  • Shonn Greene, NYJ
  • Jerome Harrison, CLE
  • LeSean McCoy, PHI
  • Bernard Scott, CIN
  • Fred Taylor, NE

Observations of the three lists

• Overall 18 of the 20 players are in all three groups
• Footballguys was the only group to include Darren McFadden and Thomas Jones
• Footballguys was the only group to not include Knowshon Moreno
• My ranking was the only group to include Cedric Benson
• The Message Board was the only group to include Chris Wells

Each year the cutoff point for reaching the RB Top 20 changes. The last five years the cutoff points have been up and down almost randomly, which makes it hard to predict what the cutoff will be for 2009.

Non PPR

• 2008: 169
• 2007: 155
• 2006: 174
• 2005: 160
• 2004: 175
• Five yr Avg: 166.6

PPR

• 2008: 194
• 2007: 183
• 2006: 198
• 2005: 182
• 2004: 208
• Five yr Avg: 193.0

Conclusion

The more carries, the greater the chance of reaching the Top 20, especially in Non-PPR leagues. Not even factoring in TDs, the carries appear to tell the story. With an increase in carries comes more red zone chances and with more red zone chances, comes more TDs. In most cases, 280 or more carries means you're in - 95% of the time. Ryan Grant (312 carries in 2008) was an exception last year and part of the 5%, as he finished 22nd. 280 carries is only 17.5 carries per game. Last year 10 RBs averaged 17.5 carries on a per game basis (below), while 14 averaged that number the year prior.

2008 RBs with 17.5 carries per game

• 23.5 Michael Turner
• 22.7 Adrian Peterson
• 21.4 Clinton Portis
• 21.1 Steven Jackson
• 19.8 Matt Forte
• 19.5 Ryan Grant
• 19.1 Willie Parker
• 18.2 LaDainian Tomlinson
• 18.1 Thomas Jones
• 17.8 Cedric Benson

It is very possible and almost expected that someone unbeknown to us at this time could crack this list, especially if there is an injury to a marquis player. Someone like LeSean McCoy could replace Brian Westbrook. Or Leon Washington could replace Thomas Jones. Felix Jones has an outside chance to make the list regardless of how successful his teammates are. If Frank Gore gets hurt, I don't necessarily think rookie Glen Coffee would automatically replace him on this list. This would then open the door for someone else - perhaps Darren McFadden, Reggie Bush, Fred Taylor or Willie Parker. Don't rule out a rookie on a good offensive team, if something happens to the starter. For example Chargers rookie RB Gartrell Johnson or Bears RB Kevin Jones are both very possible "out of nowhere" candidates that could emerge due to unforeseen circumstances.

To submit your 2009 Top 20 Fantasy RBs, click here Who will be the Top 20 RBs in 2009? Your comments are welcome. E-mail me at haseley@footballguys.com or http://twitter.com/JeffHaseley.