Faceoff - S Adrian Wilson, Arizona Cardinals

Posted 7/15, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Sigmund Bloom

If you're going to be the one to break the seal on defensive backs this year, the player to choose is the same one that was the shoo-in during the middle of this decade - Adrian Wilson. The only difference is that this year you might not have to take him No. 1 among DBs to have him anchor your secondary.

Wilson was a perennial Top 5 fantasy defensive back entering 2007, but a torn Achilles cut his season short, and he started 2008 slow as he was getting back up to speed. He only had 13 total tackles in the first three games of 2008, and then missed one game and didn't crack the box in a second after he suffered a hamstring injury. After that, Wilson was a solid bet for 8-12 fantasy points a game with an occasional big game, except for the two complete duds the team suffered against Philadelphia and New England.

Wilson's presence in the tackle column was consistent, although it lacked peaks, but his fantasy numbers didn't approach the heights of years past because he wasn't making a big impact as a blitzer - until the NFC championship game. The fact that Wilson was able to get to Donovan McNabb twice (once separating him from the ball) shows that Wilson regained all of his explosiveness by the end of the year. Wilson also racked up 5.5 solos a game during the playoffs, putting him on pace for 88 over a full season, which would be the second highest total of his career, behind only the 2005 campaign, when he finished as the No. 1 overall fantasy defensive back.

This year, he'll be playing with the reassurance of a new five-year, 37-million dollar contract (which shows the Cardinals brass have no doubts about his place among the elite safeties), his converted CB partner in the deep middle, Antrel Rolle, now has a year at free safety under his belt, and the Cardinals defense should complete their transition to the 3-4 - all of which should allow Wilson more opportunities to attack the line of scrimmage with confidence and give you the confidence to make him one of the first defensive backs off the board in your IDP draft once again in 2009.

Downside - by Anthony Borbely

Adrian Wilson is arguably the best safety in football. He is big, fast, and physical and equally great in both run defense and coverage. He is explosive and perhaps the best blitzing defensive back in the game. But his tackle numbers have declined sharply over the last two seasons and so have his sack numbers. It is not easy to write a downside about a player who I currently have ranked as a mid DB1, but there are some reasons to be concerned about Wilson.

Wilson had three monster seasons in a row from 2004 through 2006, averaging 82 solos and 15 assists and racking up totals of 14 sacks, eight forced fumbles, six fumble recoveries, eight picks and 30 passes defended over that span. Those are some huge numbers. However, his numbers have dropped significantly over the last two seasons, particularly his tackle and sack numbers. He has averaged almost 1.3 fewer tackles per game over the last two seasons compared to the three previous years. That is a steep decline.

When I see Wilson play and ignore the numbers, I see a stud safety playing at a high level. But the decline in his numbers is in black and white and they happened for a reason. There is some difference in scheme and Wilson plays a bit more in coverage than before and he blitzes less. That will explain some drop-off in his numbers, but a key factor that has nothing to do with Wilson himself is the improvement of the Arizona Cardinals as a team. They are a much more competitive team and often lead in games much more than they did in the past. With the opponents having to pass more, Wilson has played deeper in coverage than he once did. With him not being as close to the line, he does not have the same number of opportunities to blitz. Playing farther off the line hurts his tackle numbers in the running game.

When I try to project Wilson going forward, there are several factors to consider. DBs are by far the toughest position to rank, and when in doubt, talent usually rises more in my DB rankings. Arizona added former Steeler Bryant McFadden and with him and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie at CB, Wilson should be able to sneak closer to the line and that alone should help his tackle and sack numbers. As of this writing, Wilson is the consensus number one DB. I think he will be in the mid to low DB1 range, but right now, there are too many red flags for me to rank him any higher.