Faceoff - WR Roy Williams, Dallas Cowboys

Posted 8/26, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Colin Dowling

Roy Williams' career to date has been a bit of a mixed bag. Tossing aside 2008 in which his transition from Detroit to Dallas was a bit of a disappointment, Williams has shown the ability to be a top-tier receiver yet also the inconsistency to make fantasy owners crazy. Williams' best fantasy finish was as WR10 in 2006. Other than that, he's never finished higher than WR29.

So why should 2009 be any different? Williams is being drafted as WR16, which is admittedly high for a guy with such a checkered history of production.

However, the math is simple: if the Dallas Cowboys are going to contend for the NFC East Championship then they'll need someone other than Jason Witten to catch the ball. Furthermore, if Tony Romo is going to finish the top ten of quarterbacks (his ADP is currently QB7) then he's going to need a deep threat at receiver to make it happen.

Enter Roy Williams. It has been well-discussed that the Cowboys spent a king's ransom to bring Williams home from the Detroit Lions last season. By letting go of Terrell Owens in the offseason, Jerry Jones and Company openly declared that Williams was the guy they are counting on to not just be a wide receiver, but a superstar receiver capable of helping carry the Cowboys deep in to the playoffs.

Williams' talent is undeniable. He sometimes drops easy passes but often makes spectacular catches look routine. He is fast, difficult to bring down, and an underrated route runner. Injuries and poor quarterback play have kept his production down but the Dallas Cowboys -- and fantasy owners -- are betting that is about to change.

For Roy Williams to justify his draft position, he will likely need to have at least 70 receptions, 1,000 yards, and a minimum of eight touchdowns. And while Williams' past production gives fantasy owners reason to pause, the gamble and investment the Cowboys have made should make them reconsider. Without question, Jason Garrett's offense should give Williams plenty of chances to shine. The preseason has shown that he will be involved early and often -- a good sign for fantasy owners. Like I said, the math is simple: if the Cowboys are to win and if Tony Romo is to be a top-10 quarterback, then Roy Williams will have to produce at a high level. He inarguably has the talent to do so and now he should have the opportunity. While I don't expect Williams to be one of the top fantasy receivers in the game, the Cowboys powerful offense and historically productive quarterback play make it a no-brainer that Williams should meet or exceed his draft position.

Downside - by Jeff Tefertiller

The Dallas Cowboys are hoping that former Texas product Roy Williams can fill the big shoes vacated by Terrell Owens. The team gave the Detroit Lions a 1st, 3rd, and 6th round picks in exchange for Williams. In addition, the Cowboys gave him a contract worthy of a stud pass receiver (5 years, $45 million). Could this is too much to ask for a receiver that has only once eclipsed 63 receptions or 836 yards? I think so. He only has one season where he finished better than WR29.

Williams is a very good athlete who is able to make the spectacular reception. The issues for him are inconsistent effort and hands. These are huge for receivers expected to be their team's WR1. While Williams does get the benefit of playing with Tony Romo, as opposed to the Lion passers, it did not help him in the ten games he played for Dallas last season.

Fantasy owners are drafting Williams much too high in drafts. He has an ADP of WR16, player 43 overall. To put this into perspective, he is being drafted right behind more proven options like Terrell Owens (WR14) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (WR15) and ahead of Braylon Edwards (WR17). Even though Edwards disappointed in 2008, he still outplayed Williams by a wide margin. The issue is not that Roy Williams could have a good season or not. It is that you have to pay a high price just to find out. He could produce numbers close to the ADP, but Williams' history has shown that the odds are not on his side.

Fantasy owners should not feel comfortable with Williams as a fantasy WR2. As stated above, he has finished higher than WR29 only once in his career. This means that he has been a startable fantasy WR2 (or better) just once. In his ten games playing for the Cowboys in 2008, Williams finished with a sub-par statistical line:

• 42 pass targets
• 19 receptions
• 198 yards
• 10.4 yards per reception avg
• 1 touchdown
• 8 receptions for 38 yards combined the last four games of the season

It is not a good sign that Williams' lowest yards per reception average of his career came in the ten games he wore a helmet with a star on the side. The microscope will be focused on Williams in Dallas. Former Cowboy All Pro Troy Aikman had this to say, "... the deal could be "one of the biggest busts in the history of the league" if Williams doesn't turn out to be a topflight receiver in Dallas." The pressure is on Williams to produce. Fantasy owners and Cowboy fans alike have high expectations for the ex-Lion.