Faceoff - RB DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers

Posted 8/12, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Colin Dowling

Sorting out DeAngelo Williams' fantasy prospects for 2009 seems to be a fairly straightforward exercise: if you think Williams will receive as many or more touches then last season, then his selection in the mid first round is a great choice. If you think his touches will decrease as Jonathan Stewart gains more of a role, then his current Average Draft Position appears too high.

The problem with that thinking is that you also must assume that Williams' 2008 season was not only an anomaly, but a significant statistical oddity that he won't come remotely near to in 2009. Consider this: Williams' numbers in 2008 (1639 yards, 20 touchdowns) were enough to finish the season as RB1 with 284 fantasy points. Cut 10% of that production off and he still would have finished as RB2. If you cut his production by 20%, he would have still finished in the top-10. You could take away a third of Williams' 2008 production and he STILL would have finished 13th. The only way that his ADP of eighth overall will be far too high is if he is incapable of matching 60% of his 2008 production. Do you really think he's going to be more then one-third less productive then last season?

Making the assumption that Williams will fall out of the top-12 of running backs means that you think Williams is lacking in talent, which is a tough argument to make based on his 2008 season. Rather, the "downside" argument about him has to do with the talent of Jonathan Stewart. As such, the risk in Williams isn't, "well, maybe he's not that good and 2008 was a freak thing." The risk is more, "he's plenty good but so is Carolina's other running back, and that could impact Williams' production." Fair enough.

What's the point? The point is that for all the worry about the presence of Stewart, Williams was a Tomlinson/Faulk/LJ type force in 2008. If Jonathan Stewart weren't on the Panthers, Williams would be a lock to go in the top-3 of every fantasy draft. But because of Stewart's presence, he's being selected 8th overall.

This isn't a situation where a talented backup is waiting in the wings to take over the starting job a la Travis Henry and Willis McGahee or Marshall Faulk and Stephen Jackson. What no one seems to be discussing is that Jonathan Stewart played a LOT in 2008 and Williams still finished as RB1. Stewart had a stellar year, finishing as the 24th ranked rusher in fantasy football. He had 183 rushes and 10 touchdowns in his own right. Barring a massive reduction in Carolina's interest in running the ball a ton (not likely) or a shift to a "one-back" system where Stewart is the featured back (similarly unlikely), it seems highly remote that Williams won't have the chance to put up numbers that would land him in the top-10 of running backs.

When you consider Williams can be 2/3s as good as he was in 2008 and still finish as a RB1 for your roster, his selection in the first round seems rock solid. Outside of Adrian Peterson, there isn't a first round rusher out there with as high of a floor as DeAngelo Williams. If there is a pick outside of Peterson this year befitting the adage, "you can't win your league with your first pick, but you can lose it" it would be Williams. He would have to lose a ton of carries AND be unproductive with his own touches to fall very far and I just don't see that happening. Once again, ask yourself: do I really think Williams won't be 2/3s as good as he was last season?

Downside - by Jeff Tefertiller

There is no doubting the superb season that Williams put up in 2009. He was amazing with 1,639 total yards and 20 touchdowns. Williams finished as the top-ranked fantasy back, mainly due to the high touchdown total. Can he repeat the storybook season? I do not think so. Why? I find it challenging to imagine that Williams can duplicate the touchdown numbers. The Panthers, as a team, have not scored as many touchdowns in a season as Williams scored last season. Below are the team totals for the Carolina Panthers since 2001:

Team rushing TDs by year

• 2001 - 9
• 2002 - 11
• 2003 - 9
• 2004 - 10
• 2005 - 17
• 2006 - 7
• 2007 - 7
• 2008 - 30

Coach Fox took over in 2002. If the team rushing TD number drops to 2005 level (or below), and Stewart scores some, it will obviously take a big toll on Williams' numbers for fantasy. In addition, eight of Williams' 18 rushing touchdowns came in just two games. Scoring four rushing touchdowns in two contests in a season is remarkable and tough to duplicate. Plus, seven of his scores came from 25 yards away or further. The 2008 season was out of the ordinary for the Panther star. In 2006, he scored 2 TDs in 154 touches. In 2007, he scored 5 TDs in 167 touches. Then, in 2008, Williams jumps up to 20 TDs in 296 touches. This, combined with the team touchdown totals, is the reason I expect Williams' touchdown numbers to decrease some. They will not have to reduce by many to make Williams not worth his current ADP (Average Draft Position).

Team rushing attempts and record per season under coach Fox:

• 2002 - 452 - 7-9
• 2003 - 522 - 11-5
• 2004 - 422 - 7-9
• 2005 - 487 - 11-5
• 2006 - 423 - 8-8
• 2007 - 451 - 7-9
• 2008 - 504 - 12-4

The team rushing attempts should regress in 2009, which will affect Williams. The two main reasons the total was so high last season was that Stewart AND Williams were healthy for most of the season and the team had the lead a lot more than in the past two years. Looking at these numbers, we can see that the Panthers' team rushing attempts is correlated to the team's record. Further, Carolina has not been able to put together two consecutive winning seasons. Williams had his career-high in rushing attempts in 2008.

Another reason to downgrade expectations for Williams this year can be found in comparing the schedules, last year versus this year. In 2009, the Panthers play the NFC East and the AFC East outside of the division. Last year, they faced the NFC Central and the AFC West. The East divisions in both conferences each have four teams with strong defenses, especially against the run.

Williams splits time with Jonathan Stewart. Stewart is considered a top-flight prospect. Many expect him to have an expanded role this season. He could very easily take some of Williams' carries, especially at the goal line. Last season, Williams had 38 (eight coming in one game) redzone chances to the rookie's 27. This could definitely change in 2009 as the coaching staff gains confidence in Stewart.

There are several reasons to think DeAngelo Williams will fall outside of the Top 10 fantasy backs in 2009. His touchdowns, rushing attempts, and redzone chances could all decrease this season. There are safer backs at his ADP who are the unquestioned RB1 on their teams.