Faceoff - QB Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals

Posted 7/20, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jason Wood

Kurt Warner is coming off a triumphant season, leading his team to the Super Bowl and re-establishing him as one of the league's most accurate and prolific passers. For many fantasy owners, this may seem like a career resurrection, but savvy owners realize that Warner never lost his elite skills. It had been seven seasons since Warner threw for 4,000+ yards or 30+ TDs, but in the years between he still completed 63.4% of his passes and averaged 7.3 yards per attempt. Elite numbers to be sure.

So what changed in 2008? One, the coaching staff committed to him after two seasons deciding between the cagey veteran and the high priced youngster, Matt Leinart. Two, Warner stayed healthy. Third, the Cardinals opened up the offense thanks to a relatively ineffective defense and an equally ineffective running game.

This year, it's difficult to expect Warner to repeat last year's numbers. The Cardinals drafted Chris Wells and appear committed to a more balanced offensive attack. Expect the team to attempt fewer than 630 passes. Also keep in mind that the Cardinals face a 1st place schedule. But just because Warner isn't a good bet for another 4,583 yards and 30 touchdowns doesn't mean he's not a good bet to finish as a top fantasy option.

Warner clearly has complete mastery of the playbook, but this will be the first preseason where he presumably gets all of the first team reps because last year he and Leinart were "battling" during camp. Even though Todd Haley left for Kansas City, Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt and OC Russ Grimm are proven, accomplished offensive minds in their own right. And last but certainly not least, Warner has the three-headed monster of Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston at his disposal. The world knows about Fitzgerald and Boldin, but Breaston logged 1,000 yards last season, too, and is arguably the NFL's best WR3.

Downside - by Andy Hicks

Using a fourth-round pick on a quarterback should only be on a near certainty. Can anyone honestly say that Kurt Warner is a good bet to finish as a top fantasy QB in 2009? As one of Warner's biggest supporters in 2008, my advice would be to avoid him unless he represents value.

In 2008, Kurt Warner had a number of things work to his advantage:

1. Matt Leinart was woeful in preseason.
2. Warner avoided injury.
3. He had three 1,000-yard receivers
4. His offensive coordinator was inventive and protected Warner.
5. The Cardinals benefited from a weak division.
6. The running game was atrocious.

Despite everything aligning perfectly Warner ranked fourth, which was great if you drafted him as your backup, but when everything that could go right, did, then balance is needed when evaluating his prospects for 2009. He'll need a repeat of that luck if he's to finish in the Top 6.

Let's get the age question out of the way. Can a 38-year old with a history of injuries, play a full season? In the last decade he's played every game three times, coincidently landing in the Super Bowl each time. For the other seven years he's either been injured or on the bench. How many 38-year old quarterbacks (or older) have finished with a fantasy ranking in the Top 6?

Answer=1. Warren Moon in 1995 at age 39.

Moon was a fantasy starter in his previous eight seasons. The last 38-year old quarterbacks with ADPs as high as Warner were Rich Gannon in 2003 and Steve Young in 1999. Both Gannon and Young rated as No. 1 fantasy QBs at age 37, but were major disappointments as 38-year olds. Age is but a number, but given the circumstances, an aging quarterback posting fantasy numbers in Warner's draft slot is unlikely.

Will Arizona have three 1,000-yard receivers again? When your team throws 630 times in the season, then good stats are a given for the QB & WRs. How will that change in 2009? For a start, Todd Haley, the successful offensive coordinator for the Cardinals was lured away by Kansas City. In his place will be a triumvirate involving separate running and passing coordinators and the head coach Ken Whisenhunt calling the actual play. Whisenhunt would like to see a more balanced offense and to help in that regard drafted Chris Wells in the first round. The Cardinals have notoriously struggled to run the ball over the years and the drafting of Wells is a clear signal that they want to improve on the 32nd ranked run offense of 2008. Any reduction in passing plays is going to hurt Warner's numbers severely.

Some are advocating drafting Warner and then cautiously using another pick to get a strong backup. This is difficult to advocate given the comparative players available at these stages of your draft. Don't do it. In fact I'd recommend avoiding Warner unless he falls to the sixth or beyond.