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Faceoff - OLB DeMarcus Ware, Dallas Cowboys
Posted 8/12, exclusive to Footballguys.com
Upside - by Jeff Pasquino
DeMarcus Ware is one of those rare NFL players that transcends his position. He is more than just a defensive end, much like Ray Lewis is more than just a linebacker or Troy Polamalu is more than just a safety. These players are outstanding Pro Bowl caliber talents but they are also formidable forces on the gridiron, dictating to the point where offensive coordinators have to account for them on every play. They are the heart and soul of their team's defensive unit and often have that "big play moment" that can change a game.More to the point, Ware is a sack master and virtually impossible to shut out from racking up at least one tackle of the quarterback every game. He can line up on either side of the ball or even bring pressure up the middle, targeting the weak spots on the offensive line to create opportunities for both himself and the rest of the Cowboy defense.
There's more to it though -- DeMarcus Ware can put up the tackle numbers as well. Last season Ware had five or more tackles in 12 of 16 games last season, and he has shown improvement across the board for his defensive statistics. Ware had just eight sacks in his first year with 58 tackles (47 solo). Building on those solid numbers, he hit double digit sacks for the first of three consecutive seasons (12, 14 then 20 last year) and continued to build on his tackles with increases every season -- 74 in 2006, 84 in 2007 and 84 with 69 solos last year. Ware's hardly a one-dimensional player -- he is a force against both the run and the pass.
DeMarcus Ware is in a contract year, which should keep offensive coordinators up at night all winter long. Ware had 20+ sacks last season and he is a near lock for 15+ sacks and 70+ tackles this season. Dallas added Igor Olshansky as their other starting defensive end, creating another problem for offensive lines and improving Ware's chances to see more single blockers. While it is true that no player has ever topped 20 sacks in consecutive seasons, Ware is a special talent that could easily be the first name on that list.
Downside - by Aaron Rudnicki
DeMarcus Ware is coming off an incredible season in which he finished with 20 sacks, which has likely left his fantasy value at an all-time high. While it would not be a huge surprise if he was able to put up similar numbers again, the odds are clearly against him. Putting up 20+ sacks in a single season is something that just does not happen very often. There have only been 6 other seasons with 20 or more sacks and no player has ever done it twice in their careers.In addition to normal regression towards the mean after such an amazing season, there are a few additional factors going against him in 2009. First, the offense figures to be much less potent due to the loss of Terrell Owens who scored 38 TDs over the past 3 seasons. Without a high powered offense to strike fear into opposing teams, Ware should wind up with much fewer pass rushing opportunities this year. Second, it seems inevitable that Ware is going to have a huge target on him from blockers in every game the Cowboys play. The team lost a combined 11 sacks in free agency when Greg Ellis signed with the Raiders and Chris Canty signed with the Giants. Igor Olshansky and Anthony Spencer will try to replace them, but Olshansky has just 11 career sacks in 5 seasons and Spencer has shown very little during his two years in the league.
While Ware is clearly one of the best linebackers in the league, his value and that of other top 3-4 OLBs is very dependent on the scoring system being used. If sacks are highly valued, then he has clear LB1 potential. If the scoring system is more balanced or tackle-heavy (like FBG scoring is), then he drops outside of the elite and is more likely to finish in the LB2 or even LB3 range with some large variation in his fantasy point totals from week to week. Ware is not a risky choice, but there are likely better options if you prefer consistency and reliability from your linebackers.