Faceoff - WR Kevin Walter, Houston Texans

Posted 7/29, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jeff Haseley

Is Kevin Walter someone you should target as a WR3 for your fantasy team this year? He's a mid eighth round pick in 12-team redraft leagues as of mid July (ADP 90, WR33). Can you count on him to be fairly consistent week to week and win a few games here and there for your team? That's exactly what he did last year, but can he do it again?

What's to like about Kevin Walter?

• The Texans were 4th in the NFL in fantasy points for WR/TEs in 2008. As the WR2 for the Texans last year, Kevin Walter finished as the 19th best WR.
• Walter had at least three receptions in 11 of 16 games in 2008. He finished with 8 TDs, including two multiple TD games.
• He's a big target at 6-foot-3, 221 pounds. He's no slouch in the red zone. Andre Johnson led the team with 28 red zone targets, but Walter was right behind him with 24. That's one and a half RZ targets per game. Not many WR2s can boast that.
• Due to teammate Andre Johnson, Walter nearly always has single coverage, not to mention drawing the weaker coverage corner.
• Two consecutive seasons of at least 60 receptions and 800 yards receiving.
• Walter has not missed a single game since 2003

Is he a valid WR3 option?

• He's a good, not great option at WR3 if he picks up where he left off. Yes he will come through with a few clutch fantasy games for your team, but he won't consistently be a 5-6 catch per week performer.
• There are other WRs being drafted around his ADP of 90th overall that have more upside. For example Donnie Avery ADP 89, or Lance Moore ADP 84.
• There's a drop off in WR talent around the 85-95 overall picks. Walter may not be a great WR3 pick, but if you can get him as a WR4, you've done well.

If at all possible, you want your team's WR3 to be a WR1 on his team. In other words, a player like Bernard Berrian, Jericho Cotchery or Donnie Avery who will likely be the team's primary receiving option. That is not the case with Kevin Walter, which is why he's a better WR4 than a WR3. His value will increase if he drifts into the 9th round (12-team) or past the overall 95th pick. It's a stretch to think he will repeat his eight TD performance and 19th ranked finish from last year, but don't forget he's on a good receiving team (4th in the league in WR/TE fantasy points). He will have value, especially if he falls down the board and you can get him as your WR4.

Downside - by Sigmund Bloom

Kevin Walter's year-end stat line from 2008 is a classic example of why looking at season totals can be deceptive and hide the real fantasy player you're going to get.

At first glance, Walter's 2008 numbers make him look like a pretty solid WR2. He finished with 60 receptions for 899 yards and eight touchdowns, good enough for 19th among all wide receivers. His current ADP of WR35 and #92 overall is a downright steal when his numbers are viewed in that light. All it takes is an examination of Walter's game-by-game numbers to see the catch (no pun intended).

Walter had less than 50 yards receiving and zero TD half of the time last year. Eight times in 16 games, if you started Walter, you got numbers that at least 10 waiver wire wide receivers eclipsed that week. Granted, he had a few great games the rest of the time, including a pair of two-touchdown games, and one game with over 100 yards receiving. Either Walter helped you win, or he helped you lose. If you were marching out Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson as your top two receivers in a start three league, maybe Walter would be viable, but otherwise, he was a potential liability that you couldn't afford to absorb in any given week.

Last year, Walter's inconsistent production was consistent in a way. Starting with week one, Walter was "on" every other game... until the all-important week 16, the Super Bowl week in most fantasy leagues. Walter was supposed to be "on"; instead he had two catches for 17 yards and a rush for 13 yards. This underscores the problem with relying on Walter as more than an emergency bye week/injury WR - as soon as you think you can count on him, he kills you with a dud. His ADP makes him a starter in start 3 WR, 12 team leagues, and the first WR off of your bench in start 2 WR leagues. Those roles are too crucial to be trusted to an inconsistent player like Walter.

When you can get more consistent vets like Donald Driver and Torry Holt, or up and coming WRs with major upside like Donnie Avery, Michael Crabtree, or Devin Hester within 10 picks of Walter's current ADP, why would you spend a pick on Walter? Chances are the wideout you would pick up off of waivers that week will outscore Walter anyway, so if you feel inclined to select Walter, decide to pass and let someone else take the rollercoaster ride.