Faceoff - RB Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons

Posted 8/3, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Sigmund Bloom

After a top-five season that many didn't see coming, you would think Michael Turner would rightfully take his place among the fantasy elite this year. Still, there is one school of thought that is trying harder to find reasons that Turner will come back to earth than looking at the reasons that 2008 could be just the beginning of Turner's greatness in fantasy circles.

Let's address this business that Turner's carries will be cut down this year. Of course the Falcons intend on not having Turner run the ball 377 times again. No team intends on riding their RB like that during the season. First of all, we shouldn't knock Turner down because this should be construed as a sign that a) isn't able to handle that load or b) he's in danger of being a lesser back this year because of his 2008 workload. Turner was a backup RB in San Diego, and he basically has the legs of a second or third-year player. Second of all, that wish is based on getting Jerious Norwood more work than he has gotten in the last three seasons. Three coaches now have expressed that wish, and we are still waiting for Norwood to get a bigger workload. The problem is that Norwood's high-cut, receiver-like build makes him prone to lower leg injuries, and he hasn't been able to consistently stay healthy. That's why I keep referring to the cut-down in Turner's workload as a wish, not an inevitability.

It is reasonable to expect Turner to end up with only 320-330 carries this year, but even if he gets three or four less carries a game, a lot of signs point to him to his touches having even more fantasy potential this year. You have the addition of Tony Gonzalez, who make take away a few TDs in the red zone, but he'll also open up running lanes both as a blocking and by getting the safeties attention as a receiver. You have the progress of Matt Ryan, who had a rough start and end to the 2008 season. If he's better at running the offense that will result in more drives that end in Turner TDs. Here are some of the stat lines that Turner put up while Ryan was learning the ropes early last year:

• Week 2 @TB 14-42 1-6
• Week 4 @CAR 18-56 1-(-1)
• Week 6 CHI 25-54
• Week 8 @PHI 17-58

The likelihood of those stat lines happening with that kind of frequency this year goes way down with the introduction of Gonzalez and a more-seasoned Ryan. Consider it a gift from your leaguemates if you can get Turner, one of the surest things in fantasy football this year, in the mid-first in a non-PPR, or late first in a PPR league.

Downside - by Chris Smith

This is a very difficult face-off to tackle. After all, Turner put in a monster season in 2008, finishing as the best running back in fantasy football. The offense is pretty much returning intact aside from the addition of TE Tony Gonzalez which is certainly a positive move for every offensive player. Turner will still be a strong option in fantasy football but there are some reasons to lower expectations slightly this season and to keep him out of the top-three of your cheat sheets.

Reasons to not rank Turner inside the top-three this year

1. The number of carries last season takes its toll on him physically: While Turner doesn't have a ton of wear and tear on him throughout his pro career, last year he carried the ball 377 times. That is a ton of work for any running back and he could suffer physically after such a season. Not many players have had 370+ carry seasons in one year to have a similar workload the following year. The odds are against Turner carrying the ball 350+ times.
2. Regression to the mean: It is impossible not to believe that last season's masterpiece by Turner isn't the ceiling for this player. Every player has that one season that becomes their pinnacle campaign and it almost certainly was last year for Turner.
3. More confidence in passing attack: The Falcons are blessed with a wonderful, confident, young quarterback in Matt Ryan and he gathered steam as the 2008 season wore on. He'll likely get more opportunity to shine this year with the addition of Tony Gonzalez into the starting lineup.

Last Word

There is no question that Turner will be a top-ten running back this season. The situation is a good one and he should be able to carry the load again in 2009. The question is can he continue on with 25+ carries per game once again. The odds are certainly against him but he'll likely have a good fantasy season that sees him fall outside the Top 3.