Faceoff - RB LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers

Posted 8/12, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Colin Dowling

Fantasy Football owners are an impulsive lot. The year-round discussion and dissection of all things "Gridiron" often creates tidal waves of behavior that have no basis in reality. Good players get pushed down draft-lists because of a single bad playoff game. Third string running backs get pushed up draft-lists because of off-season hoopla and conjecture. It happens every year.

Fortunately, the fantasy football community has it 100% right this season with LaDainian Tomlinson. Not long after the 2008 season, there was discussion that he might be cut by the Chargers as well as discussion that he would never be the player he used to be. I even saw some dynasty leagues where he was being traded for 2nd round rookie picks. Oof. Thankfully -- and correctly -- his Average Draft Position is around RB7 as opposed to some ridiculous spot like RB20 as folks were predicting last March.

The fantasy community seems to have shaken itself and said, "This is nuts. LT2 is STILL one of the best backs in football. He's STILL the Chargers best weapon. He's STILL going to get the ball in Norv Turner offense close to 350 or 400 times this season. Why should he not be a top-7 pick?"

Some will continue to say that there are too many warts to ignore regarding Tomlinson. And they'll be the ones with the loudest voices saying "I told you so!" when he has a bad game. But let's go ahead and get rid of some of the common myths about LT2, shall we?

MYTH: "Tomlinson gets worn down at the end of each season and can't be counted on during the playoffs."

FACT: Tomlinson has 848 yards and eight touchdowns in seven career week 16 games.

MYTH: "Darren Sproles will be getting the ball more this season.

FACT: Tomlinson had a career low in total touches last season (344 total) and still finished as the 7th ranked running back in Fantasy Football. Even if Sproles continues cutting in to LT2's workload, he's still going to get the rock enough to be super-productive.

MYTH: "The Chargers are letting Phillip Rivers pass more to score, tossing it more often to the tight ends and receivers. The days of Tomlinson scoring a lot of touchdowns are gone."

FACT: The Chargers running backs accounted for 21 touchdowns last season, only five fewer than the receivers and tight ends.

I'll concede that LaDainian Tomlinson isn't likely to finish the season as the top running back in fantasy football, not with players like Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones Drew in the league. But it's absolutely laughable to think that a guy who just turned 30 in June is suddenly going to fall apart. For his career, Tomlinson averages 120 total yards and 1.1 touchdowns per game. Even if his production were to decline by 30% off of his career levels, he'd STILL post 1500 total yards and double-digit touchdowns.

The fact is that LaDainian Tomlinson remains a top-tier running back. Like players such as Marshall Faulk and Curtis Martin before him, Tomlinson is too talented and too driven to be counted out until we see it over a full season with our own two eyes. One day he won't be racking up 1500+ yards and double-digit touchdowns for the Chargers, but like the rest of the fantasy community, I'm not nearly ready to pronounce that that day has arrived just yet.

Downside - by Matt Waldman

Some of the best runners in NFL history performed at a high level well past the age of 30. Walter Payton, John Riggins, Marcus Allen, Emmitt Smith, Jerome Bettis, and Franco Harris are backs with quality fantasy seasons at age 34. Despite the fact LaDainian Tomlinson is 30, has surpassed 370-f carries twice in his career (2002 and 2006), and has suffered knee, toe, and groin injuries in the two seasons since that dominant 2006 season, I'm not ready to say his skills have declined.

However, Tomlinson is entering the twilight of a great career and the injuries in 2007-2008 significantly hampered his play when the Chargers needed him most. Yet when healthy, he looked like the same player we've all come to admire. It sounds like I'm arguing both sides of the issue, but the bottom line is I have Tomlinson ranked lower than several of my colleagues.

Why I believe LaDainian Tomlinson won't return to his recent years of dominance in 2009 has nothing to do with diminishing skills and everything to do with the rise of Philip Rivers and the Chargers' passing attack. Norv Turner favors a balanced offense and Rivers led the NFL with a franchise record 105.5 QB rating and finishing second only to Drew Brees as a fantasy passer in 2008.

Although Tomlinson was clearly limited last year, Rivers threw for 4009 yards and 34 touchdowns despite a still-hampered Antonio Gates and an underachieving Chris Chambers. Rivers accumulated over 4000 yards with only one, 1000-yard receiver while completing 65 percent of his passes. There are only 58, 4000-yard performances in NFL history and seven players are responsible for 13 of those years. The six with consecutive 4000-yard seasons had at least a 62 percent completion rate and 24 scores in year one. Rivers' greatest strength was his efficiency and it's hard to imagine that Norv Turner is going to send the offense back to the Schottenheimer era just because Tomlinson is healthy.

"You want to have an identity as an offense, but you can't be stubborn about it," Turner said in a recent interview with Scout.com. "The idea is to be good at a number of different things, so you can adjust when you have to."

Darren Sproles proved he's a true offensive weapon and rookie Gartrell Johnson has the power, agility, and vision to give the Chargers an effective three-headed rotation if needed. I don't believe teams make a conscious decision to limit a player's carries for the postseason, but I think the Chargers are hopeful that a by-product of a more diversified offense is that Tomlinson is healthy and fresh for the playoff run.

Tomlinson will still get most of the carries when healthy and I believe he'll be a top-15 fantasy RB in 2009, but to think the Chargers will put Rivers back in the box is foolish. Expect the Chargers to spread the ball and continue evolving at the expense of Tomlinson's fantasy value as a true No. 1 RB.