Faceoff - RB Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints

Posted 8/28, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Andy Hicks

Anyone drafting Pierre Thomas will do so with a hint of trepidation regarding the fitness and performance of Reggie Bush. Rest assured - Thomas will be the No. 1 ball carrier, goal line back and a significant receiver on a strong offense with a fearsome passing attack. In other words Pierre Thomas will be a steal at his current ADP and should be one of the safer bets for fantasy success heading into 2009.

Let's deal with the issue of Reggie Bush head on. There are two angles to consider here:

The first is if Reggie Bush is fully fit and is on the field for the majority of plays. In this scenario Bush probably won't see more than 10 carries a game anyway, as most of his work will revolved around the passing game. As a runner, Bush has repeatedly demonstrated that he is not suited to a heavy workload. His impact will come when the Saints can give him some space to work with. Pierre Thomas in this situation will still see 60 to 70% of the carries, which should be 250+ carries and around 40 to 50 receptions. He will be the goal line back in the powerful Saints offense, which means a consistent flow of touchdowns. Remember that Deuce McAllister and his five touchdowns are out of the picture this year.

Now let's look at the scenario if Reggie Bush continues to foster the injury prone tag, especially on that troublesome knee of his, which is recovering from off season microfracture surgery. Pierre Thomas demonstrated in his time as the primary back very special fantasy statistics with nine touchdowns in his final six games and averaging well over 100 combined yards a game. It doesn't take a genius to work out that in this situation Thomas is easily an RB1, if not one of the fantasy elite.

With the Saints passing game affording no defense the opportunity to stack the box, Thomas will always have a high yards per carry figure, numerous touchdowns and around 20 touches a game, at a minimum. If the Saints defense makes any significant improvement on the average outfit that took the field last year, then this can only help Thomas close out games when given the opportunity. New Orleans displayed ample confidence in Thomas by not adding any significant back in either free agency or the draft, despite the release of Deuce McAllister and the injury concerns surrounding Bush.

Remember that this is the No. 1 offense in the NFL, in both points and yardage, and with that there will be plenty of fantasy points for more than one back. Pierre Thomas can justify his current ADP even with a fully fit Reggie Bush. With his downside being relatively limited and his upside as high as it could possibly be for a running back, Thomas is one of the best value picks you could find in the entire draft.

Downside - by Colin Dowling

Full disclosure: I don't think there is any way on earth that Reggie Bush will ever be the primary ball-carrier for the New Orleans Saints. I don't think he's effective enough and I think it's already been proven that he's not durable enough. As a result, it seems perfectly reasonable -- even likely -- that another running back on the Saints' roster will end up with a fair number of touches.

That said, Bush's presence is being widely understated. Almost all of the Saints' receptions to a running back are likely to go to Bush, despite Pierre Thomas's past production in the passing game. And Sean Payton has no doubt spent much of the offseason looking for new ways to get the ball in to Bush's hands. No, Reggie Bush may not run off tackle 15 times a game like Adrian Peterson, but he's also not going to be standing on the sideline holding his helmet either.

Current average draft position info has Reggie Bush being selected as RB23 in the 5th round. His teammate in the Saints backfield, Pierre Thomas, is being selected as RB17 a full round and a half higher. It strikes me as bizarre that the backup is being drafted ahead of the starter. This may indicate a lack of faith in Bush by the fantasy community but let's get real: Pierre Thomas is going to be used to handle the carries that Bush can't be effective with and not the other way around. Thomas will get the ball up the middle. Thomas will likely get the ball near the goalline. But the Pierre Thomas of the final 6 weeks of 2008 (677 total yards, 19 receptions, 9 touchdowns) was possible because Bush succumbed to injury. There is no doubt that with a healthy Bush in tow, Thomas's production can't be expected to match last season's fast finish.

To finish in the top-20 of running backs, Pierre Thomas is likely going to need 1,000 total yards and 8 touchdowns. Going off his career Yards Per Attempt, Thomas will need at least 250 touches to reach those numbers. In his career, Pierre Thomas doesn't have that many total touches. For all the certainty that Bush can't "carry the load" on his own, there also isn't much evidence that Thomas can either. The more likely scenario is that Bush and Thomas will split touches in a way that makes them both viable fantasy options but limits either's ability to break in to the top-10 or 15 of running backs. As such, barring another Bush injury (which is, admittedly, a possibility) Pierre Thomas's "best case scenario" will land him around RB17, which is where you currently have to draft him.

In the mid-third round there are a number of players with significantly more upside -- and significantly higher floors -- than Pierre Thomas. I'd be willing to be that Kevin Smith, Ryan Grant, and Darren McFadden have a better chance of blowing their ADP out of the water than Pierre Thomas.