Faceoff - DE Terrell Suggs, Baltimore Ravens

Posted 7/29, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Sigmund Bloom

It isn't very often that we can say the biggest threat to a player's value is how he is classified at fantasy league management websites, but that's really the only thing that has a strong chance of keeping Terrell Suggs out of the top five fantasy defensive linemen this year.

Terrell Suggs has played a hybrid DE/LB role for many years now, but many league sites continue classify him as a defensive lineman. Suggs playing snaps without his hand on the ground is probably at least partially responsible for his best fantasy asset - his consistency. Most defensive ends give their fantasy owners a rollercoaster ride during the season, often getting half of their points on the season in three or four big games. This is not a problem if you are lucky enough to have two studs that can trade off big weeks and give you a reasonable expectation of solid scoring from the position because the numbers average themselves out over time. Unfortunately, there aren't enough true #1 fantasy DEs to go around, and a consistent anchor like Suggs becomes that much more valuable when you take this into account. Unlike other consistent tackling DEs, Suggs still has the ability to put up a big game, whereas a Justin Smith, who is just as consistent a tackler, is not an explosive force in the sack column.

Suggs game log is a testament to his consistency. His lowest total was a two tackle, one assist effort. Most DEs have at least one or two games where they are held to one, or even zero solo tackles. For instance, last year's #3 fantasy DE Julius Peppers (Suggs was #2) had a zero and a 0.75 game - the zero unforgivably came in week 15, when most fantasy leagues are in their semifinal playoff stage. Suggs was over six fantasy points in 75% of his games, and over nine fantasy points in 10 of his 16 starts. Speaking of 16 starts, Suggs hasn't missed a game since 2004, and he has only missed three games in his entire career. He even proved that he can be productive while playing hurt, getting two sacks playing limited snaps with his shoulder in a harness in the AFC Championship game against the Steelers last year.

Terrell Suggs isn't likely to single-handedly win a week for you, but you can feel comfortable that he is unlikely to lose a week for you. His solid baseline of production and durability gives you the freedom to swing for the fences with your DE2 and capture some of the big scores that Suggs' peers will give you without the headache of having to overcome their down weeks.

Downside - by Bob Magaw

This is one of those dreaded faceoff assignments where by necessity somebody has the unenviable task of taking the downside of a player that is clearly one of the highest impact IDPs in the business. Just for the record, despite being tasked with the downside portion of this faceoff, his overall prospects look bright. It is difficult to see how a thorough and balanced appraisal could come to any other conclusion.

What's not to like? He has been durable (after missing two games his rookie season and one in his second year, he hasn't missed a start in his last 64 contests), a complete player with an all around game (not just a sack artist, Suggs has averaged 50 solo tackles since his rookie year), flashed explosiveness (nearly 9 sacks and 2.5 FFs in his six seasons of NFL tenure) and ultra-consistency (worst season 2007 with 5 sacks, but he still had 50+ solo tackles and finished 14th among DL). Also, DT Haloti Ngata is an ascendant player rapidly emerging as one of the most disruptive young interior DL in the league, and he is going to be a handful for opposing OLs in the coming years. Downside indeed.

It may be nitpicking, but if forced to search for downside factors (a blemish on the Mona Lisa?), he did have the aforementioned 2007 campaign with 5 sacks and a 14th place finish. Suggs will certainly be taken higher than that in redraft leagues, so any kind of a regression to those levels would cause him to disappoint. Though he finished 2nd among DL last season, he received a big play scoring boost with 2 INTs and this should prove difficult to replicate (for perspective, 3 INTs in his previous five seasons combined), and his overall numbers would be blunted in their absence. Suggs lines up at times both as a 4-3 DE and a 3-4 OLB. The Ravens have suffered attrition at the LB position in recent years (never really adequately replacing OLB Adalius Thomas after his departure in free agency to the Pats, most recently losing OLB/ILB Bart Scott to the Jets within minutes of the start of the 2009 free agency period, not to mention MLB Ray Lewis, the top MLB of his generation, has slowed down and begun to look more mortal in recent years) and some of Suggs' sacks were no doubt due to the chaos caused by the offense not knowing where the pass rush is coming from. With less playmakers to work with on defense, it will be harder to create the kind of scheme/personnel mismatches that have been so favorable to Suggs in the past.