Faceoff - RB Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers

Posted 8/12, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Colin Dowling

Here's a rhetorical question for you: How is a running back that averaged 4.6 yards per carry and scored 10 touchdowns (tied for 7th among running backs) last season being drafted after three tight ends, nineteen receivers, nine quarterbacks, and twenty-six running backs?

For some reason, despite the fact that more and more NFL teams are tending towards splitting the rushing workload between two backs, fantasy owners continue to think that a Running Back By Committee situation can't be beneficial for all backs involved. Perhaps the allure of Derrick Ward getting 70% of the carries in Tampa Bay has them fooled. Or maybe it's Ryan Grant getting 80% of touches in Green Bay that has owners excited. Never mind that Grant barely averaged four yards per carry and scored only four touchdowns in one of the league's most productive offenses. Never mind that Derrick Ward has never been called on to be a 16-week starter and the Buccaneers have a new coach who may split his reps with Ernest Graham. For some reason, since we KNOW that Stewart is in a committee, he somehow becomes less desirable despite the fact that he was super productive last season with the touches he received.

Even granting that DeAngelo Williams is going to get the bulk of the Panthers running back touches -- and I think he will -- are we really to believe that Stewart is going to finish worse then he did in his rookie season of 2008?

For that to happen Stewart would have to fall shy of last season's production by a fairly wide margin. Never mind that he only caught eight passes and part of his obvious talent in college was as a receiver. Never mind that Stewart had fewer then 10 rushes in eight games (and six or fewer in four games). Never mind that his 10 touchdowns came in eight different games, meaning his production wasn't skewed by a great game or two.

To conclude that Jonathan Stewart is going to finish as RB27 this season, you'd have to assume one of the following:

• His presence in the passing game won't substantially increase.
• He won't receive nearly as many carries as last season.
• He won't be further utilized near the goal-line, where his hardnosed running style seems like a perfect fit.

If any one of those assumptions is wrong, Stewart is a near lock to finish around the same level as last season, about six spots higher among running backs then his current ADP. And if all three assumptions are wrong, then he could easily finish in the top-15 among rushers. Seriously, why isn't a guy like Jonathan Stewart getting more attention this season? Let the fact that others are overlooking him because he's in a committee be your gain. The Panthers are likely to run the ball a ton, Stewart is likely to catch more then eight passes, and it's hard to envision a scenario in which Stewart will be given only a handful of touches in any given week. While the presence of DeAngelo Williams is likely to keep Stewart from being a premier running back, his production in 2008 clearly shows that he can be a fantasy force in his own right and basic logic dictates that he'll get plenty of chances in 2009 to prove it.

Downside - by Sigmund Bloom

Jonathan Stewart is the most talented running back that is going outside the top 20. He will eventually put up a top-five overall fantasy season behind the collection of road graders they've assembled on the offensive line in Carolina. One of these years, a lot of people who draft Stewart will go deep into their playoffs because he will outproduce his ADP by a large margin. Unfortunately for people who draft him, 2009 is unlikely to be that year.

Stewart is second fiddle in a committee with DeAngelo Williams, and that won't change in 2009. "So what", you might say, "Stewart was still RB24 last year with that limited workload, good enough to be an RB2 in a 12 team league, I'll take that in the late fifth." The problem that logic is that everything broke right for the Panthers last year. They won 12 games and got over 500 carries from their running game. They had 30 rushing touchdowns, six more than any other team had in 2007 or 2008. Stewart clearly benefited from their winning ways; in fact, he only averaged four fantasy points per game in the four Panther losses (compared to 11 points per game in Panther wins). Stewart had four games with 2.1 or fewer fantasy points in the first 13 weeks of the season - almost one-third of the time, he was nearly worthless. You can not afford that many duds from your fifth round pick.

Even with his inconsistency, Stewart is an attractive pick because, hey, if DeAngelo goes down, Jackpot! Too bad Stewart has been the more injury-prone of the two backs. Stewart had nagging ankle injuries that caused him to miss time or limited his effectiveness in his freshman and sophomore years. He didn't miss time in his junior year, but Stewart needed surgery to repair turf toe at the end of it. This offseason, Stewart was conspicuously missing from OTAs nursing an Achilles injury. If any Panther RB's value is going to be enhanced by an injury this year, it's probably going to be DeAngelo Williams and to a lesser extent, Mike Goodson.

Just for good measure, if you're taking Stewart thinking he'll give you that final push in the playoffs, he faces Minnesota and the New York Giants in weeks 15 and 16, the #1 and #8 rush defenses from 2008 - and the #8 Giants improved in free agency to having the most fearsome rotation of defensive linemen in the league.

If you take Jonathan Stewart, you'll either be plugging him in as an RB2, a flex, or eschewing a chance to take a top six TE, top eight QB, or top 25 WR to have him on your bench. You'll be reduced to hoping for a DeAngelo Williams injury, and when you do play Stewart, you'll be rolling the dice that you get a repeat of one of his three 15+ point games in 2008, instead of slightly more likely repeat of one of his four 2.1 or less point games from '08. If Williams goes down, Stewart owners will look like geniuses, but the much more likely outcome is that they have to limp through a weakness elsewhere to watch Stewart languish on their bench or cost them a few key weeks when they do plug him in the lineup.