Faceoff - RB Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions

Posted 7/29, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jeff Tefertiller

Kevin Smith is one of the few backs available in the third round or later that is his team's primary ball carrier and one with considerable upside. His game should see improvement in year two in the NFL. In addition, the Lions will be better under the new coaching staff. There are several reasons for optimism in drafting Smith.

The Lions, under new offensive coordinator, Scott Linehan, have installed more power running plays in addition the zone blocking plays Smith has been accustomed. These new power plays can only help Smith and his hard-running style.

The quarterback play last season was atrocious. The Lions had a revolving door at the position. Jon Kitna gave way to an out of shape Daunte Culpepper and green Dan Orlovsky. This season, Culpepper is fit and in shape. He will battle rookie Matt Stafford to be the opening day Lion passer. Either way, the quarterback play should improve considerably in 2009.

In 2008, one major issue working against Smith and the Lion running game was the porous defense and the overall weakness of the team. Detroit seemed to always be playing from behind. Lions coach Jim Schwartz has instilled a new attitude with the team. The new coach has brought in proven defenders which should translate into the Lions being more competitive as a team.

Last season, the Lion coaching staff did not adequately use its young runner. Smith started out with only 70 carries in the first eight games. He then averaged 21 carries a game over the last half of the season, finishing the season with 238 carries. Smith proved he can carry a heavy workload throughout college and the last half of his rookie season.

The Lions finished with only 349 rushing attempts last year. Coach Schwartz is a defensive-minded coach. He will want to have a strong running game to keep his defense off the field. Plus, the rookie head coach will not want to rely heavily on either Culpepper or the rookie passer to carry the offense.

It is a concern that the Lions did not address the offensive line early in the draft. The drafting of Brandon Pettigrew at tight end should help some. He is an able blocker from the tight end position. The Lions acquired veteran linemen Daniel Loper, Jon Jansen, Ephraim Salaam and Toniu Fonoti this offseason. Also, the Lions signed veteran fullback Terrelle Smith. The atrocious line play should be improved.

Even with all of the issues last season, Smith still finished as RB18 in fantasy leagues. His ADP this season is RB16 and player 30 overall. Smith has plenty of potential to exceed that ADP. He has no threat to his carries. Maurice Morris was brought in to be the backup. Smith is a workhorse back that should see plenty of opportunity. He carried the ball 72 times for 291 yards in the final three games. His scoring chances will increase as the Lions improve. Expect a strong season from Kevin Smith.

Downside - by Sigmund Bloom

Lost in Detroit's epic fail of a season (to the tune of being the first 0-16 team in NFL history) was Kevin Smith's outstanding second half of the season. Once Detroit took about eight games too many to figure out that Rudi Johnson was not a viable NFL running back anymore and committed to Smith, Smith answered the bell with 670 rushing yards over the last eight games of the season. That projects to a 1340 yard season, outstanding by any standard and unthinkably good on a winless team. Of course, these kinds of things rarely escape stat-obsessed fantasy owners who will be quick to figure out that Smith's so-so year-end numbers conceal a budding star at running back. And they're not wrong, but that doesn't mean you should spend the #30 overall pick it would currently take to land Smith on him in your fantasy draft.

The most compelling argument against taking Smith is that, well, he plays for Detroit. Running backs tend to do best on winning teams, and even the most optimistic Lions fan wouldn't project them for more than five or six wins this year. Smith will be taking carries from either Daunte Culpepper, who might on one of his last few laps around the league, or Matthew Stafford, who will face the same uphill battle every rookie QB faces. Defenses will certainly key on the running game and force the QB to beat them.

It's also easy to overlook the fact that Rod Marinelli seemed to abandon every other running back on the roster last year. During Smith's strong second half, the other backs on the roster got a grand total of 19 carries to Smith's 169. There's no way that will happen again, as the team signed Maurice Morris to three year, seven million dollar deal. That's backup money, but it is "backup we'll use" money. The team also looked at Derrick Ward in free agency, and they were poised to take Chris Wells at #33 if he had fallen two more picks in the draft. In other words, they like Smith, but they don't exactly see him as "the answer". Morris will certainly get more than two to three carries a game - he handled workloads between 132 and 161 carries over the last three years in Seattle.

The easiest argument against taking Smith is a list of the running backs with similar ADP that you will have to forgo to get Smith: Ryan Grant, Ronnie Brown, Pierre Thomas, and Marshawn Lynch. All of these backs have demonstrated the ability to be true fantasy studs in the past, and all of them of play in better situations than Smith's. Smith will likely hold the line as a third-round pick this year, and possibly help you get to the playoffs. Grant, Brown, Thomas, and Lynch are the kind of backs that have the potential to greatly outperform their ADP, and help you win your league. If your leaguemates overlook Smith and let him slip to the fourth round, snap him up, but if you're tempted to take him in the third, think twice and look elsewhere for your RB2.