Faceoff - RB Steve Slaton, Houston Texans

Posted 8/3, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Mark Wimer

Steve Slaton posted over 1600 combined yards (268/1282/9 rushing and 50/377/1 receiving) last year - he was the sixth best fantasy RB in the land last year. Slaton posted five 100+ rushing yard performances, and went over 100 yards combined (rushing and receiving) in nine contests. With 50 receptions to his credit last year (out of 59 targets), Slaton also` proved to be a sure-handed receiver out of the back field - he's fantasy gold in PPR leagues. Slaton's backups are the oft-injured Chris Brown, and some other guys who have never proven themselves at the NFL level (Ryan Moats, Arian Foster, and Jeremiah Johnson). In short, Slaton is one of the few RBs left in the entire league who isn't threatened by a complimentary running back - he should easily top 300 touches on the ball again this year as a 3-down weapon for the Texans.

In addition to Slaton's strong (almost unassailable) position atop the depth chart in Houston, the surrounding cast of talent on the offense is quite impressive. QB Matt Schaub is a very capable starter, with an all-world talent to throw to in top WR Andre Johnson. Kevin Walters and Andre Davis round out the top three WR positions, while TE Owen Daniels is a solid player who handled 100 targets for 70/862/2 receiving last year. Opposing defensive coordinators won't be able to solely concentrate on stuffing Slaton given the other weapons on this team. Other than the Titans' sixth-ranked rush defense (average of 93.9 rushing yards allowed per game), the other AFC South teams aren't particularly stout vs. opposing rushers (Jacksonville was 13th-ranked in the NFL last year, allowing 106.8 rushing yards per game on average, while the Colts were 24th in the league averaging 122.9 rushing yards allowed per game). According to Footballguys.com's Clayton Gray, the Texans enjoy a very favorable strength of schedule for Slaton to feast upon - he should have a relatively clear path to big fantasy numbers during 2009.

Slaton has proven talent (he averaged 4.8 yards per rush during 2008!), an unchallenged position as the lead back in Houston, and a surrounding cast that will help create running lanes for him during 2009. He should appear among the elite fantasy RB ranks this year. Draft him in the first round this year and you won't be sorry.

Downside - by Andy Hicks

Steve Slaton is a difficult proposition to rate in 2009. We only have one season of performance to evaluate, he is one of the smaller starting backs in the NFL, his performance in the red zone is not good enough and the cost to draft him this year will be significantly higher than his ADP of last year.

Unlike the other second-year backs tagged as potential first round picks this year, Matt Forte and Chris Johnson, Slaton was not projected to be a major contributor heading into his rookie season. The cards fell fortuitously for Slaton however in 2008 with injuries to projected starters, Ahman Green and Chris Brown. Slaton not only held onto the job, he performed more that admirably thoroughly repaying those owners who used a late round pick on him in 2008. This year expectations will be considerably higher.

As one of the smaller lead backs in the NFL he was the 11th running back taken in the 2008 NFL draft, an obvious sign that there were major doubts about his chances to succeed in the NFL. Backs not drafted highly tend to require some fantasy owners such as myself to see a repeat performance before we become believers. Many later round running backs become one season wonders, and I could name many that fit this category, or like Brandon Jacobs or Michael Turner need a few years worth of seasoning. I'd prefer to use my 1st round pick on a proven commodity or if I have only one season's worth of analysis to base a pick on, I'd prefer it to be on a guy who was the among the cream of the crop in his NFL draft class. The name Domanick Davis (Williams) comes to mind when analyzing Slaton. A former Houston Texan, who was a middle-round draft pick, fell into the starting role and whose body couldn't take more than a few years at the pro level.

Another of my major concerns surrounding Slaton was his conversion rate at the goal line last year. He converted only four of his 18 opportunities at the goal line and without stating the obvious you need your first round pick to produce consistent levels of touchdown production, most of which comes at the goal line. Slaton strikes me as the kind of back who could drop from 10 touchdowns to a handful. He also does not appear to be a 300-carry-a-season guy either. Expecting first round production from a guy who won't see 300 carries and won't be a reliable touchdown producer are enough for me to let someone else use their first round pick on him.

Sure it's a conservative move to be cautious with Slaton heading into 2009, but my first round pick will almost always go on a sure thing. Slaton is far from that.