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Faceoff - QB Matt Schaub, Houston Texans
Posted 6/24, exclusive to Footballguys.com
Upside - by Clayton Gray
Matt Schaub is flying a bit under the radar, and it has to do with his location. As a Texan, he doesn't get much national publicity. The team hasn't been too great (but they are improving) and has to play second fiddle even in their home state. Still, Schaub is poised to be a fantasy star this season. Barring injury, he should finish ahead of guys like Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner, Donovan McNabb, Philip Rivers, and Tony Romo. With an average draft position of 69th overall (the 11th QB off the board), Schaub offers tremendous value this year.Schaub makes quick decisions and is able to progress through his reads easily. He has nice athleticism (especially for a 6-foot-5 QB) and usually leads receivers well (allowing them to get good chunks of yards-after-the-catch). He is both fearless in the pocket and throwing into tight coverage. While those attributes can sometimes lead to sacks and INTs, they also allow for big plays to occur.
Let's compare Schaub's 2008 stats to the numbers of the aforementioned QBs.
| Player | Cmp% | TD% | INT% | Yds/Att | Yds/Cmp | Yds/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schaub | 66.1 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 276.6 |
| Manning | 66.8 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 259.3 |
| Warner | 67.1 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 7.7 | 11.4 | 286.4 |
| McNabb | 60.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 244.8 |
| Rivers | 62.3 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 8.4 | 12.8 | 250.6 |
| Romo | 61.3 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 7.7 | 12.5 | 265.2 |
In most of the categories, Schaub is very much in line with these established signal callers and is among the Top 3 in completion percentage, yards per attempt, yards per completion, and yards per game. On Schaub's touchdown percentage is lagging. That will likely increase as the Houston offense further gels and gains experience as a unit.
And make no mistake -- this Houston offense has the makings of being an elite group this season. Kevin Walter and Owen Daniels have each emerged as capable play-making receivers, but the passing game is anchored by Andre Johnson. The seventh-year WR turned in a massive 2008 campaign as he totaled 115 catches, 1,575 yards, and eight TDs en route to a No. 2 finish among all fantasy WRs. Johnson is truly an elite WR.
Schaub's bargain-priced ADP of 69th overall gives his owners tremendous draft-day flexibility as it will be possible to take five great players at RB and WR before adding a QB with excellent ability. This ability to steal an upper tier QB will more easily allow the creation of a potent roster. The 2009 season will likely be the final season that Schaub offers true value. If he and the Houston offense develop as expected, he will permanently join the Top 5 of fantasy QBs.
Downside - by Chris Smith
The Houston Texans may be a team on the way up. The defense is adding pieces to the puzzle and the younger players have another year of experience under their belt. The running game improved last season thanks to a surprise rookie campaign from Steve Slaton and could be even stronger this year and WR Andre Johnson is still the beastly No. 1 receiver that will earn his receptions and yards week-to-week. So why could Schaub be a slight disappointment in 2009? There are a few reasons to use caution when drafting Schaub this season and certainly reasons to avoid ranking him inside your top-five at the quarterback positionReasons To Exercise Caution
- Inability to stay healthy as starting quarterback: In his two seasons as a starting NFL quarterback, Schaub has missed ten starts. With only 669 passing attempts over that span, it is challenging to project him finishing with more than 420+ attempts in 2009.
- Texans may go to a more conservative attack in 2009: The defense improved down the stretch last season and the running attack began to gather momentum. If the young defense can continue to advance in 2009, the Texans may throttle back on the passing attempts, allowing the running game to win some games for them.
- Only 15 touchdown passes last season: Schaub managed only 15 touchdown passes in 2008 on 380 passing attempts. In fact, he now has just 24 touchdowns through his first 22 starts in Houston, which translates into a mediocre 17 touchdowns through a full sixteen-game season.
Last Word
I believe Schaub will be a good marginal starter / great backup quarterback in fantasy circles this season. However he will have to make a huge jump in production to go from decent fantasy option to Top 5 as my debate opponent believes, and I believe his risks are too great to rank him inside the Top 8 at the position this year.