Faceoff - QB Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys

Posted 8/26, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Will Grant

No Terrell Owens? No problem. Last season Owens caught less than half of the passes thrown his way. He also had only two games with more than 100 yards receiving, and eight games with less than 40. One could argue that he was a much of a distraction down the stretch as he was a benefit to Romo and the Cowboy Passing Attack.

That being said, Romo's stats took a pretty big hit given his expected top-five performance last year. Despite the three games that he missed due to injury, he averaged a career low 7.7 yards per attempt and rushed for just 41 total yards compared with his two previous 100 + seasons. But despite all of these short comings, Romo still finished in the top ten for fantasy QBS. Not the lofty second round fantasy stats that many expected from him but still a solid fantasy QA starter.

This year, Romo will enter the season with a whole new group of players at his disposal. Talented, if under-achieving WR Roy Williams enters came over from Detroit midseason and will benefit from having a full summer to work with his new QB. Patrick Crayton returns as the #2 man, hoping to redeem himself after a disappointing 2008 campaign. Sam Hurd and Miles Austin have both shown solid performances in the pre-season, but need to show they can handle the spotlight this year. At TE, the always consistent Jason Witten is joined by second year man Martellus Bennett. While Bennett won't Challenge Witten for the #1 slot, he's an excellent safety valve for Romo if Witten and the WRs are covered.

The key to Romo's success will be to spread the ball around. Rather than one 'go-to' guy like Owens taking up all of the attention, Romo will have to use the patience that he has shown to find the open man and make the quick, accurate throw to take advantage of the opening. Romo's style of play is perfect for this as he's not a gun-slinger type of guy like Brett Favre. Romo is a 60+ percentage passer with high 90s for an overall passer rating. If he can maintain that level of accuracy and keep the ball moving to the open target, Romo has a great chance to return to his top five fantasy status. If his pre-season success is any indication, Romo is going to surprise a lot of folks this season.

Downside - by Colin Dowling

It's easy to find fault in Tony Romo. Between the playoff-week vacations, the tabloid headlines, and (most of all) the relatively marginal 2008 season, Romo is an easy target. But the reality is that any downside associated with Tony Romo has less to do with the things you've read about in People magazine and more to do with the "elephant in the living room" that isn't getting much attention: Tony Romo just isn't that good.

There, I said it.

As a Texan I am subjected to the Cowboys every Sunday on the NFC feed, and I can say with certainty that Tony Romo's problems have nothing to do with his good looking girlfriends or his celebrity lifestyle, but rather they have to do with the fact that without Bill Parcells (and the structure he brings), without a committed star receiver, and without the play-calling he had a few years ago, he simply isn't capable of consistently performing at a high level.

The cold hard truth is that Tony Romo went undrafted for a reason. Sure, he learned on the bench and was quite the feel-good fantasy story when he took over for the Cowboys. But that shouldn't assure you that his long-term prospects are bright. I liken Romo to a stud 22 year-old fireball pitcher. Sure, he's great before the All Star break. But when the opposition has a chance to watch game tape and see his tendencies, he isn't all that special. At least not yet.

Romo's best attributes are easily identified: he is mobile and can throw on the run. He had a big time receiver to make big plays in Terrell Owens. And his former coach (Parcells) knew how to put him in a position to succeed. Working backwards, Parcells is gone and any semblance of the system he had in place is now in Miami. The Wade Phillips / Jason Garrett combo is a disaster. Owens checked out mentally a year ago and physically (to Buffalo) in the offseason. I'm not ready to trust Roy Williams to fill the void just yet. And mobility only works long term when the opposition doesn't have the finest athletes in the world playing linebacker across from you.

Will Tony Romo be a decent fantasy selection this year? Sure, I guess. He could easily be a top-10 performer. But the reality is that he has likely peaked as fantasy player. He might end up as a top-10 quarterback again but if you are hoping for his 2007 season - when he finished as QB2 - you're wasting your time. His rushing ability is essentially gone (as evidenced by a mere 41 total rush yards and zero touchdowns last season) and his yards-per-attempt is headed in the wrong direction. As QB7 he doesn't look so bad. But as a fourth-round pick when players like Larry Johnson and Antonio Gates are still on the board, you're better off getting quarterback value a little later on in the draft.