Faceoff - QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

Posted 8/3, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Andy Hicks

After a few early concerns about the durability of Ben Roethlisberger, the dual Super Bowl champion has demonstrated the ability to not only play a full season, but be a productive fantasy option in his five years with Pittsburgh. With the all conquering Steelers defense dominating opposing offenses in 2008, Roethlisberger wasn't called upon to run the offense like in the previous season. Will the Defensive dominance continue to that high level again this year? Will the Steelers run the ball at every opportunity to complement the defense? Roethlisberger's down side is his fantasy ranking last year, but if he goes near his 2007 performance then he'll be one of the steals of fantasy drafts this year.

Let's quickly analyze the success of the Steelers defense of the last two years. It's not hyperbole to describe them as the best defense since the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, but will they match the success of other dominant defenses for two seasons consecutively? The Ravens were the last defense to be Top 3 for three consecutive seasons in either yards or points allowed. The last defense to be Top 3 in both categories for three consecutive years is the Chicago Bears between 1984 and 1986. In the current era it remains an extremely difficult task to dominate to that level and any regression in performance is not only possible, it's likely.

Now without contradicting my previous statements, dismissing Roethlisberger because of that defense is a poor argument. The 2007 defense was almost as dominant as last year, yet Roethlisberger finished that season ranked fourth. On the other side of the ball, despite winning the Super Bowl last season, the Pittsburgh offense as a whole only registered 35 touchdowns, a big drop from the 43 of the previous season. Recent Steelers history demonstrates that, contrary to popular opinion, the passing game gets the majority of touchdowns.

To win games, the Steelers either need to run the ball strongly or rely on Roethlisberger to get them touchdowns. Running the ball last year, the Steelers were a disaster, ranking Bottom 4 in yards per carry. Willie Parker has only once recorded more than five rushing touchdowns in a season, Rashard Mendenhall has yet to reach the end zone in his career and Mewelde Moore won't see much of the ball if other backs are healthy. Despite Roethlisberger having a down statistical year last year, he still remains the best option for the Steelers moving ball. With any drop in performance by the defense, the primary beneficiary has to then be the passing game. As an addendum, the news regarding civil proceedings against him, shouldn't affect his playing status and until they do I wouldn't worry about it from a fantasy point of view.

With the struggles of the offensive line to cohesively run block and none of the backs being a reliable option to get into the end zone, Ben Roethlisberger will once again carry the offense. Last year was realistically as low as he can go and while a fantasy ranking of fourth is unlikely, he stands a much better chance of at least becoming a fantasy starter once again.

Downside - by Sigmund Bloom

Deciding where you stand on Ben Roethlisberger as you enter your fantasy draft should be very easy since his astounding 2007 season has forever set expectations for Big Ben above where they should in fantasy leagues.

In 2007, Roethlisberger had an astounding 32 touchdown passes on only 405 attempts, which made him the #5 fantasy QB on the season. To put that in perspective, consider this: No other QB that had more than 300 fantasy points that year had less than 515 attempts. Last year, many drafted Roethlisberger as a top five or six fantasy QB, and what did they get for their troubles? The #17 fantasy QB - and not because Roethlisberger got hurt.

He played in all 16 games. Roethlisberger even got four more passing attempts a game in 2008 than he got in 2007. He finished with 17 passing touchdowns, 15 less than he got in 2007, but the same total he put up in 2004 and 2005, and only one less than he put up in 2006. Smart fantasy owners have accepted that Ben Roethlisberger is a good QB, a winner in the clutch, a champion, but not a fantasy QB you want to turn to because he's on a team that prefers to use their running game and defense to win games.

Why do fantasy owners continue to exercise wishful thinking, taking him in the eighth round at QB13, even though he finished as QB17 last year? Probably because Roethlisberger is still young (27) and he has proven that he can be a viable QB when things break right for him. The problem is that things broke right for him last year when the Steelers had major troubles in their short yardage running game and major health troubles on the depth chart at running back. That should only improve this year with the addition of Frank "The Tank" Summers, and the likelihood that at least one of Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall will be able to stay healthy this year. For a time last year, the Steelers starting RB was Mewelde Moore, which lend itself to the offense becoming pass-friendly. It actually did, and Big Ben had a string of seven straight games with at least 30 passing attempts in the second half of the season. His passing TD total in those seven games? Seven. Someone is going to overdraft Roethlisberger as a starter, or at least one of the first backups off the board. You're better off taking a backup with real upside like Matt Cassel, David Garrard, or Kyle Orton, all of which have a later ADP than Roethlisberger. Let someone else draft Roethlisberger too early on reputation.