Faceoff - QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Posted 7/29, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Mark Wimer

Aaron Rodgers was an elite fantasy QB last year in every sense of term, playing splendidly under immense pressure as Brett Favre's successor (and playing through a painful shoulder separation for most of the season). He threw 341/536 for 4,038 yards (an impressive 63.6% completion rate), with 28 TDs and 13 interceptions, and also rewarded his fantasy owners with 4 rushing TDs (56/207/4). When the dust settled on the 2008 season, Rodgers was the second-ranked fantasy QB in the land.

The Packers' offensive team is stacked with a good mix of explosive youth (Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, and James Jones) and savvy veteran experience (Donald Lee, Donald Driver, and Ruvell Martin) at every receiving position, with a reliable running game to keep opposing defenses honest as well. Rodgers is now firmly entrenched as the starter and last year's distractions are all behind him - despite his youth (he'll be 26 in December), he has four years of NFL experience under his belt now. All the pieces are in place for Rodgers to have another outstanding fantasy campaign during 2009.

Adding to Rodgers' fantasy prospects his year is the fact that the team plans on giving him more flexibility in the form of audibles at the line of scrimmage this season. "I just think that the way he calls plays, he'll give me more responsibility at the line of scrimmage this year," Rodgers said on June 21st. "I think it's him trusting that he can call more plays where there's more of a chance that I might change it at the line of scrimmage depending on what I see. And that respect level has grown through the type of preparation I have put in. I think he saw the way I prepared every week and knew, 'OK, he's studied the film, he's studied the game plan, he knows what to expect, so I can call the play in so if he doesn't like it or he sees something different, he knows what the correct checks are going to be,' instead of calling a play where you're kind of locked into this with no other options."

Rodgers is an extremely talented QB who has further room for improvement this season, and he'll have the flexibility to bring all his talents to bear during 2009 as well. I think he is the best fantasy QB prospect in the nation entering the July training camps.

Downside - by Marc Levin

To bastardize a famous Shakespeare quote, I come to praise QB Aaron Rodgers, not bury him. I am charged with writing the low side for Rodgers, but all the signs for his 2009 fantasy prospects are positive. He has an excellent set of receivers, a good offensive line, and a solid running back who keeps defenses honest. Plus, last year was a demonstration of his ability to use the talent around him to become a deadly fantasy QB. He is considered by many to be a virtual lock to finish as a top-5 fantasy QB.

To fulfill my obligation of generating a low side for Aaron Rodgers, I will not take the suicidal path of trying to convince you that Rodgers will not finish as a top fantasy QB. Instead, I will preach a few words of caution about Rodgers' situation, and many words of extreme caution about his draft position.

First, regarding his situation, the Packers lost quite a few games down the stretch in 2008 on their way to a 6 - 10 season. They could not control the clock and they relied too much on Rodgers' arm. This year, to win games, the Packers may emphasize RB Ryan Grant a bit more, especially later in games and in the red zone. That might keep Rodgers' numbers in the mere mortal range.

Second, I will discuss his draft position as the 36th overall player, just ahead of QB Phillip Rivers. Having the opportunity to draft such a safe QB a full round after QB3 Peyton Manning appears like a good bet -- until you look at the talent you give up to select a QB with your third or fourth round pick.

If you are in a position to take Aaron Rodgers at his ADP, you drafted at the bottom of the first/top of the second. And, you did not draft Drew Brees. That means you lost out on the elite RBs and QBs. You landed a serviceable RB1 and either a second serviceable RB for your RB2, or a top WR. At the third/fourth round turn, you need to build your WR and RB stable. You need to catch the drafters who took an elite RB and a couple more top-24 players on the comeback. According to ADP, instead of a QB, you could draft Jason Witten (TE1), Marshawn Lynch (RB19) or T.J. Houshmandzadeh (WR15). Locking in the QB4/5 is not your move here. Save that for rounds 5 and 6, when QBs like Donovan McNabb, Matt Ryan, and Matt Schaub are available and can service your team well.

A final point here -- it is much easier to trade for a QB with your WR/RB depth than the reverse. There is no indictment here of Rodgers as a fantasy prospect. Just a word of caution about falling too far behind your draft mates at the important skill positions.