Faceoff - OLB Keith Rivers, Cincinnati Bengals

Posted 8/12, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Anthony Borbely

Keith Rivers was the ninth overall pick in last year's NFL draft and the Bengals were hoping they finally had an athletic stud LB to help lead their porous defense to better things. His season came to an abrupt end in week seven when Hines Ward nailed Rivers with a blind-side block, which broke his jaw and sent him to the injured reserved list. In his six games prior to that, Rivers had 24 solos (including a game with no solos) and added 13 assists, a forced fumble and an interception. When you prorate his fantasy points over a full season, Rivers would have been in the top 40 LBs. When you consider he was a rookie and could have shown improvement through the course of the year, Rivers very well could have finished significantly higher than that had he played a full season.

Rivers is a highly athletic and physical player with a lot of upside. He plays on a poor defense and does not have much talent around him. A player of his talent who plays on a bad defense with little help should put up solid numbers by accident. The key is whether he plays on passing downs. He did not at times last year, but with this being his second year, I believe the Bengals will want his playmaking ability on the field and that he will be a three-down LB. I expect him to lead the Bengals in tackles and also believe he will create some big plays with his speed and explosiveness.

Keith Rivers is not the most refined LB around, but there are very few LBs with his athletic ability. The Bengals drafted another talented LB in Rey Maualuga, but he may not begin the season as a starter. There is not a great deal of talent on this defense and Rivers should have no trouble putting up solid tackle numbers. He was on pace to be a top-40 LB as a rookie. There are many who have him ranked even lower this year. When you consider the defense is still bad and has very little talent around him, Rivers seems likely to approach 85-90 solos and that puts him in the lower end of the LB2 range with plenty of upside. I think he is extremely undervalued this year and is a player to target in your drafts.

Downside - by Sigmund Bloom

As the ninth overall pick in the 2008 NFL draft, Bengals fans and IDP fantasy players have a right to demand a lot from Keith Rivers. He got on the field immediately last year and showed flashes of being an impact player in the NFL, but there are reasons to be cautious about expecting him to be more than a bench LB in your fantasy league.

Rivers came out of the gate strong last year after winning the weakside linebacker job in training camp. He recorded nine solos and an assist in the season-opening loss to the Ravens, and four solos and four assists in the week 2 loss to the Titans. That start becomes less impressive when you factor in that the Bengals faced at least 40 rushing attempts in each of those games. Middle linebacker Dhani Jones, who would be a bench player on most teams, had six solos and four assists against Baltimore and five solos and five assists vs Tennessee, so you have to ask yourself whether any warm body at linebacker would have had good numbers in those games. In game 3, the Bengals kept it close vs. the Giants, and only faced 25 rushing attempts. Jones played well once again, with eight solos and four assists. Rivers only mustered two assists and let down any IDP fantasy GMs who trusted him on the heels of his solid start.

Rivers did have one more good fantasy game vs Dallas, on the strength of an interception and forced fumble, but he failed to record more than eight total tackles in any of the remaining games he played in before Hines Ward ended his season by breaking his jaw. This is troubling because it means Rivers lost the chance to make "rookie mistakes" and get seasoned with a full season of play with little to lose.

With the addition of college teammate Rey Maualuga, there is another ferocious linebacker for Rivers to compete with for tackle opportunities. Rivers is a dynamic player, and more games like the one he had vs. Dallas will be in his future, but the reality is that his upside is a boom/bust LB4 like Thomas Howard, a player Rivers compares favorably to... once he hits his potential, which hasn't happened yet. Don't even think of taking Rivers before Howard is off the board, and then wait a few rounds before pulling the trigger, because he hasn't proven that he can be trusted as any more than a "swing for the fences" play in a bye week/injury situation.