Faceoff - RB Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings

Posted 8/3, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jeff Pasquino

So, how do you have a "high side" on the consensus #1 overall pick? Great question. I'll attempt to explain that in a few different ways.

First, there are very few true feature running backs in the NFL these days. After Adrian Peterson, only Michael Turner and Clinton Portis topped 320 carries last season. Turner is in a high octane offense in Atlanta that added Tony Gonzalez, and the Falcons have said that Turner will see fewer touches this season. Portis? While a nice back, picking him as the first RB of the draft is begging for an injury to a veteran that turns 28 in September with nearly 2,300 career touches. Both he and Peterson have had injuries, but all things being equal you have to like Peterson's fresher legs. Peterson was also considered an injury risk coming out of Oklahoma, but he played all 16 games last year and led the league in rushing yards while maintaining a gaudy 4.8 yards per carry average. As for Maurice Jones-Drew, he just doesn't have that track record of putting up lots of touches over a full slate of games, so that puts him a tier down on the drafting order.

So why should we expect more of the same and possibly even better numbers in 2009 for Peterson? That actually starts with the Minnesota passing game. Either Brett Favre or Sage Rosenfels is going to start Week 1, and the Vikings have added Percy Harvin to push Sidney Rice and Bernard Berrian to put up the numbers. With defenses now having to be concerned about the pass, Peterson is less likely to see safeties creeping up into the box and giving eight man fronts to slow him down.

Lastly, what about Chester Taylor? Should fantasy owners fear a committee or worry about getting Taylor in their draft as well? Taylor turns 30 in September and he only had 101 carries last season. He does steal some catches (45 last year) and scores (13 in Peterson's two seasons), but Peterson should be on the rise in his scoring ability while Taylor takes a smaller piece of the pie. Peterson only had 10 scores last season, so upping that number to 12+ touchdowns will only add to his likelihood of being the #1 RB in all of fantasy once again in 2009. As for the advice about getting Taylor -- you should grab him as insurance and you can with relative ease. Assuming you have the #1 pick and take Peterson, Taylor's ADP puts him as the 46th overall RB and a mid-10th round selection on average. Selecting Taylor at the start of Round 9 (or end of Round 8) is the added price of owning Peterson, but it is well worth it to lock up those big numbers.

Downside - by Matt Waldman

The fact that Adrian Peterson is my No. 2 overall player on my draft board and I'm the one chosen to provide a downside argument should tell you all that you need to know. However, every player has a potential downside. Peterson has an aggressive and physical style in arguably the most punishing position in football, and the body can only take so much wear and tear before breaking down.

Of course, Peterson is just in his third season, plays behind one of the best run blocking offensive lines in the NFL; added muscle to increase his explosion and stamina and the addition of Percy Harvin and (likely) Brett Favre to the passing game all indicate that the Vikings RB will lap the field of RBs in fantasy performance in 2009.

Stud? Yes.

Top back? No.

The reasons are Favre and Harvin. The Vikings have been a one-dimensional offense since Brad Childress came aboard because the coach's plans to turn Minnesota into the Eagles of the Midwest faltered when Tarvaris Jackson and Sidney Rice failed to make an immediate impact.

Favre proved last year that when healthy he was still a strong fantasy and NFL starter who could carry an offense for stretches and prevent defenses from overplaying the run. The only differences in Minnesota are the NFC North's familiarity with Favre, and the Vikings' receivers aren't on par with those in New York and Green Bay. Opponents will test Favre's physical health and familiarity with the offense early by loading the box and forcing the QB to beat them. If Favre stays retired, don't expect defenses to treat the erratic Sage Rosenfels much different.

Both QBs are upgrades to Jackson at this point and should do enough to make the passing game more efficient and explosive. It's logical to assume the beneficiary will be Peterson. From an efficiency standpoint, I agree. His yards per carry should increase and we may see more highlight reel runs with the safety forced away from the box, but Peterson's overall output will not be as monstrous as many believe.

The greatest reason is Percy Harvin. If Harvin can conduct himself like a professional off the field, he's going to be an instant impact player on it. He's an underrated route runner and a physical, elusive presence in the open field capable of burning a defense on a long throw or a short pass. However, it's his skill to get downhill between the tackles that will drive defenses to distraction, especially when the Vikings run the Wildcat with Harvin and Peterson as the backfield tandem.

Even when the Vikings run a traditional set, Harvin will be used extensively as a glorified runner on dump off passes and screens on 1st and 2nd down situations where they used to exclusively run the football. Peterson will be more explosive and efficient, but the Vikings won't need to run him into the ground like last year. And you know what that means...

Stud? Yes.

Top back? No.