Faceoff - RB Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers

Posted 8/28, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Sigmund Bloom

Willie Parker's 2008 is going to be remembered more for injuries than anything else, but if you look closer, you'll see a strong message that he is still "the man" in the backfield for the Steelers, and you'll realize that you can get a starting running back for one of the winningest teams in the league long after most starters are gone - even ones that play for bottom dwellers like Detroit and Oakland.

If you drafted Willie Parker last year, you thought you got one of the steals of the draft after week one, but soon after you wished hadn't. He posted another 100 yard game in Week 2, then got hurt while struggling mightily vs. the Eagles, sidelining him for five games. He had a couple strong games upon his return, but stalled out through week 16, eclipsing 50 yards rushing only once between Week 12 and Week 16 and scoring zero TDs. Even though Willie helped you win in week 1, he was either on your bench or killing you in your lineup during the most important part of the fantasy season. This kind of epic failure sticks in fantasy GMs minds, while the 116 yard, one TD game in week 17, and 147 yard, two TD game in the divisional round of the playoffs tends to fade from memory because it doesn't match the performance in the fantasy playoffs.

Because of the "what have you done for me lately" phenomenon, Parker will fall too far in fantasy drafts. He's the starter, no doubt about it, and the young buck that could threaten his job (Rashard Mendenhall) promptly suffered a broken shoulder when he started in place of Parker, so his durability is no sure thing either. Last year's goal line vulture (Gary Russell) is gone, and the Steelers drafted a new fullback and drive blocking guard, which could indicate that they held the line more responsible for the short yardage problems than they held Parker.

The only reason to stay away from Parker is if you're worried about his durability, but he only missed one game due to injury from 2005-2007. If you are still worried, then take Rashard Mendenhall in the 10th round. For a 6th round pick and a 10th round pick, you get the main ball-carriers on a team that is a favorite to win double digit games and go deep in the playoffs. Use other people's insistence on remembering the disappointment that Parker brought instead of the plum spot he's in to your advantage if Parker's still around after you've taken the cornerstones of your team.

Downside - by Will Grant

Fast Willie Parker has been the leading running back on the Pittsburgh Steelers since they won the Super Bowl back in 2005. However, last season he was banged up a lot and finished the year with less than 800 yards rushing and only 5 TDs. Even more troubling was the fact that he dropped to just 3.8 YPC, a full half yard below his career average of 4.3. That's a huge drop for running back that hangs his success on being able to beat defenders to the open slots and make people miss.

This season, Parker faces more competition for the ball. Second year man Rashard Mendenhall was one of the top rated rookie RBS drafted last season, yet injuries and ineffectiveness left him on the bench for most of the year. He'll be looking to make his mark this season to avoid the dreaded 'bust' tag that will quickly be attached to a 1st round back that isn't performing well. Former Viking Mewelde Moore filled in well for Parker last season, averaging a much better 4.2 YPC in the limited time he was in the lineup. He also reached the end zone five times. Both Moore and Mendenhall could turn Parker from the 1400 yard stud that he was a few seasons ago to a RBBC underperformer that frustrates fantasy owners trying to decide when to start him.

If Parker can stay healthy, he should bounce back this season. He won't be the every down back that fantasy owners are hoping for, losing touches to Moore and Mendenhall on 3rd down and goal line situations. But he should be able to crack 1000 yard from scrimmage and break a long TD or two this year. Early camp reports show that he's battling injuries to his hamstring and back. This is cause for concern and they can become a real problem if they linger into the regular season. Approach with caution when drafting Parker in 2009 and grab a handcuff back for him if you can in the later rounds. Just in case he misses a few games.