Faceoff - QB Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals

Posted 8/28, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Will Grant

Carson Palmer disappointed a lot of people last season. When he started the year, he was downright terrible. 230 yards passing, no TDs and three interceptions over the first two games had people running for the hills. Then, just as Palmer was starting to look like his old self with two solid games against New York and Dallas, he was lost for the remainder of the season due to an elbow injury. Considering most folks had him rated as a top five QB last year, his performance caused a lot of fantasy owners to be upset.

This year, you're seeing typical fantasy backlash where people are staying away from Palmer for fear of a repeat of last season. He's currently sitting at QB12 in the typical fantasy draft and is going somewhere in 7th round. That's big value given where Palmer projects to finish this season.

If he's healthy, Carson Palmer is probably going to throw for 3500 + yards this season and have 20+ TD passes. That should land him somewhere around QB8 from a fantasy prospective, making the 7th round pick that it will take to get him a big value potential.

Palmer is not without his question marks though. Losing T.J. Houshmandzadeh is a big loss to the Bengal offense. His replacement is Laveranues Coles who has come over from New York. Coles won't match Houshmandzadeh's production but he and Chris Henry should provide enough distraction to allow Chad Ochocinco to open up the field and give Palmer the targets that he needs to put up some solid stats.

The offensive line has also been re-tooled, with the addition of rookies Andre Smith and Jonathan Luigs. Both of these guys may take a couple weeks to get the flow of the NFL game, but once they are up to full speed, Palmer should enjoy better protection than the other Bengal QBS did last season.

Finally, an improved running game behind newly rejuvenated Cedric Benson will certainly keep defenses from bringing the house after Palmer. With a legitimate threat to run, improved offensive line, and a respectable WR corps determined to redeem themselves, Palmer should be a guaranteed pick to finish in the top 10 this season. Grab him in the late 6th and take advantage of other owners who are staying away.

Downside - by Jeff Pasquino

Carson Palmer is a prime candidate for a "buy low" type of player given that his track record of being a Top 10 fantasy quarterback for three years running (2005-2007) before his elbow injury last year. Whenever a player is lost early in the prior year there is a tendency to let him slide during a fantasy draft either out of health concerns for this season or just because his abilities have been sidelined and out of recent memory.

So given that a healthy Palmer was a Top 10 QB in the past, what would be different for 2009 if he is indeed 100% and ready to hit the ground running for OTAs and training camp? First and foremost for me is the loss of WR TJ Houshmandzadeh. For all three seasons where Palmer was a true fantasy starter he had Chad Johnson / Chad Ochocinco and Houshmandzadeh as his 1-2 punch at starters. Those two helped Palmer to put up stellar numbers as BOTH wideouts finished in the Top 15 fantasy WRs for all three of those seasons. Now Cincinnati has let Houshmandzadeh go to Seattle during free agency and decided to add Laveranues Coles to the mix. Even in Scrabble this is a downgrade. Palmer will not have a Top 15 target any longer on both sides of the field, and there is no telling how the loss of Houshmandzadeh will affect Ochocinco's performance against the top corner for every defense the Bengals face. All of the passing game is likely to suffer as most can expect when you remove the seventh-best WR last season from the equation.

The Bengals are trying to improve across the board, bringing in youth at both RB and on defense via the draft and free agency the past two years. While they still have a long ways to go to be competitive, Cincinnati should be better on defense and with running the ball to start to reduce to need to throw 30+ times a game on a regular basis. That may be a formula more conducive to winning NFL games, but reducing the passing attempts surely will lower Palmer's expected numbers. In all three of Palmer's best seasons he dropped back over 500 times to throw (a 31.25 attempts per game average). The combination of Cedric Benson, Brian Leonard and rookie Bernard Scott is nowhere close to the peak of what the Bengals had when Rudi Johnson was in his prime -- which just happened to coincide with Carson Palmer's best two seasons. Johnson had over 2,900 yards and 24 touchdowns in 2005 and 2006, balancing the Cincinnati attack and keeping the defenses honest. Without a true feature back the opposition will favor pass defense all season and try to limit Palmer and make the Bengals run - not a great recipe for Palmer's fantasy numbers this year. With so many other QBs available after the first 8-10 names get selected I would consider another option for my fantasy team's starting quarterback, and even if I did grab Palmer I would be very quick to grab a second option for I fear his season will be more of a disappointment than a rebound back to his prior Top 10 performances.