Faceoff - QB Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos

Posted 8/12, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by David Yudkin

Kyle Orton currently has an ADP of QB18, projected by FBG staff as low as QB25, and ranked as low as QB31 in the staff rankings, which is insanely too far down the quarterback food chain given the situation he is now in. The combination of coaches and talent should lend itself to solid passing numbers this year.

Orton probably needs someone to pinch him, as he went from one of the weaker passing situations in the league to one of the best in moving from Chicago to Denver. In terms of production, the Broncos generated 348.2 and 290.0 fantasy points from the QB position the past two seasons (compared to 268.8 and 234.4 for the Bears). Denver sported a pair of Top 20 fantasy receivers in Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal last year, while the Bears top receiver, Devin Hester, only ranked 44th.

The pass/run ratio is another benefit for Orton. In the Lovie Smith era in Chicago, the Bears have had a 52/48% pass-to-run ratio. Last season, Denver posted a 62 to 38 pass-to-run ratio and ranked in the Top Three in passing attempts. With the Broncos defense still expected to be one of the weakest in the league (they ranked Bottom Three in points allowed), Denver will again have to air the ball out to stay competitive week-to-week.

Of course, things have changed in the Mile High City, as Cutler's departure will impact those totals. However, new head coach Josh McDaniels should ensure a potent passing attack. McDaniels was a key figure in building a Patriots offense that set an all-time league team scoring record with 589 points scored in 2007. One component that has made the scheme the Patriots have run successful is an element of short, quick passes that are hard to defend. Those traditionally have yielded a lot of completions and steady yardage, all of which should benefit Orton.

For all the naysayers on Orton's prospects for 2009, be reminded that Matt Cassel seemed to fare pretty well in McDaniels' offensive scheme. Cassel had not started a game since high school and had very little live game experience for almost 10 years, yet he stepped in and ranked as the eight best fantasy QBs last year.

Don't expect the Broncos to evolve into the Patriots, but Denver's offense should still be a lot more productive than Chicago's was. Orton should rank as a decent fantasy QB2 (12-team leagues) with upside as a marginal QB1 if things work out.

Downside - by Colin Dowling

When you wake up tomorrow make sure and check that the sun rose in the East. Make sure that water is still wet and that one plus one still equals two. Why? Because some bizarre things are afoot in the world and it's always a good idea to make sure things haven't gone completely off the deep end. What might I be referring to? Simple:

Kyle Orton is a starting quarterback in the NFL. Even worse, he's starting for a team that traded away an inarguable talent (Jay Cutler to Chicago) and took him back HAPPILY to be the steward of their offense. Broncos fans, are you worried yet?

While the apocalypse may not be imminent, the issue of Kyle Orton being the Bronco's starting quarterback is worth harping on a little longer. Consider...

• In three NFL seasons, two as the starter for the Chicago Bears, Orton has completed only 55.3% of his passes for a very poor 5.8 yards per attempt.
• In that time, Orton has thrown 30 touchdowns and 27 interceptions. On a per game basis, that's less then a touchdown per game.

Despite such an abysmal performance, you're still likely to here at least a few people saying Orton would make a good choice as a backup quarterback. Their argument no doubt comes down to the following points:

• He'll be throwing to better receivers in Denver.
• He "wins games", having posted a 21-12 record as a starter.
• He finished as QB18 in 2008.

Let's tackle these points one at a time:

1. Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal are better receivers then Devin Hester and Rashied Davis. That seems valid until you realize that Orton's top two receivers last year were running back Matt Forte and tight end Greg Olsen. So putting Marshall's unresolved off-field issues aside, there isn't much evidence to suggest that Orton will be looking at his receivers anyway.
2. A 21-12 record is certainly admirable. But that doesn't have much to do with fantasy production, does it? Drew Brees is 25-23 in the last three years. David Garrard is 19-19. Outside of the extremes, does a win/loss record have any bearing on fantasy success?
3. Orton's 2008 season was a perfect storm. Aside from playing in 15 games while more talented quarterbacks like Matt Schaub, Tom Brady, and Carson Palmer missed significant time, Orton benefited from having three rushing touchdowns which tied him for second in the league among quarterbacks.

So we've established that all the "good" things Orton has going for him are pretty superficial, which is bad enough. But it gets worse: the Broncos brought in Chris Simms to compete with Orton. And while it is presumed Orton will win the job out of camp, his leash is likely to be short considering that Simms has a better arm (evidenced by 6.3 yards per attempt over his career) and better accuracy (59.1% in his career). Do I expect Simms to take the starting quarterback spot from Orton on his own merits? Not at all, but I'm pretty sure that Orton is capable of giving away the job on his own.

The truth is that none of this would matter if Kyle Orton were being selected in the mid-20s among quarterbacks. At that point he'd be worth the gamble as much as the Shaun Hills and Kerry Collins of the league. But Orton is being selected as the 17th overall quarterback even though he's never finished that high in a season. He's being selected ahead of David Garrard, Chad Pennington, and Jason Campbell -- all of whom are more firmly entrenched as starters and all of whom finished BETTER then Orton a year ago. If you have that much faith that Kyle Orton can go to a new team with a rookie coach, a new offense, and a mediocre offensive line and produce well then good luck to you. But don't say you weren't warned when his mediocre performance leads to less-then-mediocre results.