Faceoff - WR Santana Moss, Washington Redskins

Posted 8/28, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Sigmund Bloom

Santana Moss returned to the studly form that made him a top 10 fantasy wide receiver twice (and top 5 once) earlier this decade in 2008, but the fantasy football community didn't seem to notice. He overcame a lot to finish as WR17, yet he is still falling to WR28, according to current ADP. What the fantasy conventional wisdom is missing is that what Moss showed us last year is much closer to his floor for 2009 than his ceiling.

Moss started out the season as one of the hottest fantasy WRs in the league, scoring three touchdowns in the first four games while he averaged over 100 receiving yards a game. After a rough debut under Jim Zorn, Jason Campbell seemed to clicking in Zorn's offense, and everything was looking up for the Redskins. In the next two games against St. Louis and Philadelphia, opposing defenses treated Moss like an elite receiver, and basically had a game plan of "make someone other than Santana beat us". They were successful in taking Moss out of the game, which only goes to prove that he is not a top 10 fantasy receiver, but it's also worth pointing out that Jason Campbell was largely ineffective with his top target neutralized.

Moss had two more big games against Cleveland and Detroit, and finished the first half of the season as one of the top fantasy receivers despite two duds. A rough game against the brutal Steelers defense in Week 9 seemed to really take away Campbell's nerve, and he reverted to the cautious game manager we saw in week 1. Moss suffered a hamstring injury in the loss to Pittsburgh, but luckily the Redskins bye week followed. Moss didn't miss a game, although he wasn't his normal explosive self in Week 11 vs. the Cowboys.

Moss only scored once in the last six games of the season, mostly due to an unsure Campbell and banged up Clinton Portis keeping the offense in neutral, but Moss was still able to average five catches for 57 yards in the contests, very solid and consistent production for PPR leagues.

Last year Moss proved that he can play through injuries after two seasons marred by injuries that caused him to miss time and limited him when he did play. Moss also proved that he can command the respect of opposing defenses, and produce like an elite receiver when his QB is playing well. He also proved that he can be a steady WR3 in PPR leagues even when the offense is stalled out, even without a credible #2 playing on the opposite side.

If Campbell gets better in year two under Zorn, or one of Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly develop into a solid #2, or the addition of Albert Haynesworth on the defensive side allows the Redskins to control more games, Moss could be elite again, for more than just six games in the first half of the season, and even if none of those things happen, Moss will still produce well enough to justify his modest ADP.

Downside - by Will Grant

Saying that you have the #1 fantasy WR from the Washington Redskins sounds impressive. Until you realize that you're talking about backup quality fantasy stats in most leagues. Moss was the top WR for the Redskins last season with just over 1000 yards receiving and six TDs. That's good enough for just #17 on the fantasy WR charts last year. Good but not great.

This year, Moss will face stiff competition from a pair of young, promising WRs. Devin Thomas had just 15 receptions last season, but the second round rookie is looking to make a bigger impact for the Redskins in 2009. Malcolm Kelly was the other second round WR last season and his stats were equally unimpressive: just three receptions for 18 yards. The Redskins has high hopes for both of these young men, and you can expect that they will be more involved in the offense this year. As both of their numbers increase, Moss's production will certainly suffer.

Let's not forget the other pass-catching options in Washington. Chris Cooley is a top rated fantasy TE. He catches 60+ balls a season and usually reaches the end zone six to eight times. He was down a bit last season, but expect him to rebound to his more consistent self. Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts also catch well out of the backfield. These guys usually combine for another 50-60 receptions a season.

As a team, the Redskins are only going to throw for 3200 yards and 20 TDs this season. That's the offense that they have installed. There are no major changes at any of the offensive fantasy positions. That means any increase in one person's production results in someone else losing out. Moss was the top receiver on the team last year. As the two rookie wide-outs improve this year, and Cooley tries to rebound from his downer season, Moss is going to feel the pain. Expect 900+ yards receiving and 5-6 TDs this year. Good enough for a solid backup/spot starter but nothing beyond that.