Faceoff - RB Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos

Posted 8/26, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Colin Dowling

I'm not sure how anyone can think that Knowshon Moreno isn't going to have a big -- make that HUGE -- year. Yes, I know he's injured and he's missed a lot of camp. Nothing I can do about that. The injury time off is going to impact his early season production while he gets used to the timing of the NFL game and gets acclimated to his teammates and the Denver offense. Fair enough, point given.

But the only other real objection to Moreno is that we don't know what Josh McDaniels' offense is likely to look like. Conventional thinking is that since he came from a Patriots system that threw a lot and spread the ball around amongst multiple running backs then it stands to reason that he'll do the same thing in Denver. That logic certainly makes some sense. But let me ask you a rhetorical question: if you had Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Tom Brady, how much would you run the ball? If it were me, I'd be calling the same play ever down: "Randy, go deep. Wes, go out about 15 yards and cut across the middle. The rest of you make sure Tom doesn't get sacked." Isn't that about the size of it?

The idea that the Denver offense is going to mimic the New England offense that McDaniels had a hand in is absurd. If anything else, the Bill Belichick offensive system subscribes to a very simple adage: always put the ball in the hands of your best players. In New England, that was Brady and Moss. Do you really think that in Denver the best position players are Kyle Orton, Jabar Gaffney, and Correll Buckhalter?

Knowshon Moreno reminds many folks of Clinton Portis. And while I can certainly see those comparisons, he reminds me much more of two other elite former-SEC running backs: Carnell Williams and Shaun Alexander. Moreno has excellent vision, excellent balance, and most of all an understanding of when to follow the blocks to get 4 safe yards and when to make an extra cut in anticipation of a big gain. Moreno is excellent at breaking arm tackles and excellent at having a full head of steam by the time he reaches the line of scrimmage. And while his breakaway ability isn't likely to make anyone confuse him with Felix Jones, Moreno is capable of gobbling up lots of yards once he's broken in to the second level of defenders and is on his own to make something happen.

Moreno is being drafted right now as RB25 in the late 5th round. While that might seem a little lofty, let's have some perspective: Moreno's draft spot is after Marshawn Lynch (suspended and likely to miss more time than Moreno) and Reggie Bush (also injured). Moreno is one of the Broncos most skilled players. When healthy, none of the other running backs on the roster stands a chance at keeping him off the field. Kyle Orton will live and die by the short pass and an effective run game. The player that stands to benefit the most is Moreno. Don't let conjecture and speculation about what the Denver offense is going to look like convince you to pass on a player of Knowshon Moreno's caliber.

Downside - by Jeff Tefertiller

Knowshon Moreno was drafted early in the first round of April's NFL Draft to be the Broncos' starting running back for some time. He is expected to be the long-term primary runner in Denver for many seasons and the face of the franchise. This is not in doubt. But, it remains to be seen whether the Bronco coaching staff will turn over the reins early on and allow him to be a workhorse back. Moreno brings a good skill set to the Broncos. He is a very good receiver and a solid all-around back.

Moreno ran behind Buckhalter and Jordan at the mandatory June camp.

Rookie running back Knowshon Moreno has been biding his time behind two veterans through the first two days of the Broncos' mandatory minicamp.

One of the biggest obstacles standing in the way of Moreno having a great rookie season is the aging and deteriorating offensive line. This is one area that has been a concern on the horizon for some time. The Bronco running game has been led by the strong play of its veteran interior linemen in the zone blocking system. Yes, the drafting of Clady helped, but the success of the once-formidable Bronco running game will depend on the play of the center and two guards. Wiegmann and Hamilton are into their 30s. In fact, Pro Bowler Wiegmann (age 36) threatened to retire this past Spring before getting an extension.

Also threatening Moreno's success as a rookie, the Bronco defense should be at the bottom of the league once again in 2009. This will hinder Moreno's ability to get consistent carries every game. Denver is expected to either be in shootouts or playing from behind most games. Neither circumstance is conducive for consistency at the running back position.

Coach Josh McDaniels brings his pass-happy offense to Denver. This will not be a good thing for the rookie runner, and his fellow backs. The team is expected to pass a lot, especially with the poor defense. This could mean fewer rushing attempts, but more receptions. Moreno is a good receiver and will likely lead the backs in receptions. But, will it be enough to meet expectations? It is doubtful.

Many worry that Moreno being the starter in Denver is similar to seeing Sammy Morris start in New England. It may only mean that he will be on the field for the first series of the game. There is a huge fear that McDaniels will be rotating running backs as he calls plays. The Broncos have some able veteran runners just like McDaniels had with the Patriots. This could very well turn into a huge RBBC with Moreno not getting consistent carries in a dink-n-dunk passing game.

Add it all up and the biggest question mark for Moreno is whether he will get consistent carries, for a variety of reasons. He is a very risky play as a fantasy RB2. Will fantasy owners be able to start Moreno with confidence most weeks? This remains to be seen. Fantasy owners drafting a RB2 in the first four rounds cannot afford the risk. There is much uncertainty in drafting Moreno in the fourth round as a RB2.