Faceoff - WR Lance Moore, New Orleans Saints

Posted 8/12, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Mark Wimer

Lance Moore has slid down many draft boards entering 2009 because of a shoulder injury (torn labrum) incurred while lifting weights back in April. However, his recovery is going well according to all accounts, and he is currently expected to be back to 100% by the second or third week of training camp - just in time to get in a tune-up game with Drew Brees before the start of regular season. He should be back in the saddle as the Saints' number two wideout by the first week of regular season. When Brees is the starting QB throwing you the ball, being a starting wide receiver means a lot of balls should be coming your way.

In fact, last season Moore enjoyed 119 targets for 79 receptions, 928 yards receiving, and 10 TDs scored. He wasn't a starter until Week 3 of the season, folks - Moore set a blistering pace for the remaining 14 games, averaging a shade over 8 targets per game (8.1), with a low of five targets during Week 16 vs. Detroit's pathetic rush defense. He's entering the fourth season of his career and will be only 26 years old when the season starts - Moore is in the prime of his NFL career right now, folks.

Marques Colston is healthy and motivated entering 2009, and so is Jeremy Shockey according to all reports - opposing teams won't be able to double-cover Moore very often with Colston, Shockey and Reggie Bush all attacking the passing lanes (don't forget burner Devery Henderson streaking down the field in three-WR sets as well). Moore should be able to find plenty of room to operate in the mid-range area of the field where he made his mark last season (11.7 yards per reception, on average). Drew Brees has attempted a minimum of 635 passes during the last two years, with over 400 completions in that time span - there are plenty of balls to go around between Colston, Shockey, Moore, Bush and Henderson, folks.

Lance Moore has a great shot at over 80 receptions during 2009, and should crack the 1,000 yards-receiving barrier as well. He's an outstanding value at his current ADP of WR #30 (as of late July) - Moore should easily land among the top 20 WRs in the NFL this season.

Downside - by Andy Hicks

There are two ways to look at the prospects for Lance Moore this season.

First of all the view that he'll continue to be a starting receiver for one of the most potent offenses in the league or the 2nd point of view is that he'll struggle to go close to last years performance for several significant reasons. I'm clearly in the 2nd camp.

While Drew Brees posted one of the best fantasy seasons ever for a quarterback last season he did so with Marques Colston, Reggie Bush and Jeremy Shockey missing several games and playing injured in others. The prime beneficiary of this was Lance Moore. He recorded more targets than any other receiver on the Saints roster, by a significant margin, but the reason he ended up being a borderline WR1 was the 10 touchdowns he recorded last season. For starters expecting Moore to register anywhere near the number of targets or touchdowns recorded in 2008 is not realistic.

The Saints also have considerable depth at the receiver position and with numerous solid receiving options, it will be difficult for Moore to establish any kind of consistent performance. Devery Henderson is a consistent deep threat and Robert Meachem is finally displaying some of the talent that attracted New Orleans to draft him in the 1st round 2 years ago. With multiple excellent receivers at running back and tight end as well, Moore will have to prove himself all over again and until he does should not be considered as a fantasy starter.

Apart from the obvious situation of Marques Colston returning to his No.1 role, the biggest issue facing Lance Moore is his injured shoulder. A nasty torn labrum and dislocation following a weight lifting injury in the off season places a significant doubt on Moore being ready for the start of the season. Latest reports have him being held out of contact drills until well into the preseason and one has to wonder if the Saints are being cautious or if his injury isn't ready to be tested. Until we see him go over the middle and take a few hits, I would be leery of drafting him at his current draft price.

Moore will currently cost you around a 7th round pick, depending on your league, but the injury to his shoulder was extremely severe and the Saints are likely to spread the ball out to anyone not named Colston or Bush. Drafting Moore comes with a higher risk factor than several other receivers that will be available at the same time. If you believe he'll be fully fit, that his influence on the Saints will be as prominent as in 2008 and he will record a significant number of touchdowns again then he would be worth that risk. Others would either hope to see him slide in drafts or just let someone else grab him altogether.