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Faceoff - RB Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders
Posted 8/3, exclusive to Footballguys.com
Upside - by David Dodds
Oh how quickly people forget once a player gets dinged up. This player has major league talent and was the top rookie running back drafted in 2008 for a reason. He started his career off with a bang gaining an impressive 164 yards on just 21 carries in week 2 against the Chiefs. But in this game, he damaged his toe and the injury would plague him all season long.The Raiders were forced to use a RBBC approach at running back because of McFadden's turf toe condition. Justin Fargas, Michael Bush and McFadden spent the year splitting carries. All told, the Raiders' running backs accounted for 2,389 rushing/receiving yards in 2008. In 2007 the team amassed 2,394 rushing and receiving yards. Oakland's offensive line is an above average unit and excels at run blocking. If the last two years are our guide, we know someone is likely to have a lot of success running behind this improving offensive line.
So when I hear about McFadden turning heads in camp this offseason, it's hard not to get a little excited about his chances. He came into the league highly regarded as the fourth overall pick in 2008, turned heads in the NFL in his second game as a pro only to have turf toe kill his season. At RB21 (45th overall), he represent HUGE upside. Let others in your league chase last year's stats. Grab this undervalued gem while his stock is at his lowest. It will not be there much longer.
Downside - by Colin Dowling
Ah, the good old days. Not more than a year ago, Fantasy Magazines and message boards were abuzz with football fans prognosticating that Darren McFadden was the second coming of Adrian Peterson. And why not? His talents in college were amazing; direct snap, hand-off, pitch, whatever....McFadden was a touchdown waiting to happen.Unfortunately, as is the case with Reggie Bush, McFadden (and his fans) ran in to something unexpected: really fast NFL linebackers. The truth is that for all of his bobbing and weaving and carving up of SEC defenses, McFadden's main advantage -- his quickness -- simply isn't enough against the best linebackers and defensive ends on the planet.
I'm not ready to call McFadden a bust -- the Raiders awful line and overall offense contributed greatly to his less then stellar rookie season -- but there are certain qualities and attributes that have proven over the years to be essential for top-tier backs. Without exception, tall running backs need to have between-the-tackles power. Think Eddie George, Eric Dickerson, and the aforementioned Peterson. Being tall like McFadden and not having power hasn't exactly been a recipe for success in the NFL.
So what will it take for D-Mac to be even an average NFL rusher? For starters, he'll need to learn to produce when running up the middle. Ninety percent of all rushes end up somewhere between a three-yard loss and a five-yard gain. While McFadden's yards-per-attempt as a rookie was decent (4.4), that number is a little misleading. In his last six games as a rookie he averaged less than four yards per carry. For a player with his speed and open field ability, that isn't going to cut it. Can McFadden produce consistently in the 3 to 5 yards per carry range when given the ball off tackle? It's too soon to tell but most signs point to "no." Toss in that Michael Bush and even Justin Fargas have shown greater every-down ability and McFadden may not ever see the high number of carries necessary to be a top-tier rusher.
All of that aside, the most troubling thing about McFadden for the 2009 season rests in his Average Draft Position. At present, he is being selected 43rd overall as the 21st running back off the board. In essence, owners are betting that his physical talents somehow turn in to PRODUCTIVE NFL talents. And while it's possible they will, I wouldn't recommend that as a gamble worth taking with more proven players like Larry Johnson and Willie Parker (not to mention upside guys like Knowshon Moreno and Derrick Ward) still on the board.