Faceoff - ILB Jerod Mayo, New England Patriots

Posted 7/15, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Sigmund Bloom

For a long time, we've been used to writing on the New England inside linebacker position as a fantasy wasteland. Not since 2004 had a Patriot ILB been worth plugging into your lineup, even as a stopgap for injuries and bye weeks. Even when Tedy Bruschi was that guy back in 2003 and 2004, it was on his knack for big plays, not the tackle potential presented by the position. Bruschi had an average of 3.5 sacks, three interceptions, and 2.5 forced fumbles over those seasons, but couldn't top 80 solo tackles. His numbers were pumped up a little by generous awarding of assists - both seasons in the mid- to high-40s - but it seemed clear that no LB was ever going approach 100 solos in that position. That was, until Jerod Mayo's rookie year.

The position of ILB in the Patriots defense is complex enough that even hobbled vets like Bruschi and Junior Seau were better choices that a youngster with fresh legs over the last few seasons. When the Patriots returned to the top half of the first round due to a brilliant trade of an end-of-the-round in 2007 to the 49ers for their 2008 first (the 49ers had to have Joe Staley, who has been successful), their coveting of Mayo was one of the worst-kept secrets in the draft. They swapped picks from 7 to 10 with New Orleans, only dropping a few spots to ensure that they would land Mayo. No one wanted to pencil him into the starting lineup too quickly, but come Week 1, there he was.

Mayo came out of the gate very active, with at least six solos in five of his first six games, putting him on pace for a shade under 100 solos, well ahead of Bruschi's high of 79 solos. Mayo settled into a nice groove and did indeed hit 100 solos to end the season. He was a consistent presence in the box score, only falling below nine fantasy points in FBG scoring three times over the course the year. Mayo was able to finish as the No. 17 overall fantasy LB, and without the benefit of any sacks or INTs, something that even old man Seau (3.5 sacks and three INTs) was able to rack up in the Patriots record-breaking season of 2007. With Mayo now being completely comfortable in his role and the return of Tom Brady, opposing offenses should again be forced to take more chances. This year, Mayo will get some big plays to go along with his 100 solos and join the elite fantasy LBs in the Top 10. Mayo is a great reminder to never assume permanent limitations on an IDP's stats in a defensive role until you see him play.

Downside - by David Baker

Let me preface this downside piece by saying I am not down on Mayo. On the contrary, I think the guy is a stud and he should have not only a fine career in the NFL but an excellent 2009 campaign too. It just happens that I'm not quite as high on him as some of my fellow FBG staffers. Mayo, the Patriot's 2008 first-round pick (and 10th overall) had a wonderful rookie season as he loaded up on tackles on the way to finishing the year with 100 solos and 28 assists. Included in these numbers was a Week 11 performance against the New York Jets where Mayo had 16 solos and 4 assists. He was the AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the year.

So why am I lower on Mayo that some others? Well, one concern for me is the 3-4 defensive scheme employed by the Patriots. While Mayo proved that the scheme didn't limit his tackle opportunities last year, there are no guarantees he tosses up another 100 solo tackles. After all, the Texans' DeMeco Ryans burst onto the scene in his rookie season with 126 solo tackles only to see his numbers dip the following two years, down to 99 solo in his second year and 86 last year. Does that make Ryans any less talented? Hardly. Ryans remains one of the very best in the league. It just means that even being a stud and playing the middle in a 4-3 defense does not guarantee anything. Patrick Willis saw his numbers go from 137 solos to 109 last year.

Another thing holding me back slightly from making Mayo a Top 10 LB is his lack of big plays. He had zero sacks, zero interceptions and only one forced fumble last year. While I lock in guys who make a lot of tackles, the lack of big plays prevents him from reaching the top of my list. Also, there have been some scouts who've indicated Mayo struggles a bit in pass protection and needs to improve his ability to read the offense.

I'm hard pressed to write a downside on Jerod Mayo because frankly there's a whole lot more to like than dislike about the guy. He's young, athletic, and seems a lock to be succeeding in the NFL for years to come. And at this time, it doesn't look like there are a lot of guys around him who will be stealing many tackles. But that doesn't mean he's a top five guy for me either. If he can step up with some big plays this year and maintain his tackles, watch out. I just feel a tad skeptical about both happening and I have him lowered however slightly in my ranking. Again, it's not like I'm down on the guy. I just don't see quite enough evidence in my book for him to topple into elite IDP status. At least not yet.