Faceoff - QB Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts

Posted 7/6, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Colin Dowling

If ever there was an example of the fickle nature of Fantasy Football owners, it is Peyton Manning relative to the upcoming season. Despite a number of ridiculous things working in his favor, Manning has been "demoted" to QB3 and can be had in the third round of most fantasy drafts. Never mind that Manning has averaged a Top 5 finish at the position in nine of the last 11 seasons. Never mind that he has missed only one snap in his entire NFL career. Manning's slow start last year has been deemed by the masses as reason enough to let him slide in to round three. Will people ever learn?

You, of course, are too smart for that. True, value can be found in later rounds at the quarterback position. But drafting Manning early means that your picks in the mid-rounds can be used to find high-upside running backs instead of trying to patch together a serviceable quarterback duo. And besides, all the research in the world isn't going to ensure that you hit on the right two quarterbacks in the later rounds. Manning is as close to a sure thing at the position as we've ever seen.

Aside from last year's slow start, Manning's detractors point to the loss of Marvin Harrison and a new coaching staff as a possible reason for an expected decline. Fair enough, except for the fact that the new coaching staff doesn't necessarily mean a new system; only a fool would think that Jim Caldwell and company are going to do something other then rely on Manning's ample talents to win games. As for the loss of Harrison, it's worth pointing out that for all of his Hall Of Fame production, Marvin Harrison has been a shadow of himself for some time.

Manning is going to need Reggie Wayne to rebound from a so-so 2008 season and he's going to need Anthony Gonzales to make the jump in to consistent playmaker. But those doubting Manning's ability and opportunity are in for a rude awakening as the 2009 season plays out. Manning's career averages for a season are more then 4,100 yards, 30 touchdowns, and a reasonable 15 interceptions. If he merely accomplishes that then your quarterback position is rock-solid all year. And in the very-possible event that he bests those numbers then you may have landed the top quarterback in third round of your draft. Good luck trying to draft (then manage) that kind of production out of a mid-round quarterback combo. Draft Manning. Start him for 16 of 17 weeks. Reap the rewards.

Downside - by Jeff Tefertiller

Peyton Manning is a stud quarterback, there is no doubt about it. The question is whether he is worth the draft pick required early in fantasy drafts. Manning has an ADP of QB3, player 25 overall. Does he offer you enough upside and security to take him in the late second or early third round of fantasy drafts? I say "NO!". Is your fantasy team better off with Manning or a player like Anquan Boldin or Marques Colston? With other quarterback options emerging last season, this is too high for Manning. Quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers offer the same type of upside at a much cheaper price. Both are drafted a full round later than Manning even though they finished as QB2 and QB3 respectively while Manning finished outside the Top 5 quarterbacks.

Manning is coming off of a 2008 season where he finished as QB6. He now is without the services of his favorite receiver for many years, Marvin Harrison, who was let go at the end of the season. The Colts have no viable option to replace the veteran wide receiver. Anthony Gonzalez has not shown to be capable of replacing Harrison as a play-maker or as a threat to opposing defenses. Indianapolis only has wideout Reggie Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark as weapons in the passing game. Not making matters any better, the Colts now have a new head coach and offensive coordinator. That much change is not good for anyone. With such a high pick needed to draft Manning, fantasy owners must ask themselves if they think he has a good chance to bounce back into the Top 3 passers given all of the changes in Indianapolis. This sure seems like a lot of risk given other very good options. Add in the fact that the Colts drafted Donald Brown to bolster the running game. Now, the team has two very good options at the running back position. The Colts could run the ball more and pass less going forward, especially with the new coaching changes.

Manning has remained injury-free throughout his long and illustrious career. He has missed a grand total of one snap (due to injury) in his 11-year career. The 33 year old is amazing with his pocket presence. He seems to throw for more than 4,000 yards and 27 touchdowns every year. All of the changes in Indianapolis (to the coaching staff, loss of Harrison, and drafting of Brown) have to make fantasy owners question whether he will do so again in 2009. Even those statistics do not guarantee that Manning will play up to his ADP. Peyton Manning is not worth the price in 2009.