Faceoff - QB Eli Manning, New York Giants

Posted 6/24, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Cecil Lammey

There are some who believe Eli Manning has almost no chance of matching his 2008 production this year. Last season Manning led his team to 12 wins, had a 60% completion rate for the first time in his career, and passed the 21-TD mark for the fourth consecutive time. At the top of that list has to be the drop in interceptions. Manning was very careful with the football cut his interception total in half, throwing only 10 INTs. But how is he going to repeat -- or improve -- those numbers without Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer?

It should be easy to replace Toomer, who quite frankly is not the same player he used to be. For the first time in the last seven years (when playing 15 or more games) Toomer was held under 100 targets on the season. Toomer finished the season with 89 targets, 38 receptions, 580 receiving yards, and only four TDs. Any one of the young WRs the Giants have now could surpass those numbers in 2009. Replacing Plaxico Burress will be more difficult, but not impossible. Burress only played in 10 games last season, and missed most of the second half of the season because he shot himself in the leg. Things weren't the greatest for Burress on the field in 2008 either. He had only one game with over 100 yards receiving and seemed to be a malcontent even though he signed a contract extension right before the season opener. He was even suspended by the team for their Week 5 contest versus Seattle. Because of his size and big play ability many are wondering who Manning will look to when he needs to make a play in 2009. Enter rookie WR Hakeem Nicks from North Carolina.

The Giants selected the talented WR with the 29th overall pick in the first round of the 2009 NFL Draft. In his final bowl game at North Carolina Nicks caught a pass -- in stride -- that he had to take behind his back to secure. Not only did he take a hit and hold on to the ball, he turned up field and gained around 20 yards on the play. Eli Manning will find that when he needs to make a big play he can always look to the former Tar Heel. Nicks' best attribute is his run after the catch ability, where he can take short slant routes to the house ala Jerry Rice. Nicks isn't as tall as Burress, but the Giants drafted Ramses Barden to be that red zone threat the offense needs when they're in scoring position.

Manning's current ADP is QB15, and that is just too low for a QB that has Top 5 fantasy potential (he finished in the Top 5 in 2005). He may take a little bit of time to gel with his new weapons, but the Giants defense should put them in great position to score points -- and rack up fantasy points for your team.

Downside - by David Yudkin

While Eli Manning had a decent season overall last year, his was a tale of two seasons. The first part of the year he had Plaxico Burress as his top receiving threat, and Manning feasted on porous defenses. He benefited by going up against softer passing defenses (STL, CIN, SEA, CLE, SF, and ARI). Manning averaged 219 passing yards, 1.6 TDs, and 0.6 INTs per game through November and led the G-Men to a league best 11-1 record.

But then things took a monumental turn for the worst. Plaxico Burress shot himself in the leg and got suspended for the remainder of the year, taking the Giants season down with him. Including New York's loss in the post-season, the Giants ended the year 1-4 with Manning averaging just 157 passing yards, 0.2 TDs, and 0.4 INTs per game from December 1st on. With Burress out of the picture, defenses were able to develop better schemes and greatly disrupted the Giants game plan from week to week. Over the first three quarters of the season, the Giants scored 29.3 ppg. Down the stretch, they fell to 17.2 ppg - almost a two touchdown difference.

As the Giants embark on their 2009 season, the void from Burress' departure still exists, as New York cut him but did not acquire or sign another top tier, proven receiver to replace him. The Giants invested a first round pick in WR Hakeem Hicks from North Carolina, but it will take time for him to get adjusted to life in the NFL.

The fact that the Giants had the top rushing offense in the NFL is another concern. Manning threw the ball 50 fewer times than he did in 2007 and almost 80 fewer times than 2005 (when he ranked as the No. 5 fantasy QB). Even with career bests in completion percentage, QB ranking, and yards per attempt, Manning could only muster a QB13 fantasy ranking.

The Giants will have to rush less and pass more, in addition to developing a WR1, for Manning to rank high enough to be considered a starting fantasy QB. And he would have to keep his passing efficiency on par with his career bests on top of it. He should be a decent fantasy QB2 and best served as roster depth or part of a QBBC approach with regard to fantasy roster management.