Faceoff - RB Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills

Posted 8/3, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jeff Tefertiller

Marshawn Lynch has gone through the offseason under the fantasy radar and underrated. He is a proven back who many are overlooking. In the offseason, Lynch has bulked up, adding ten pounds of muscle. Since he was never known for possessing blazing speed, the extra weight should aid in his physical running style and possibly avoiding injury. The big news in Buffalo is that the Terrell Owens circus has come to town. His presence has opened up running lanes wherever he has played. Dallas was able to run the ball effectively and allow Owens enough pass targets to be effective. The same should be true in Buffalo.

The headline this offseason for Lynch is that he should be suspended the first three games of the season. Missing the three games should not be a huge deal for fantasy owners. Lynch finished as RB12 in his rookie campaign while playing in only 13 games. Last season, he finished as RB15 in fifteen games. He can easily outplay his current ADP even while missing the first three weeks of the season. In addition, fantasy owners can adapt by starting another back the first few weeks of the season. Fred Jackson makes an ideal play late in drafts to pair with Lynch. Starting Jackson, or another back, early in the year offsets the downside of the suspension. Yes, fantasy owners must "waste" two roster spots on the Bills' running game, but the price makes it worthwhile. Lynch has an ADP (Average Draft Position) of RB19 off draft boards and player 38 overall. This means fantasy owners can draft a solid and proven RB2 in the fourth round. Lynch makes the perfect play for owners that take at least one receiver early in the draft. His ADP has the suspension already factored in. The combination of Lynch and Jackson (with an ADP of RB44 in round 12) allow an owner to cheaply draft a strong RB2.

Many are using the threat of Jackson and Dominic Rhodes stealing carries as a way to further downgrade Lynch. Lynch is the unquestioned starter. He will get his share of the team's carries. Lynch does not have to carry the ball a ton in order to be a great option as a fantasy RB2. Last season, he only carried the ball 250 times in fifteen games, but was still able to be a top notch fantasy RB2. A similar finish this season would make fantasy owners happy.

The ability to draft a very solid and able RB in the fourth round of fantasy drafts enables the owners to take chances with other picks. There are few proven Top 15 backs available in the fourth round or later. Drafting Marshawn Lynch in the fourth round and Fred Jackson later in drafts enables fantasy owners to have both the unquestioned starter each week, plus the handcuff. What more can you ask for at such a cheap price?

Downside - by Andy Hicks

Marshawn Lynch will not appear for the Buffalo Bills until October. Taking this guy to be your starter and then having to draft an early season replacement is an easy way to mess up your fantasy squad. Added to that, he has the established veteran Dominic Rhodes joining Buffalo in the off season and a productive player like Fred Jackson crying out for more playing time. Throw in the addition of Terrell Owens to strengthen the passing game and it'll be very difficult for Lynch to come anywhere near his current ADP. Did I mention character concerns? No? Well throw that in too.

It's kind of obvious to state the character concerns when discussing the risks surrounding Lynch, but when you have as many criminal convictions as years in the NFL any further off field issues are going to result in a heavy ban. Strike 3 could be a big problem and your high draft pick then becomes a wasted pick. Character isn't everything, but it's kind of important to have players available to your squad if you want to win. Getting quality starting running backs in a competitive fantasy draft is difficult at the best of times, but when you roll the dice on a guy who'll miss the first three games then your odds of succeeding will be reduced. Not only is Lynch opening the door for someone to take his spot, he'll lack competitive action heading into Week 4. Its one thing to lose a guy if he gets injured, but to waste a roster space for three weeks on a guy whose own stupidity results in a suspension is a gamble too far.

As Lynch won't be the opening day starter, let's examine who will. In limited action, Fred Jackson has demonstrated the ability to start for the Bills. He averages a half a yard per carry more than Lynch running the ball and a yard more per catch in the passing game. Jackson has won over the coaching staff, not only earning a contract extension, but being promised a larger role in the offense this season. Dominic Rhodes has been a consistent and reliable player, primarily for the Colts and will be steadying influence on the running game with Lynch's early season absence. If the Jackson/Rhodes combo works well then Lynch isn't exactly going to be a 20-carry-a-game player immediately upon his return.

If anyone thinks that the Bills will run the ball more with the addition of Terrell Owens then they need to reconsider. For a side that was Bottom 10 passing the ball and in the top half running it last season, adding one of the best receivers in the modern game is bound to shift the offensive dynamics. Less carries for the backs will make Lynch even riskier. Lynch could be a reasonable pick if he fell to the fifth round and beyond, but a third or fourth round pick is a price too high to pay.