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Faceoff - RB Jamal Lewis, Cleveland Browns
Posted 8/26, exclusive to Footballguys.com
Upside - by Will Grant
It's hard to get excited about anyone coming out of Cleveland this season. However, if you're going to spend a draft pick on anyone from the Browns, it may as well be Jamal Lewis. No matter who starts at QB, the Browns are going to need a solid running game to support their passing attack. Lewis is going to be the #1 back from Cleveland this season and the other backs shouldn't be close.As far as competition goes, Lewis has next to none. His backup is fourth year man Jerome Harrison. However, Harrison is too small to carry the load 25 times a game. He's more of a third-down, change of pace guy. Rookie James Davis was a great prospect in 2007, but ended up falling all the way to the sixth round this year. Davis hasn't had a great camp and was nonexistent in their first pre-season game. Noah Herron is a journeyman who is strictly an insurance policy against injury. Finally, Lawrence Vickers might vulture a TD or two but won't take up many carries outside of the red zone as a fullback in an offense that will run only around 350 times all season.
Last season, Lewis posted his lowest totals for a full 16 game season with less than 1,200 total yards from scrimmage and only four TDS. That's probably more than he'll post this season though, so be careful how high of a premium you pay for him. The Browns as a whole will be weaker on offense this season -- if only due to their question marks at QB and their lack of experienced pass catchers. Lewis will lead the team, but he'll be pretty far down the food chain as fantasy RBS go. Expect about 1,000 total yards from scrimmage and maybe four or five TDS. Not anything to get excited about per se, but certainly better than many of the RBBC players that will be taken around the same point in the draft.
Downside - by Sigmund Bloom
I'm all for trying to catch players on the bounce back. It's one of the best ways to find values, especially in the mid-rounds of your draft. Jamal Lewis is being proposed by some as a great bounce-back candidate to snag around the seventh or eighth round. The problem with this theory is that to forecast a bounce back year, you need to determine the factors that led to the player having such a down year, and make a compelling argument that they will change this season. It's impossible to say that about Lewis.Lewis never really got out of neutral last year because of his supporting cast and surrounding situation. Derek Anderson regressed after he struggled against a tough early schedule. This year, he'll be battling Brady Quinn to start - neither player has done anything to distinguish themselves into OTAs. You certainly can't expect the QB play to improve this year. Braylon Edwards had a bad case of the dropsies last year, and Kellen Winslow decided to have an open revolt against the team in the media. Edwards remains, but Winslow is gone, and the Browns are breaking in two rookie wide receivers to help pick up the slack. Clearly, the passing game is not going to help take any heat off of Lewis. The defense was poor last year, causing the team to fall behind and have to abandon the running game. The Browns made no key free agent pickups to bolster the unit. It's looking like it will be another long season in Cleveland, which means Lewis will have few opportunities to get in a groove and rush for 100 yards.
Sometime the bounce back argument centers around the changed circumstances of the player himself. After all, Lewis looked about as good as a running back can look while putting up paltry stats last year. The problem with that angle is that things only changed for the worse for Lewis. He had his third offseason ankle surgery. Jerome Harrison and rookie James Davis impressed the new staff in his absence. Lewis also turns 30 before the season starts.
With the Browns headed for another finish in the cellar of the division and Lewis headed to the RB retirement home, it's hard to picture many scenarios where he could even approach the value he had in 2007. Let someone else take the leap of faith that this aging former stud will return to form even though all the signs are pointing in the wrong direction.