Faceoff - RB Julius Jones, Seattle Seahawks

Posted 6/24, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Mike Brown

At some point in your draft, you are likely to be confronted with a decision to make regarding Julius Jones. He'll be sitting there about two or three rounds later than you expected him to be, and you'll play the internal question over and over, wondering how long you can leave a starting halfback on the board. He's going as the RB38 on average. There are only 32 starting backs in the league, which means he's being drafted in the neighborhood of backups with upside. Sure, a few of those other guys could produce if the starter were to get hurt. But Jones already has a clear path to the starting gig -- it's his right now!

In truth, Jones has mostly been a disappointment over his career. But so was his brother Thomas Jones. And so was Cedric Benson. And Michael Pittman. Just because a player hasn't lived up to his potential by a certain period in his career doesn't mean he can't ever hold value. All of the above players were highly-regarded coming into the league, suffered through some very lean years, and still managed to turn out to be very fantasy relevant in the right situations.

One of the biggest deterrents to Jones' success has been the presence of other players around him. He's never really gotten a chance to roll for 300+ carries in a season and show what he's capable of. Last year, it was Maurice Morris that he had to share carries with. Now, Morris is in Detroit. And Seattle doesn't have any other viable rushers on the roster to eat into Jones' touches. Some would suggest that T.J. Duckett is that guy, but with just 62 rushes a year ago it is obvious that Duckett is going to fill the short yardage role and nothing more. Jones' 4.4 yards per carry a year ago represents the best figure of his career to date, and Seattle didn't make a move to add anyone else of note after the departure of Morris. Sounds like some people in Seattle believe in him at least.

Jones certainly has the talent to produce in the NFL, and he did so when there was talent around him in Dallas. The Seahawks will look to make a strong move back towards the top of the NFC West this season. The addition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh finally gives Seattle a legitimate weapon in the passing game, something they've lacked for years. A full return to health for Matt Hasselbeck would likewise open things up on the ground for Jones. And considering the level of competition from the defenses out west, Jones could feast on his divisional opponents six times this season. Two of his best games of 2008 came in back-to-back weeks against San Francisco and St. Louis in Week 2 and Week 3 (267 yards, two touchdowns). The potential for big games is certainly there, and it'll cost you next to nothing to get them.

Downside - by Sigmund Bloom

How many times is Julius Jones going to burn fantasy owners before they swear him off and let him become someone else's problem? Even a cursory look at his recent history should convince you that the answer is zero.

Yes, Jones enters the season as the starter by default, but he did last year, and we all remember how that turned out. After a hot start that included 100+ yard games in a shootout vs. San Francisco and blowout over St. Louis, Jones failed to touch the ball more than 20 times in a game again, and failed to score again in the remaining thirteen games of the season. Jones never got back in a groove because he got dinged up more than once during a game, he was generally ineffective, and eventually he was benched due to fumbling concerns.

While Jones was struggling, T.J. Duckett collected five of his team leading eight touchdown runs. Duckett is back this year, and he's reunited with the head coach and offensive coordinator that oversaw his 2004 effort, when he averaged 4.9 yards per carry. When Duckett was acquired last year, many speculated that head-coach-in-waiting Jim Mora Jr. was behind the move. Duckett should get enough work to keep Jones from getting a feature back workload, even if Jones does run well, stay healthy, and hold on to the ball.

Jones has once again made excuses for his lack of production in the offseason. In Dallas, it was because Bill Parcells made him run like a robot instead of "using his instincts". In Seattle, it was the scheme. Jones claims that the zone blocking scheme installed this year will fit "my style of running a little bit better" because it's "downhill and off to the races". When the coaches want Jones to be more disciplined, he wants to use his instincts and dance near the line of scrimmage. When the coaches want Jones to create more on his own, he prefers a one-cut-and-go system. Seems like Jones if willing to blame anyone but himself for his struggles.

Granted, Jones recent rocky seasons have been priced into his very modest ADP of RB38 and 101 overall. Still, when the time comes to get your third or fourth RB in eighth or ninth round, wouldn't you rather take someone like Ray Rice or Rashard Mendenhall, who at least haven't proven that they are mediocre NFL running backs year after year?