Faceoff - RB Larry Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals

Posted 7/6, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Mark Wimer

Larry Johnson has not seen extremely heavy action during the last two seasons, which may turn out to be a boost to his 2009 prospects. Johnson needed some time to recover from his extraordinary 1750+ rushing yards performances of the '05 and '06 seasons (416 carries during the latter effort). He seems to have his head screwed on straight now (part of the reason he fell out of favor with the Herm Edwards / Carl Peterson regime was due to off-field incidents and clashes with coaches), and he won't be 30 until November. Head coach Todd Haley has challenged Johnson to earn playing time and so far, Johnson has been a model citizen / coachable player for the new regime according to all accounts. Coach Haley commented on Johnson's on-field performance in late May, saying "He made some runs in the last practice I thought were pretty special. Those flashed at me. If Larry continues to work and stay on point and do the things asked of him, he'll definitely have a chance to help us."

During limited action (12 games last season) Johnson posted an excellent 4.5 yards-per-carry average (193/874/5 rushing) and chipped in a few catches (12/74/0) - a big improvement over his poor 2007 showing (8 games, 158/559/3 rushing for a 3.5 YPC average). It looks like Johnson still has the ability to post plenty of solid performances for his fantasy owners.

None of the players behind Johnson at RB are a significant threat to his position as lead back (Jamaal Charles is more suited as a third-down back/change of pace option at this level, and Kolby Smith is strictly back-up material, and Smith is still hobbled by a lingering knee injury as of early June minicamps) - Johnson should regain his role as lead back/starter in this new offense, as long as he stays out of trouble off the field. He probably won't log 400 carries again in coach Haley's offense, but I think he'll get plenty of work (20+ carries a game, 2-3 receptions per game) and be on the cusp of first round production, making him an excellent second- or third-RB for fantasy owners (he should out-produce those roster slots, in my opinion).

Don't let the poor showings of the Herm Edwards years scare you away from Larry Johnson this year. He'll be overlooked by a lot of owners, and that should mean you can draft him at a discounted position or price.

Downside - by Sigmund Bloom

Larry Johnson has been spending the offseason endearing himself to new coach Todd Haley. He's been largely successful - avoiding a rumored release before the draft, garnering first team snaps in practice, and drawing praise from Haley and beat writers. Johnson has a chance to have some big games this season if Matt Cassel is the real deal outside of a Josh McDaniels offense system, and Todd Haley is the real deal outside of an offense that features a likely hall of fame QB and the best WR tandem in the game. Between Johnson being on his best behavior and his continued name value, he's surely going to go too high in your draft, and you'd be wise to avoid the headache that he has become for the Chiefs and his fantasy owners alike.

Haley is likely to install a shotgun formation pass-heavy offense like the one he put together in Arizona, and the one Cassel ran in New England. Not only does that limit the possibilities of grind-it-out drives where Johnson pounds the defense into submission, but it also increases the need for backs who can catch passes out of the backfield, pass block, and really understand the offense. Johnson excels in none of those areas, and he's likely to be on the bench for more plays than he would like because of it. This creates the double whammy of making Johnson's production unpredictable from week to week, and making him unhappy and likely to cause trouble when he gets dissatisfied with his decreased and sporadic workload.

This will not come as a revelation if you owned Johnson last year. He started slow, but came on to post solid numbers in a blowout loss to Atlanta in Week 3, and then destroyed the Broncos "defense" in Week 4. He's back, right? After a rousing seven-carry, two-yard performance in Week 5 vs. Carolina, Johnson racked up his fourth assault accusation, got suspended for being late to team meetings, and got an NFL suspension after he got formally charged with assault. He didn't return to the lineup until Week 11, and Johnson got 12 carries or less in four of the remaining seven games. He only mustered 36 yards on 11 carries in the anxiously awaited (by his fantasy owners at least) rematch with the Broncos during the fantasy playoffs.

Drafting Larry Johnson is going to be like playing Russian roulette. Some weeks you'll hear the click and escape with 80 yards and a TD, but the chamber will be loaded too often, killing your week and any trade value Johnson may have in the process.