Faceoff - WR Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions

Posted 8/28, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Will Grant

It's hard to find a guy who more pressure on him in Detroit than Matt Stafford. The entire city has placed the weight of their franchise on his shoulders. After an 0-16 season, they are desperate for anything positive to focus on. Fortunately, the rookie QB has Calvin 'Megatron' Johnson to help him out.

Last season, Johnson lived up to all of the hype that surrounded his rookie season. Despite dismal offensive performance after another from the team as a whole, Johnson was absolutely unstoppable at times. Seven games with 90+ receiving yards, ten games with at least one receiving TD and seven games where he was targeted more than 10 times, including three where he was thrown to 16 times or more.

As a fantasy WR, they don't come much more consistent than Johnson. Last year he had 11 games with more than 10 fantasy points, and at least two receptions in every game. Even the best NFL receivers get shut out from time to time, yet on an offense with no support at all, Johnson managed to put up numbers every week.

This year the Lions will have to suffer a bit with a rookie QB at the helm. Matt Stafford is going to have some bad games. But after last season's QB performance, how bad can it really be? On a team that finished 0-16, Johnson was the #3 fantasy WR. If the offense is even marginally better, Johnson will be back in the top five again.

The biggest challenge for Johnson this year will be his ability to lead a receiving corps that is replete with question marks. Former Cardinal and 49er Bryant Johnson will start opposite Calvin having never put up more than backup quality fantasy numbers despite being the 17th overall pick in 2003. Journeyman Dennis Northcutt will chip in a bit and rookie TE Brandon Pettigrew will need some time to catch on. There will be some definite growing pains. However, don't let that discourage you from taking Calvin as your #1 WR. He is light years ahead of many of the other guys in the league, and should easily reach last year's top five fantasy numbers again this year.

Downside - by David Yudkin

We all know Calvin Johnson is a stud receiver, but it will take a hefty investment come draft day to acquire him and he may not be worth it. Yes, Johnson ranked as the third best fantasy receiver last year and had to endure the three-headed hydra of Jon Kitna, Dan Orlovsky, and Daunte Culpepper and still put up great numbers. But that was last year. Some FBG staff have Johnson ranked as high as second THIS YEAR, which is way too high given his environment and the other receivers vying atop the wide receiver food chain.

Heading into the 2009 season, Megatron most likely will start the year with Daunte Culpepper at the helm. The last time Culpepper passed for more than two touchdowns was four years ago, and he had only three games with 250 yards passing since then.

Last season, Johnson averaged 11 fantasy points per game with Culpepper and nearly 14 points per game with the other Detroit quarterbacks. While still very good, a 16-game season at 11 ppg would total 176 points (which would have ranked eighth last year). For Johnson's sake, that could be the good news, as his other option could be much worse for his fantasy outlook.

Things could potentially get a lot murkier for Johnson, as the Lions other option at QB this year is rookie Matthew Stafford. Historically, rookies have not been great in terms of producing top fantasy numbers for elite receivers. Roddy White had a very strong year with Matt Ryan in Atlanta last year (ranking sixth). Only one other time did I discover a wide receiver that ranked in the Top 10 playing with a rookie QB that played in 12 games or more (Isaac Bruce ranked eighth in 1996 with Tony Banks at QB). But no WR has ranked in the Top 5 playing with predominantly a rookie QB (at least as far as I could tell). That's a very bad omen for Johnson.

There are other concerns as well. Detroit may stumble into a win or two this season. Their defense may not be quite as porous. Kevin Smith may get a lot more work running the football, thus reducing the number of passing attempts. Defense may adjust and come up with a way to better contain Johnson. Another receiving option could emerge in Detroit (no other receiver or tight end had more than 35 receptions last season).

Bottom line - the Lions' quarterback season should hinder Johnson's fantasy production this year, and those thinking they got a great bargain in the Top 10 to 15 picks overall this year may very well end up licking their wounds by the end of the season.