Faceoff - WR Andre Johnson, Houston Texans

Posted 7/7, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by David Yudkin

Some people have Andre Johnson ranked outside the Top 5 receivers this year, and the main question to pose is "Why?" He has emerged as one of the most consistent receivers in the game, both for real and fantasy football, and has accrued some top flight fantasy production in the past few years.

Since 2006, Johnson has averaged 6.8 receptions, 87.2 receiving yards, and 0.5 touchdowns per game. That works out to 108.5 receptions, 1,394 receiving yards, 8.2 touchdowns, and 188.6 fantasy points over a 16-game season. He had 16 games of 100+ receiving yards out of 41 games played in that timeframe (compared to 14 for Randy Moss and 13 for Larry Fitzgerald).

In those years, 188.6 fantasy points would have been good enough to rank third, seventh, and fourth respectively. Even missing seven games, Johnson ranked sixth in total fantasy points by a wide receiver from 2006-2008. With Johnson playing on the Texans, maybe some people have not had much chance to see him play. Some folks still think he needs to do it for longer to prove that he's for real.

Bear in mind that Johnson was dinged in 2007 and over the past few years has had a rotation of David Carr, Sage Rosenfels, and Matt Schaub at quarterback. Johnson has actually done even better with Schaub at the helm, averaging 6.9 receptions, 104.2 receiving yards, and 0.7 touchdowns. Projected over a full season, that would be a tidy 110-catch, 1,667-yard, and 11-TD campaign, which, barring another year like 1995, would assuredly rank Johnson among the Top 3 fantasy receivers.

The primary reason someone might consider projecting Johnson out of the Top 5 receivers would be due to an injury to either Johnson or Schaub. Johnson had two injuries over his career that kept him out of the lineup, but he's managed to play in 90% of the games he was eligible to play in.

Add it all up, and there's plenty of reasons to select Andre Johnson early in fantasy drafts this year, as he has a very high probability of ranking in the Top 5 fantasy wide receivers in 2009 (and beyond).

Downside - by Colin Dowling

Having to write the "low" side of an Andre Johnson face-off is quite a challenge. Johnson is a great receiver. He's easily one of the best in the league and seems to be getting better and better each year. He has size, speed, hands, and agility. He's the clear go-to option for the Houston Texans and gets lots and lots of opportunities to make things happen. The man had 115 receptions and 1575 yards last season. Totaling 1575 yards is nearly 100 yards per game. That is ridiculous.

But here's the problem with Andre Johnson's fantasy prospects: he just doesn't catch many touchdowns. In fact, his touchdown numbers are downright depressing compared to his receptions and yardage numbers. Johnson has 33 touchdowns in 86 games. He averages a touchdown about every 15 receptions. For a player of Andre Johnson's talent, that is embarrassing. For comparison's sake, Larry Fitzgerald has 46 touchdowns in 76 career games and averages a touchdown every nine receptions. Plaxico Burress averages nine receptions per touchdown as well. Chad Johnson and Steve Smith only need 12 receptions per touchdown. In Calvin Johnson's first two years he's needed fewer than eight receptions per touchdown.

So why in the world is a player with the undeniable talents of Andre Johnson catching touchdown passes at the same rate as Derrick Mason? Well, the team's passing offense has been fairly poor in recent years. In the last three seasons, the Texans have had a total of 59 passing touchdowns, which is a fairly low number. But isn't this a bit of a "chicken or the egg" problem? If Johnson were better at finding the end zone, perhaps the snapshot of the team's offense would look a lot better.

The reality is that selecting Andre Johnson as your top receiver is a great move. He's clearly going to catch a lot of balls, and with a little luck, he could score plenty of touchdowns. But history has shown that touchdowns aren't his forte like they are with the other top receivers in the NFL. Its sad to say but a six-catch, 80-yard, zero-touchdown game from Johnson produces the same number of fantasy points as a four-catch, 40-yard, one-touchdown game from someone like Chris Chambers. Don't you want a player you've selected in the first two rounds be reliably better then that?