Faceoff - WR Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers

Posted 8/3, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jeff Tefertiller

Greg Jennings emerged as a legitimate fantasy WR1 option last season. He has the speed to get deep and is strong after the catch. Jennings has taken over the role of primary receiver in Green Bay from Donald Driver. He has earned the trust of quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The development of Rodgers in his first season as a starter helped Jennings have such a banner season. Jennings finished as the fourth ranked receiver to the surprise of many. Even in 2007, with Brett Favre at quarterback, he finished as the WR12 while missing three games. The future looks bright for Jennings.

Jennings has an ADP (Average Draft Position) of WR6 and player 22 overall. Considering his finish last season, Jennings has a good chance to best his ADP expectations once again. Injury to Rodgers or himself is the only thing standing in his way. It is unusual for a player's ADP to be lower than last year's finish with a young receiver whose situation stayed the same. Rodgers should further develop in his second season as a starter. His ceiling is very high. Fantasy owners should expect improvement from the Rodgers-to-Jennings hookup with another training camp to work together.

The situation is tailor-made for Jennings to succeed. He has a young, strong-armed passer who likes to throw down the field. The team lacks a strong running game, leaving more redzone opportunities for Jennings and his fellow receivers. Donald Driver is getting up there in age and this could be his last season in Green Bay. In addition, the presence of Driver and the two younger receivers, James Jones and Jordy Nelson, should keep opposing defenses from focusing too much on the productive young Jennings. Another thing working in Jennings' favor is that the Packer coaches feel more comfortable with Rodgers under center this season. They are going to give him more freedom in calling plays from the line of scrimmage. Rodgers looks to his play-making pass catcher often for the big play. Jennings led the Green Bay receivers with 140 targets in 2008. He had five or more targets in all but two contests in 2008. So, fantasy owners get a productive receiver who could actually improve, and sees a lower ADP than last year's finish? This is all very true.

As though there were not enough reasons to like Jennings' chances this season, the schedule makers were kind to the Packers. Green Bay will have several weeks where Jennings is capable of a monster game. Outside of the NFC North division, the Packers play some weak defenses from the NFC West and AFC North. Most of the NFC West teams are poor on defense. The NFC West teams (Seattle, St. Louis, Arizona, and San Francisco) all have had major changes in defensive personnel and with the coaching staff since this time last year. Plus, getting Cincinnati and Cleveland on the schedule is a nice perk. Add in a pair of games against the Lions and it is easy to see several appetizing games for Jennings and Rodgers. The Rodgers-to-Jennings combination is one that should improve in 2009.

Downside - by Jason Wood

I like to say that anyone skilled in debate should be able to convincingly argue for or against any position with equal fervor. But the reality is that some debates are going to be hard to win. Arguing the Low Side of Greg Jennings is an example of just that. Jennings is a beast and in the prime of his career. He's coming off an 80-catch, 1,292-yard, nine-TD season. He's in a pass happy offense with a young passer coming off a 4,038-yard passing season.

There's no reason Jennings shouldn't be a Top 10 fantasy receiver in every scoring format on draft day.

So what's the Low Side argument, you say? Here are some of the concerns one might have, if you were looking for a reason to be skeptical.

• He's no longer hungry -- Jennings was rewarded with a new contract in June, that pays him $16mm in guaranteed money and $27mm over the life of the contract. He's now got his big payday, will he be as motivated now that he's got the Wisconsin Chee$e?
• There are too many options competing for touches -- Donald Driver is still rock solid, James Jones and Jordy Nelson are emerging talents who probably would start on a number of NFL teams. With so many quality targets, will Aaron Rodgers fixate on Jennings as much as he needs to in order to produce Top 5 fantasy numbers?
• He drops a lot of passes -- Jennings dropped eight passes last year (10% of his catch total), which can be maddening for his QB, coaches and any fantasy owners that see their monster week fall apart because of his butter fingers.

So there you have it. If you're looking for a reason not to draft Greg Jennings I've given you three. Of course, I wouldn't follow my own advice on this one, so draft accordingly.