Faceoff - WR Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers

Posted 7/29, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Matt Waldman

The reasons others aren't as optimistic about Vincent Jackson's prospects for 2009 as I, have to do with an arrest, and perceptions the Chargers will run the ball more with LaDainian Tomlinson healthy. Although reasonable thoughts, I believe Jackson, who has been a standout in camp, continues to be a player on the ascent.

Although a suspicion of DUI charge is a concern -- especially with already one conviction -- Jackson's defense claims police improperly gathered evidence, which violates the Fourth Amendment. The case could drag out or get thrown out on this technicality. From strictly a fantasy viewpoint, a one- or two-game suspension shouldn't be a huge detriment to Jackson's productivity. Seven of the top 12 WRs in FPG in 2008 missed at least a game, including Jackson.

Tomlinson's injured toe and sub-4 yards per carry average was one of the reasons Jackson got the chance to perform as the 12th-ranked fantasy receiver in 2008. Norv Turner had to count on the passing game and Philip Rivers came through with over 4000 yards, 34 scores, and a 64 percent completion percentage. Rivers excelled despite Tomlinson and Pro Bowl TE Antonio Gates lacking their normal explosiveness due to toe injuries and Chris Chambers underperforming to expectations.

In fact, Rivers' only 1000-yard receiver last year was Jackson who had the highest yards per catch average (18.6) of any WR with at least 50 receptions (59). Generally, a player with a high YPC average and reasonably high touchdown count (7) with fewer than 70 receptions makes me nervous about their future prospects. It can raise questions about his consistency as a primary weapon for the offense.

However, I believe Jackson is player on the ascent whose performance will continue trending upward. His target count as gone from 56 to 80 to 101 in the past three seasons and his conversion percentage that hovered around 50 for the first of those two seasons actually increased to nearly 60 percent in 2008. I think it's reasonable to have confidence in a receiver when he converts nearly 60 percent of his targets with an YPC average that high. Many of my peers have ranked Bernard Berrian in the mid-twenties among receivers -- often higher than Jackson. Berrian averaged 20 YPC in '08 on 48 catches, but barely cracked 50 percent in target conversion.

I believe the difference for Jackson's upside is Philip Rivers. As I mentioned in my faceoff about Tomlinson, Norv Turner isn't going to restrict his QB just because his star RB is healthy. Turner promotes balance in his offensive attack, and Rivers is the best QB he's had in over a decade. The common denominator for all QBs with elite production is a WR as the primary beneficiary, not the RB or TE. These two positions are important cogs, but strong passing offenses need a consistent and productive vertical threat. For the Chargers it's clearly Jackson. Only Calvin Johnson has similar height, weight, speed or fluidity as a WR. Pretty good company, don't you think?

Downside - by Mark Wimer

Jackson was arrested in January '09 on suspicion of driving under the influence - while on probation for a former conviction for driving under the influence (five years probation for a 2006 drunken driving arrest and conviction in San Diego). Self control is obviously an issue here - buyer beware. Jackson's legal team received a big setback on June 11th when the judge in the case, Cynthia Bashant, refused to suppress evidence relating to his blood alcohol level, saying she was bound by California case law to allow it to be considered. Jackson's blood alcohol level at the time of his testing was 0.17, almost twice the legal limit in California. Jackson intends to appeal the ruling in Federal court - it is unclear when the case will be resolved. Let's just say there is a black cloud hanging over Jackson entering 2009.

Beyond Jackson's off-field woes, there is definitely a concern that he is more of a one-year wonder in fantasy terms, than he is a solid bet to repeat his 1,000+ yard receiving campaign. He posted 101 targets for 59/1098/7 receiving last year - but the team hasn't been in a rush to sign him to a long term deal (his contract expires at the end of the season). Prior to last year, Jackson had a high of 41/623/3 receiving on 80 targets during 2007. There are several capable receivers on this team (Antonio Gates, Chris Chambers, LaDainian Tomlinson, Malcolm Floyd, and Legedu Naanee). Jackson wasn't so dominant that he's clearly the team's #1 option in the passing game. In fact, I'd say he starts out at #3, behind Gates and Tomlinson.

The Chargers figure to hand the ball off to Tomlinson a lot (again) this year, and that may somewhat reduce the number of passes that Phillip Rivers puts up for grabs (Rivers had a career year last season with 312/478 for 4009 yards, 34 TDs and 11 interceptions - he is likely to regress back toward his previous two finishes this year (277/460 for 3152 yards, 21 TDs and 15 interceptions in 2007; 284/460 for 3388 yards, 22 TDs and 9 interceptions during 2006)). Also, QBs not named Drew Brees or Peyton Manning rarely repeat 4,000+ yard seasons...

Because of his outstanding legal issues and poor decision-making off the field, Jackson is not on my short list for drafting this season. Even if he had a clean slate off the field, there are plenty of reasons to not rely on him repeating as a top-flight fantasy football WR.