Faceoff - RB Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams

Posted 7/20, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jeff Tefertiller

Steven Jackson is underrated going into the 2009 season. Even in his disappointing campaigns the past couple of years, Jackson has averaged over 100 total yards and at least a score every other game. That is not a bad downside at all. His biggest issues the last two seasons have been staying healthy and running behind a subpar, aging offensive line. The line issues have been addressed. Declining veteran, Orlando Pace is now in Chicago and the Rams have rebuilt with younger players.

The Rams beefed up the running game with the signings of fullback Mike Karney from new Orleans and center Jason Brown from Baltimore. St Louis made Brown the highest paid center in the NFL. In addition, the Rams drafted tackle Jason Smith with the second overall pick in April's NFL Draft. This is good news for Jackson. Not only will the improved line play help open holes to run through, but it should help Marc Bulger stay off his back. Kyle Boller is not a threat to keep defenses honest.

The Rams have voiced their committment to the run, with Jackson as the focal point of the offense. St. Louis General Manager Billy Devaney even said, "There isn't any secret -- our best player on the team is Steven Jackson." And then added, "First and foremost, we're going to try to run the ball and try to establish ourselves as a strong running team." Offensive Coordinator Pat Shurmur would like the Rams to be a running team. The coaching staff is focused on running the ball with the best player on the team leading the way.

One thing working in the favor of Jackson is that there are no other back to steal carries. Also, the Rams are using Jackson all over the field. There have been early reports that the star running back is running routes with the wide receivers in an attempt to become a better receiver when he splits out wide. Offensive Coordinator Shurmur comes to St. Louis from the Philadelphia Eagles. He hopes to use Jackson in similar ways that Brian Westbrook was used the past few seasons. This is great news for fantasy owners. The Rams do not have many viable options in the passing game, so there is opportunity for Jackson to have a big season.

Jackson's health is the biggest worry for fantasy owners. He has played in all 16 games just once in his career and has missed four games each of the past two seasons. The Rams feed him the ball a lot when he is healthy. Jackson averaged approximately 24 touches per game over the last two seasons. This is after the monster 2006 season where he touched the ball a whopping 430 times, including 90 receptions on 111 pass targets. The 2006 season remains his upside. Jackson has the ability to carry the load. He did so in college at Oregon State and every season he has been in the NFL. The only issue is if he will miss time due to injury.

Downside - by Mark Wimer

Steven Jackson has been among the top-10 fantasy backs exactly once, and he's only played 16 games once during that five-year span. He's missed one-fourth of the season the past two years (only 12 games played). When he is on the field, Jackson is capable of some elite performances, but he also throws up a lot of disappointing results due to the lack of talent elsewhere on the team. He scored seven rushing TDs last year. However, two were punched in vs Atlanta in Week 17 (a worthless game in most leagues) and three were scored vs. Dallas during Week 7. Jackson owners had zeroes in the TD column for 12 of the 16 fantasy-season games. The Rams' front office did little to improve the OL during this year - goal-line struggles look likely for Jackson from where I sit.

It is easy for opposing defenses to key on Jackson because they don't have to respect the Rams' passing game.

Marc Bulger has been horrid the past two years (he tossed 251/440 for 2720 yards, 11 TDs and 13 interceptions last year over 15 games - during 2007 he was even worse with 221/378 for 2392 yards, 11 TDs and 15 interceptions over 12 contests). The preceding results were WITH Torry Holt on the team. This year, Bulger will do without Holt and throw to WRs Donnie Avery, Keenan Burton, Laurent Robinson, and TE Randy McMichael (coming off a broken lower right leg and torn tendon due to the break, which ended his 2008 campaign on September 28th). Of the receivers currently in the stable, Avery was the most productive during 2008 (53/674/3). I don't think the Rams' passing attack has opposing defensive coordinators shaking in their boots, folks. Kyle Boller is the current front runner to be backup QB - I don't foresee the Rams' fans screaming for Boller to take over for Bulger. However Bulger has been bad enough of late that the Rams might actually sink low enough to consider a switch to Boller if Bulger continues to struggle. Even if Boller steps into the lineup, the passing game won't be respected during 2009.

Jackson was 14th among fantasy backs during 2007 (237/1002/5 rushing and 38/271/1 receiving) and 13th during 2008 (253/1042/7 rushing with 40/379/1 receiving). I think it's time recognize that Jackson is not going to be an elite fantasy RB in St. Louis. The coaching staff can declare that they will rely on the rushing game as often as they like and even try to implement that plan, but as I noted above, Jackson has a huge bulls-eye painted on his chest and back. Everyone knows he's the one true weapon the Rams have to rely upon.

Too many parts of the Rams' offense have degraded to subpar levels for Jackson to excel in fantasy terms. Those drafting Jackson in the top-five or even top-10 fantasy RBs are in for many frustrating weeks during 2009.