Faceoff - ILB DQwell Jackson, Cleveland Browns

Posted 7/15, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Sigmund Bloom

When you draft a linebacker early as the cornerstone of your IDP team, you generally want someone who is a dynamic, game-changing player that inspires respect and fear in his opponents. D'Qwell Jackson hasn't yet turned into that kind of linebacker, but that shouldn't stop you from taking him as one of the first 10 linebackers off the board and your LB1.

Jackson didn't make many highlight plays last year, but ending up on SportsCenter isn't worth any fantasy points, so it didn't hinder Jackson from having a standout fantasy season. He finished in a tie at the No. 3 linebacker (using FBG scoring) with Patrick Willis, behind only the hard-to-reproduce sack-laden seasons of DeMarcus Ware and James Harrison. It might be unreasonable to expect Jackson to end up in the top five once again, but it's just as unreasonable to expect him to drop out of the top ten, because all of the factors that made him a fantasy stud in 2008 will line up once again in 2009.

The Browns ranked second behind only the Raiders (and ahead of the monumentally woeful Lions) in rushing attempts against last year. With the transition to a new coaching and front office regime and a QB controversy that might be decided by who is less inept in training camp, the Browns are destined to be on the losing side of most of their games again this year, giving Jackson plenty of opportunity to stay among the fantasy elite. That new regime has already taken a liking to Jackson, with new head coach Eric Mangini saying "He's pretty much in the frame at the end of every play. That's always what you look for." He wasn't speaking to IDP fantasy GMs, but he might as well have been. Jackson will occupy the weakside inside linebacker position once again, and since Mangini's defense is similar to departed head coach Romeo Crennel's (they both come from the Belichick coaching tree), that's one more assurance that Jackson's tackle opportunities will remain just as robust as they did last year.

Jackson should remain close to, or even at the high level of production he established last year, but there is a chance he could even exceed it. He's playing for a new contract, and he's entering his fourth season in the league. His numbers took a big leap from year two to year three, and he is just now entering his prime. Jackson's consensus staff ranking of LB11 implies healthy downside from his LB3 finish last year, but the reality is that there's actually some daylight for upside and a finish in the Top 2, something his ranking clearly does not reflect. Your leaguemates will opt for gaudier talents like Patrick Willis and Jon Beason to fill their No. 1 LB slot rounds before you get the same level of production by taking D'Qwell Jackson.

Downside - by Jene Bramel

Admittedly, it would appear that I've been all over the place on D'Qwell Jackson over the years. I've made the argument that Jackson has the talent to be one of the more productive 3-4 ILBs, but tempered the argument with concerns that he's been unable to dominate his surrounding cast in the tackle department and hadn't been much of a big play linebacker. I felt it was pretty clear that our consensus 2008 preseason ranking of 37 for Jackson was underrating him, but I was equally adamant in my belief that Jackson didn't have LB2+ upside. A year later, Jackson is the 12th-ranked LB among the FBG IDP staff after a 96-solo, two-sack, three-interception 2008 season that ranked him in the top ten. And three of my colleagues have Jackson ranked seventh overall.

There will be no more wishy-washy, mixed signals this season. I've got Jackson ranked 19th as we enter training camp season and I think he's likely to be over-drafted as a LB1 in many leagues this year.

A few things may be falsely inflating Jackson's 2009 expectations. Specifically, I don't think either Jackson's 96 solos or 58 assists are repeatable. Jackson may have projected to 92 solos had he played a full 16-game season in 2007, but he's never consistently out-tackled his LILB counterparts in Cleveland. Last year, he barely out-tackled the LILB platoon of Andra Davis and Leon Williams after failing to do so on a per game basis in 2007. I think Jackson's most likely solo tackle projection is much closer to 85 than 95, which puts him squarely in the LB2 tier. Next, Jackson's 58 assisted tackles stick out like a sore thumb. That's 14 more than any other linebacker in 2008 and more than double his 2007 number. It's an anomaly that likely equaled nearly 10 extra solo tackles in most scoring systems and it won't happen again in 2009.

Drafting a linebacker with the expectation of him equaling career highs in every category when past history suggests an anomalous year is a recipe for trouble. Don't be the owner that reaches for Jackson as your LB1 this season. Let him come to you as a mid range LB2, where you'll bypass the risk and freeroll for his potential upside.