Faceoff - RB Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers

Posted 8/12, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jeff Haseley

The 2008 season was a disappointment for Ryan Grant considering he was so dominant the season prior. Lingering injuries are mainly to blame for his slow start, but he eventually picked up the pace finishing as the 12th ranked RB after week eight. Grant was one of five RBs that finished with 300 carries or more last year, but he managed only 3.9 yards per carry and finished with only four rushing TDs. Grant's slow start, combined with the productive Packers passing game and a little bad luck, resulted in a season that was less productive than his breakout 2007 season.

What's to like about Grant as a starting RB for your fantasy team?

• Health - Grant is 100% fully healed from his lingering injuries that kept him from being active in training camp and preseason last year. A full year of good health should bring at least a top 15 finish simply due to his involvement on a solid offensive team that averaged 26.2 points per game last year.
• Dominance of the Packers RB role - Grant had 267 more carries than his next closest teammate in 2008. He is clearly the first option as the team's primary rushing threat. In an age where teams are progressing to two and even three RBs carrying the load, The Packers are among the few that mostly feature one primary RB.
• His current ADP as of mid-July is overall 31-RB17. That's a mid-third round pick in 12-team re-draft leagues, which equates to a RB2 for your team. How many RB2 options have 300-carry potential? Maybe Thomas Jones, but the Packers offense is more potent.
• In 56 carries against the Vikings, a team known to have a strong run defense, Grant has averaged 5.41 yards per carry. Against division foes in the NFC North, he has a career 5.1 yards per carry average.

2009 rushing projection

Grant averaged 5.1 YPC in 2007 and 4.2 YPC after week nine in 2008. He should have somewhere between those two numbers in 2009 - we'll say 4.4 YPC to be on the safe side. He scored a TD every 23.5 carries in 2007 and every 78.0 carries in 2008. An average of those two would be a TD once every 50 carries. If he has 250 carries, that's five TDs.

• 4.4 YPC + 250 carries = 1100 yards, 5 TDs
• 4.4 YPC + 275 carries = 1210 yards, 5.5 TDs
• 4.4 YPC + 300 carries = 1320 yards 6 TDs

That's his floor. Grant has the ability, opportunity and desire to finish as a top 15 RB in 2009. If his YPC increases or if he scores more TDs, he has the very real possibility of reaching the Top 10. The difference between Grant being a Top 20 RB and a Top 10 RB is whether or not he puts the ball in the end zone. The Packers had nine TD passes last year of 20+ yards or more. That's nine drives that ended before Grant had a chance to score. Aaron Rodgers had four rushing TDs, including three from the one-yard line. The opportunity for Grant to score was there last year, but he unfortunately saw the bad side of luck that resulted in scores by someone other than him. He'll be healthier this year and you can bet he'll have something to prove. Grant is someone you can draft as a RB2 that is more than capable of putting up first round numbers.

Downside - by Colin Dowling

I'm baffled as to the love fantasy owners have for Ryan Grant. Here are some facts:

• Grant went undrafted. While there have been some undrafted players to surprise in the NFL, the list is not long of running backs that had long, productive careers after being undrafted.
• Grant was the 4th best running back in the 2007 Giants training camp. As a result, he received his walking papers. The Packers, desperate for someone to run the ball, latched on to him.
• Grant averages 78 total yards per game for his career and is being selected as the 16th running back off the board on average.

For comparison...

• Thomas Jones averages 74 yards per game and is being drafted as RB22.
• Joseph Addai averages 83.5 yards per game and is being drafted as RB24.
• Larry Johnson averages 102 yards per game and is being drafted as RB25.
• Derrick Ward (a player the Giants deemed as being better then Grant) averages 91 yards per game and is being drafted as RB26.

So despite the fact that he wasn't highly regarded coming in to the league, wasn't highly regarded by his first team, and doesn't compare favorably to rushers you can pick well after him, Ryan Grant is STILL being thought of as a potential top-15 running back.

I am of the opinion that Grant is a mediocre talent that found himself in a great situation. And I'm big enough to admit that such a thing is more valuable then a great talent in a bad situation. But let's get real: Ryan Grant is valuable because he is the starting running back in a good offense, not because he is a great player. As such, his value is a little bit scary and his job security tenuous; running back Deshawn Wynn is getting rave reviews in camp and Coach Mike McCarthy has indicated that he'd like to use Brandon Jackson more often as well. There is nothing -- and I mean NOTHING -- in Ryan Grant's past performance to indicate that he will continue getting the ball 20 times a game at the expense of the Packers' other rushers. Even worse, Grant is being selected as the 16th running back in fantasy drafts yet he has NEVER finished higher then 17th among rushers. Such a draft position indicates that folks are still thinking about his 2007 campaign (where he became the bell cow in Week 8 and finished 17th overall) rather then focusing on 2008 when the Packers offense was exceptional and Grant was, as expected, pretty average. Even worse, folks seem to be ignoring that Grant was essentially a non-factor in the passing game in 2008 after catching 30 passes in 2007. And if he's going to be a top-15 back, he'd better either catch a ton of balls or score quite a few touchdowns...and for his career he averages about 0.4 touchdowns and 1.6 receptions per game. Ouch.

I'm not suggesting that Ryan Grant won't play a big role in the Packers offense this season. Chances are he'll get the bulk of the 1st and 2nd down carries available and catch a few passes. I AM suggesting, however, that he isn't talented enough to keep Wynn and Jackson on the bench and even if he was, the Packers are going to look to pass in the redzone more then rush the ball. Add it all up and there are players with better career production and just as much (or more) upside then Grant that can be had much later in your draft.