Faceoff - RB Earnest Graham, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Posted 7/7, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Colin Dowling

Let's get this out of the way early: Derrick Ward is a very good running back who just inked a deal to come in and help shoulder the load in Tampa. It would be silly to think that Ward is strictly going to be a backup to Graham. With that said, where does Earnest Graham wind up when the dust has settled? What kind of production can be counted on and is it worth the draft pick necessary to secure his services?

Here's where things get interesting: Graham's average draft position is criminally low. He can be had at the end of the eight round after 40 other running backs have been selected. He is available after player like Le'Ron McClain, Rashard Mendenhall, and Tim Hightower, each of whom is inarguably a backup for their teams. The "high side" of Earnest Graham comes down to the value he offers at the position in which he can be drafted.

There are three possible scenarios regarding Graham this year. He could start for Tampa and have 250+ touches. He could split time with the clearly capable Ward and end up with closer to 180-200 touches. Or he could be pushed in to being a backup and ride the pine except for the occasional breather for Ward. In the first scenario (starting running back), a draft spot of RB41 is insane and the value offered is off the charts. Rushers who receive more than 200 touches have no business lasting until the eighth round. In the second scenario (splitting the backfield touches with Ward) Graham still offers great value. He should easily perform on par with players like Ray Rice, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Rashard Mendenhall. Only in the third scenario wherein he's pushed to the bench does his value become questionable. But even then, an eighth-round selection of a player who should receive plenty of opportunity is a gamble worth taking.

Graham and Ward complement each other nicely. Graham is a short, compact rusher capable of going up the middle or around the end. Even if Ward becomes a bell cow of sorts, Graham should still see a nice amount of touches. Just as importantly, Graham has shown the ability to find the endzone so even if his carry and yardage totals lag, he can still score plenty of fantasy points.

Our projections show Graham getting about 800 total yards and five or six touchdowns. Those are nice numbers for a player available so late. And in the event Graham wins the starting job outright and sends Derrick Ward to the bench -- a possible scenario not getting nearly enough attention -- then you will have found a steal in the late mid rounds of your draft.

Downside - by Mark Wimer

When the Buccaneers signed Derrick Ward to a three-year, $13-million deal, with $9.25-million during the first two years, they paid him to be the lead back in their committee. Earnest Graham will make about half of the sum that Ward is to be paid during that same two-year period. As Tampa's running back coach Steve Logan stated on the third of June "Earnest has a lot of power and is very quick in short spaces," Logan said. "Derrick has a little more speed...and might give us a little bit more plays outside. I see a nice complement between those two." What I see is a committee in which Ward will see the majority of work during the year, spelled by Graham when Ward is puffing from a long run or when Ward has tweaked a muscle and needs to rest for a minute.

Graham seems resigned to a role this year similar to what he performed while teamed with Warrick Dunn during 2008, stating in late March (after Ward was signed): "I think I only averaged about 13 or 14 carries a game last year," Graham said. "It felt good to be able to do that. I was a little fresher towards the end (of his season)." Thirteen carries a game (or less) isn't going to lead to impressive fantasy stats, friends.

Ward developed into an able receiver during the last two years in New York, with 26/179/1 receiving (a 6.9 yards-per-catch average) during 2007 and then 41/384/0 receiving last year (a 9.4 average). During Graham's 2007 campaign he snagged 49/324/0 (a 6.6 average) through the air, then dipped down to 23/174/0 (a 7.6 average) during 10 games last year when he was competing for catches with Dunn, another good pass-catching RB who handled 47/330/0 receiving last year across from Graham. It appears to me that Ward is the superior receiver out of the backfield, which means he'll see the majority of work in third-down situations, in addition to more touches on first- and second-downs.

Another reason I'm down on Graham's prospects this year is that he is coming off an ankle ligament injury that cost him six games last year. All reports indicate that the injury is fully healed, but for such a blue-collar player who wasn't an explosive back to begin with, I am leery that Graham may have lost enough speed to make him even more mediocre than before.

In conclusion, I am of the opinion that Earnest Graham will be the junior partner in the Tampa Bay rushing attack - doing just enough to hold Derrick Ward back from appearing among the Top 25 fantasy RBs by the end of the season.